Amy Snover – 91探花News /news Tue, 14 Jun 2022 16:13:34 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=6.9.4 Q&A: Amy Snover, outgoing director of the 91探花Climate Impacts Group /news/2022/06/10/qa-with-amy-snover-outgoing-director-of-the-uw-climate-impacts-group/ Fri, 10 Jun 2022 20:18:00 +0000 /news/?p=78800 For over a quarter of a century, the 91探花 has blended science and decision-making to help the Pacific Northwest region prepare for a changing climate. For the past 10 of those years, director has been at the helm.

Amy Snover
Amy Snover

Snover recently that she will retire on June 15 and plans to travel and spend time outdoors with her husband. Jason Vogel will act as interim director, and four senior staff members 鈥 Vogel, Meade Krosby, Guillaume Mauger and Crystal Raymond 鈥 will together carry out Snover鈥檚 duties until a new director is hired in the fall.

Snover’s impact on the local community isn鈥檛 going unnoticed: King County declared June 7, 2022, as 鈥溾 and celebrated at the Washington Park Arboretum. During her last week on campus, 91探花News sat down with Snover to reflect on what she鈥檚 learned in almost 25 years of climate preparedness work.

When did you join the Climate Impacts Group?

AS: I was finishing up a 91探花doctorate in chemistry in 1998, and I wasn鈥檛 seeing a path that I wanted to walk down, so I took a leave of absence from graduate school to try to figure things out. , late professor of marine and environmental affairs, had just started the Climate Impacts Group. He was frustrated by the global nature of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and climate change assessments; he wanted to work on climate change, climate impacts and policy responses at a scale where people actually make decisions.

I was trying to find a way to connect science and decision-making and to work on what I cared about, which was the environment of the Pacific Northwest. I worked for Ed, helping to organize the first conference on the impacts of climate change on the Northwest, while on leave from graduate school. After finishing school, I went to work at CIG in 1999 as a postdoc, and I鈥檝e basically been there ever since [laughs].

The Climate Impacts Group just celebrated its 25th anniversary, and you鈥檝e been affiliated with the group for most of that time. How has CIG changed during your tenure?

In the late 90s, there was very little research on what climate change meant for the region, or what we should do to prepare for impacts. Our evolution has been moving from where we didn鈥檛 know much, to having done lots of the science necessary to actually know what impacts to expect. We鈥檝e built awareness of the need to prepare for those impacts, and also the capacity in the region to do that preparation.

At the same time, people have started paying more attention to climate change. Part of that is because we鈥檙e harping on it, and part of it is because the world is changing. Now people who got their degrees at the UW, and have worked with the Climate Impacts Group, are in planning positions all around the region.

How has our region changed in terms of climate preparedness?

I have this saying, especially for people who worry about climate change, that the happy secret is how much work is going on, especially in our region, to prepare for climate impacts. Of course, there鈥檚 also the reality of the glass only being half full 鈥 there鈥檚 still not nearly enough being done to prepare for the changes we know are coming, not enough urgency, not enough concern. But over time we鈥檝e just seen more awareness of the fact that climate change actually matters for people and this region. I think there鈥檚 an emerging awareness that it matters now.

Another change that鈥檚 happened more recently is there鈥檚 so much more awareness of the distributional impacts of climate change 鈥 that many communities because of their positions, exposures, marginalization, etc., are more at risk than others. Part of preparing for climate change is making sure that those inequities are not only recognized but addressed.

What CIG projects 鈥 past, current or future 鈥 stand out to you as fulfilling the goal of regional climate preparedness?

The thing that jumps to mind is an old one, but we鈥檙e all really proud of it: In 2007 we published a for local governments that we co-wrote with King County on preparing for climate change. It was really widely used around the country, and the world, on how to think about climate risks and preparation in the context of local government and do something on a local level.

It鈥檚 not as flashy, but what comes to mind is that this kind of thinking is now embedded in all these different places, all over the region and the state. It鈥檚 a long list of smaller things. There鈥檚 a park in Tacoma that was redesigned because of sea level rise. Our state Department of Transportation considers future climate risks in all its project designs and long-term plans. Our state鈥檚 protocol for cleaning up toxic waste sites has been adapted to consider climate change. All those examples have some climate science embedded in the plans or the decisions.

A bigger recent highlight was a partnership with Washington Sea Grant to develop new sea level rise scenarios that were very locally specific, where people could look up different locations on the coast to see how much sea level is expected to change in a specific place, with different levels of certainty. It really advanced people鈥檚 ability to do risk-based planning.

Looking forward, CIG recently got significant NOAA funding for a five-year collaboration focused on advancing climate resilience for and with front-line communities in the Northwest. It鈥檚 a partnership with 10 different organizations, including the Affiliated Tribes of NW Indians, Front and Centered, and others. This is an exciting opportunity for us to build new partnerships and deepen existing ones to support coastal tribal communities and rural communities in achieving their own climate resilience goals. I鈥檓 definitely excited to see how it unfolds.

What would you say to people who feel depressed or hopeless in the face of climate change?

What I always say and think to myself is that, no matter how bad it looks, the future isn鈥檛 actually written yet. What that means is that we have a choice. And yes, it’s hard, it’s really complicated, nobody knows all the details of how to reorient our lives, our society, our communities and our businesses to address the existential need for both reducing and preparing for climate change. And yet 鈥 the future isn鈥檛 written. Every day, we as individuals, we as society, still have that chance to help create the future we want.

Climate was originally thought of as an environmental issue. But increasingly, people are seeing that climate is embedded in every aspect of ecology and society. When climate changes, everything is affected.

No matter what you do, or what your skills are, you can have a role in shaping that future and thinking about how we prepare for and reduce climate change. Early on it seemed like you had to be a scientist or an engineer to have a role in this issue, but that鈥檚 not true at all. Everyone is implicated in building a resilient society, by which I mean: everyone is responsible, and everyone has something to give.

 

For information, contact Snover at aksnover@uw.edu or Climate Impacts Group communications manager Tess Wrobleski at tessw2@uw.edu听听

 

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91探花Climate Impacts Group, partner organizations launch the Northwest Climate Resilience Collaborative /news/2021/09/27/uw-climate-impacts-group-partner-organizations-launch-the-northwest-climate-resilience-collaborative/ Mon, 27 Sep 2021 19:28:08 +0000 /news/?p=75959 The 91探花Climate Impacts Group, along with nine community, nonprofit and university partners, is a program of community-led, justice-oriented climate adaptation work across Washington, Oregon, Idaho and Montana. The Northwest Climate Resilience Collaborative will be founded with a five-year, $5.6 million grant from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association. The program will be one of eleven across the country funded through NOAA鈥檚 Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments program.

The Northwest Climate Resilience Collaborative will advance efforts to adapt to climate change in frontline communities 鈥 communities that have been excluded from spaces of power and who are disproportionately facing the impacts of climate change.

The program will be led by Director , with several community members and university partners steering the direction of the collaborative as members of the leadership team. The leadership team will include Snover along with Aurora Martin, co-executive director of ; Don Sampson, climate change program director of the ; Jennifer Allen, associate professor and senior fellow of the Institute for Sustainable Solutions at ; and Russell Callender, director of .

鈥淢any incredible organizations across Idaho, Montana, Oregon and Washington are joining with the 91探花Climate Impacts Group to work toward a future where all people and communities can thrive,鈥 Snover said. 鈥淚t is my hope that the Northwest Climate Resilience Collaborative will push the climate adaptation field toward equity and justice. I am proud that the Climate Impacts Group is helping to steward this shift, guided by the leadership of frontline communities, and I am honored by the trust and collaboration from these community partners.鈥

In addition to working with specific rural and coastal tribal communities, the collaborative is designed to accelerate climate adaptation in the Northwest, across the national network, and in state and federal climate resilience programs and policies. This will be accomplished through a variety of initiatives that transfer successful community-based innovations to similar communities; that influence the state and federal entities shaping the laws, policies and investment strategies that will determine future community resilience; and that invest in community capacity to help communities reduce vulnerability to a changing climate while pursuing their own community values.

The Resilience Collaborative is 鈥渂reaking the mold of traditional climate adaptation efforts,鈥 Snover said, 鈥渨hich, while important and necessary, will not be sufficient for preparing for the impacts of climate change. As the climate continues to change, impacting our economies, ecosystems and communities in ways that are varied and inequitable, this work has never been more urgent.鈥

 

Read more on the Climate Impacts Group’s . For more information, contact Snover at aksnover@uw.edu or Climate Impacts Group communications manager Tess Wrobleski at tessw2@uw.edu. 听听

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By the numbers: 91探花in the media in 2019 /news/2020/01/09/by-the-numbers-uw-in-the-media-in-2019/ Fri, 10 Jan 2020 00:33:17 +0000 /news/?p=65531

In 2019, the 91探花 was mentioned in 4,143 news articles around the world. Among those, 91探花experts were quoted 2,290 times: 1,185 in national or international outlets and 1,105 in regional and local outlets.

91探花faculty, researchers, graduate students and staff who engage in these interviews offer their expertise and knowledge to the general public through the news media. These interviews can take significant time and effort, but they help demonstrate day after day the important, relevant and innovative work of the university.

Below are a few highlights from 91探花faculty and researchers quoted in 2019 and the top regional, national and international outlets the 91探花was mentioned in.

 

Margaret O’Mara

鈥淭echnology will always move faster than lawmakers are able to regulate. The answer to the dilemma is to listen to the experts at the outset, and be vigilant in updating laws to match current technological realities.鈥

Margaret O鈥橫ara, professor in the Department of History
鈥 July 5, 2019


Dr. Kemi Doll

鈥淵ou can either approach it from the standpoint that there is something fundamentally wrong with black women鈥檚 bodies, or there鈥檚 something wrong with the way we treat black women and their bodies,鈥 Doll says. 鈥淲e are not going to help women, and we are not going to solve this problem, if we don鈥檛 deal with the problem of race and racism.鈥

Dr. Kemi Doll, assistant professor of obstetrics and gynecology in the 91探花School of Medicine
鈥 October 21, 2019


Robert Winglee

鈥淎s in the Apollo era, innovations being developed for spaceflight have major benefits, often unforeseen at the time, for society.鈥

Robert Winglee, professor in the Department of Earth & Space Sciences
鈥 July 25, 2019


Amy Snover

鈥淥ur impact on the climate is tied up with population in lots of different ways 鈥 what resources people are using, how much industrial production is going on, how much energy is needed for heating, cooling and transportation.鈥

Amy Snover, director of the 91探花Climate Impacts Group
鈥 June 17, 2019


We maintain a list of experts on various topics for use by journalists and archive the 91探花mentions in the media on our website. We’re always looking to expand our experts lists. 91探花researchers who want to be added to our directory for the news media can contact the public information officer for their area of expertise.

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91探花to host Interior Department’s Northwest Climate Science Center /news/2017/08/07/uw-to-host-interior-departments-northwest-climate-science-center/ Mon, 07 Aug 2017 14:04:33 +0000 /news/?p=54307 The 91探花 is the new host for the U.S. Department of the Interior鈥檚 . Boise State University, the University of Montana, Washington State University and Western Washington University are also new partners in the Northwest CSC university consortium.

These five universities were selected as the CSC host and consortium partners after an open competition and extensive review by scientific experts. They will work as part of the collaborative network that defines the Northwest CSC. This includes working closely with federal, state and tribal entities, including those responsible for managing and protecting the land, water and natural resources of the Northwest, to develop actionable climate science and decision support tools.

On the academic side, the center will be led by university director of the Climate Impacts Group in the 91探花College of the Environment. The Northwest CSC will also be a member organization of , a new College of the Environment initiative. Snover will work closely with the U.S. Geological Survey center director, , and at each of the consortium universities.

The Northwest CSC is one of eight regional dedicated to delivering science that helps wildlife, water, land and people adapt to a changing climate. The national network also includes two new five-year host agreements to the , based in North Carolina, and the , based in Anchorage.

The CSCs are deeply rooted in federal-university partnerships. Each CSC is hosted by a public university, composed of a multi-institution consortium and managed by the USGS . These partnerships ensure access to a broad range of scientific expertise, production of high-quality science and sharing of funds, resources and facilities. University involvement also allows the CSCs to introduce students to the idea of 鈥渃o-producing鈥 science, in which scientists and decision-makers work closely together to ensure scientific research and products are usable and directly address real-world problems.

Amy Snover
Amy Snover

鈥淲e are excited to bring to the Northwest CSC the 鈥檚 model for co-producing decision-relevant science that can help sustain our region鈥檚 prized natural and cultural resources in an uncertain future,” Snover said. “Our new Northwest CSC consortium will focus on helping our region better understand the changes that lie ahead and develop sound resource management strategies in light of those changes.鈥

Over the past seven years, the previous university consortium established a robust partner network across the region and helped to define and refine the scope and goals of the Northwest CSC.

鈥淲e look forward to collaborating across the region to build on the CSC鈥檚 strong foundation,鈥 Snover said.

While this announcement marks the beginning of a transition period for the center, its core mission 鈥 to provide services to regional resource managers in the form of climate adaptation science, syntheses, tools development, outreach efforts and training 鈥 remains the same. A will continue to provide crucial input and guidance. The center鈥檚 annual , which provides an opportunity for students and early career professionals to improve their climate science knowledge and skills, will also remain a priority.

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For more information, contact Snover at 206-221-0222 or aksnover@uw.edu, or 91探花Climate Impacts Group communications manager Heidi Roop at聽206-616-1352 or hroop@uw.edu.

Note: The fiscal year 2018 president’s budget request for the USGS changes the name of the Northwest Climate Science Center to the “Northwest Climate Adaptation Science Center.”

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Fires and floods: North Cascades federal lands prepare for climate change /news/2014/10/29/fires-and-floods-north-cascades-federal-lands-prepare-for-climate-change/ Wed, 29 Oct 2014 15:00:45 +0000 /news/?p=34335 In a country that boasts an awe-inspiring system of national parks, the Pacific Northwest may be especially lucky. But even remote parks and forests can’t escape the problem of human-induced climate change.

Lake in the Picket Range of North Cascades National Park. Photo: Victor Mesny Photography

Future shifts could affect everything from how people access the parks to what activities are possible once they arrive 鈥 not to mention the plants and animals that call those places home.

For a report released this week, 91探花 scientists worked with federal agencies to pinpoint natural resources sensitive to a warmer climate in the North Cascades region, and outline detailed management responses to minimize the adverse impacts on land and in water.

The report, “,” was led by the U.S. Forest Service’s Portland-based . It is the largest climate change adaptation effort on federal lands to date.

The partnership took a wide view for managing federal lands in the North Cascades. Participants in the were the Mount Baker-Snoqualmie National Forest, the Okanogan-Wenatchee National Forest, the North Cascades National Park Complex and Mount Rainier National Park. The UW’s provided scientific expertise.

“It鈥榮 critical that we work across agency boundaries to ensure that techniques for responding to climate change are effective,” said editor , a 91探花affiliate professor of environmental and forest science and a research biologist at the Pacific Northwest Research Station.

In a region famous for its snowy peaks and lush greenery, the report emphasizes impacts related to hydrologic systems. Watersheds in the North Cascades are expected to become increasingly dominated by rain rather than snow. This will cause more fall and winter floods on much of the roughly 10,000 miles of roads in the North Cascades.

person standing at road edge
A ranger surveys the damage to Nisqually Road after Nov. 2006 floods at Mount Rainier National Park. Photo: National Park Service

“Events like the floods of 2006 that closed Mount Rainier National Park for six months affect both access and infrastructure,” said , superintendent of Mount Rainier National Park. “If there are techniques that can reduce the damage, we need to take a hard look at them.”

Possible adaptation tactics for federal lands identified in the report include hardening stream crossings with rocks, stabilizing stream banks, designing culverts for higher flows and upgrading bridges to deal with higher flows.

Co-author , now a 91探花graduate student in civil and environmental engineering, first looked at landslides and climate change as a federal scientist participating in this report. She since began a 91探花doctorate funded by the U.S. Department of the Interior’s , a regional center co-led by the UW, to look at climate change, flooding and roadways.

The report also addresses increased wildfire and insect outbreaks east of the Cascades as a result of a warmer climate. On the heels of a record fire season in Eastern Washington, the authors offer recommendations for how to contain future fires and fast-track forest restoration.

“If you think about the big fires this past year 鈥 the Carlton Complex fire, the largest fire in Washington state history 鈥 that could become the new normal in the next 30 to 40 years as it continues to warm,” Peterson said.

The report suggests more widespread forest thinning and prescribed burning to help stop future wildfires from spreading out of control.

Peterson led the three-year project with co-editors , a former Forest Service climate scientist now with Seattle City Light, and , a science adviser with the National Park Service based in Bellingham. Both earned their doctorates at the UW.

Other 91探花contributors include , associate professor of forest resources, who provided science on how climate change will affect wildlife. , a 91探花affiliate professor in fisheries and now a research scientist at NOAA, and Maureen Ryan, a former 91探花postdoctoral researcher, provided expertise on climate change and fish.

“This report is a meeting of current science about future changes with on-the-ground practitioner knowledge about what our natural resources look like, what the management challenges are, and what opportunities they have to prepare for those changes,” said , director of the 91探花Climate Impacts Group. “The really important output of this report is a practical list of adaptation tactics that are consistent with the changes we expect.”

Other co-authors are and at the UW; at the Forest Service; , a former 91探花researcher now with the U.S. Geological Survey; , a forester at the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency; and , a former 91探花researcher now at the University of Notre Dame. The work was funded by the U.S. Forest Service’s Pacific Northwest Research Station.

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For more information, contact Snover at 206-221-0222 or aksnover@uw.edu and Peterson at 206-732-7812 or wild@uw.edu.

Adapted from a press release from the U.S. Forest Service. The Forest Service media contact is Rachel LaMedica, 503-808-2279, rmlamedica@fs.fed.us.

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91探花scientist a lead author on third National Climate Assessment /news/2014/05/06/uw-scientist-a-lead-author-on-third-national-climate-assessment/ Wed, 07 May 2014 00:49:18 +0000 /news/?p=31979 91探花 climate scientist , director of the 91探花, is a lead author on the Northwest chapter of the National Climate Assessment, published May 6 by the U.S. federal government.

The report, “,” includes national overviews and ten regional chapters. Snover was one of two convening lead authors on the 11-page concerning impacts to Washington, Oregon and Idaho.

  • : Read the
  • KUOW with Amy Snover
  • on Northwest climate impacts

“In the Northwest, we have identified leading risks of concern, and we have the good news that more communities are working to understand and apply this science,” Snover said.

“The take-home question I ask is: Are we ready for these changes?” Snover said. “I would argue that it’s time to take a clear-eyed look at these risks, and to have an engaged conversation about how we’re going to prepare for them.”

The four key impacts for the Northwest region are:

  • Water-related challenges from earlier snowmelt that would reduce summer water supplies.
  • Coastal vulnerabilities due to sea-level rise, erosion, flooding and ocean acidification.
  • Forestry impacts with more wildfires, insect outbreaks and tree disease.
  • Agricultural impacts from changes to temperatures, water supplies and pests.

The agricultural sector will also benefit from a longer growing season that may compensate for potential risks from changes to irrigation, pests and disease, Snover said.

2014 National Climate Assessment

The other lead author for the Northwest chapter is , a former 91探花scientist now at Oregon State University. Snover and Mote also edited a聽 270-page report published in November, “,” that provides more detail for the Northwest region.

The new assessment was written by more than 300 U.S. experts. It includes national overviews and regional summaries on topics such as water, energy, agriculture, transportation, human health, tribal lands, oceans, rural communities and public policy. For the first time it also assesses progress in climate change adaptation and mitigation.

The other authors of the Northwest chapter are at Oregon State University; at the University of Idaho; at the National Wildlife Federation; , a former 91探花scientist now at the U.S. Geological Survey; Richard Raymondi at the Idaho Department of Water Resources; and Spencer Reeder at Cascadia Consulting Group.

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For more information, contact Snover at 206-221-0222 or aksnover@uw.edu.

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What climate change means for federally protected marine species /news/2013/12/10/what-climate-change-means-for-federally-protected-marine-species/ Tue, 10 Dec 2013 19:48:33 +0000 /news/?p=29687 As the Endangered Species Act nears its 40th birthday at the end of December, conservation biologists are coming to terms with a danger not foreseen in the early 1970s: global climate change.

Federal fisheries scientists have published a special section in this month’s issue of that outlines some considerations for coming decades. A 91探花 climate scientist helped biologists determine the long-term forecast for aquatic animals.

Chinook are the largest species of salmon. Several populations are listed as threatened or endangered under the Endangered Species Act. Photo: Pacific Northwest National Lab

“When you look at projections for future climate change, there’s a big range of possible futures. And decision makers or biologists assessing impacts on a particular species want to know what’s the most likely future 鈥 they don’t want to use this huge range of uncertainty,” said , director of the UW-based .

Eight papers in the special section, led by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s National Marine Fisheries Service, include case studies for species ranging from chinook salmon to steelhead to 82 different types of coral.

Snover is lead author of a on choosing and using climate-change scenarios to inform policy for endangered marine species.

“We tried to distill what climate scientists know in a way that would be useful for conservation biologists,” Snover said.

Choice of scenario will depend on the species 鈥 a salmon that moves between mountain streams and the open ocean, for example, is different from an animal that scurries along a sandy beach or that clings to a rock at the bottom of the ocean. The paper gives a choose-your-own-adventure approach to picking an appropriate set of climate projections.

“People who are trying to make decisions that account for climate change are often bewildered or overwhelmed by the large number of scenarios that are available, and think in many cases that they’re too uncertain to be used,” Snover said. “We’re establishing a strategy for choosing from this vast array of scenarios, and strategies that are defensible in litigious situations like the (Endangered Species Act).”

The paper’s broad-based approach could also apply to land animals, she said.

The paper also includes a “reality check” table to counter some common misperceptions about climate models 鈥 for example, that they differ too much to predict any useful trends, or that their uncertainty could be reduced by somehow finding the best model to use.

Trends that are certain to affect marine species, Snover said, include increasing ocean acidification, warmer water temperatures and changes in level and timing of stream flows.

“Despite the significant uncertainty that remains about potential future climates, we know enough to assess impacts and incorporate that information into conservation decisions,” Snover said.

Co-authors on the paper are Nathan Mantua, a former 91探花scientist now at NOAA’s National Marine Fisheries Service in Santa Cruz, Calif.; Jeremy Littell, a former 91探花scientist now at the U.S. Geological Survey’s Alaska Climate Science Center in Anchorage; Michael Alexander at NOAA’s Earth System Research Laboratory in Boulder, Colo.; Michelle McClure at NOAA’s National Marine Fisheries Service in Seattle; and Janet Nye at Stony Brook University. The research was partially supported by NOAA through the UW-based .

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For more information, contact Snover at 206-221-0222 or aksnover@uw.edu.

Michelle McClure is corresponding author for the special section. See NOAA’s news release, ““

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More wildfires, earlier snowmelt, coastal threats top Northwest climate risks /news/2013/11/04/more-wildfires-earlier-snowmelt-coastal-threats-top-northwest-climate-risks/ Mon, 04 Nov 2013 20:28:32 +0000 /news/?p=29151 The Pacific Northwest will face increased risks from declining forest health, earlier snowmelt and an array of coastal issues, according to a new comprehensive report on what climate change means for Washington, Oregon and Idaho.

, director of the 91探花’s , was one of three editors of the 270-page published this week by Island Press.

“As we looked across both economic and ecological dimensions, the three that stood out were less snow, more wildfires and challenges to the coastal environment and infrastructure,” she said.

The report, coordinated by Oregon State University’s , is the first regional climate assessment in more than a decade. This document and the were created as part of the U.S. . Washington and Oregon produced state-level reports in 2009 and 2010.

Editor at OSU said this report updates the science and addresses some new dimensions 鈥 including how climate change will affect human health and Northwest tribes that rely on natural resources.

“Studies are showing that snowmelt is occurring earlier and earlier and that is leading to a decline in stream flows in summer,” Mote said. “Northwest forests are facing a huge increase in wildfires, disease and other disturbances that are both direct and indirect results of climate change. And coastal issues are mounting and varied, from sea-level rise and inundation to ocean acidification.”

In the Northwest, roughly 2,800 miles of coastal roads are in the 100-year flood plain, and some highways may face inundation with just 2 feet of sea-level rise. Seas are expected to rise as much as 56 inches, or nearly 5 feet, by the year 2100, the report said.

Earlier snowmelt is a concern for Northwest dams and reservoirs. The Columbia River basin has a storage capacity smaller than its annual flow volume and is “ill-equipped to handle the projected shift to earlier snowmelt 鈥 and will likely be forced to pass much of these earlier flows out of the system,” the report said.

Earlier peak stream flow may significantly reduce summer hydroelectric power production, the report concluded, and slightly increase winter power production.

The report includes information from improved climate models that suggest the Northwest will warm by 3 to 14 degrees Fahrenheit by the end of this century. For comparison, the region warmed 1.3 degrees between 1895 and 2011.

“The lower (end of the) range will only be possible if (global) greenhouse gas emissions are significantly reduced,” Mote said.

Precipitation is harder to project, the report noted, with forecasts ranging from 10 percent less rain to 18 percent more rain by 2100. Most models suggest that more precipitation will fall as rain, and earlier snowmelt will change river flow patterns.

Pinpointing the impacts of temperature and precipitation shifts on agriculture will be difficult, said co-author at the University of Idaho.

“As carbon dioxide levels rise, yields will increase for some plants, and more rainfall in winter could mean wetter soils in the spring, benefitting some crops,” Eigenbrode said. “Those same conditions could adversely affect other crops. It is very difficult to say how changing climate will affect agriculture overall in the Northwest 鈥 but we can say that the availability of summer water will be a concern.”

Pests, disease and invasive species may also affect agriculture and forestry practices.

The Northwest has not yet been vulnerable to many climate-related health risks, the report noted, but future impacts of climate change are more likely to be negative than positive. Health concerns include increased morbidity and mortality from heat-related illness, air pollution and allergenic disease, and the emergence of infectious diseases.

Regional agencies can use the report鈥檚 findings to decide where to build new construction, what crops to grow where, and how to manage water resources, Snover said.

“Whether the ultimate consequences of the climate impacts outlined in this report are severe or mild depends in part on how well we prepare our communities, economies and natural systems for the changes we know are coming,” Snover said.

The report was funded by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the Oregon Legislature through its support of the Oregon Climate Change Research Institute, and in-kind contributions from the authors’ institutions.

The lead editor is at OSU. , an oceanographer at the 91探花Applied Physics Laboratory, contributed expertise on coastal impacts. A total of 31 authors from academic, state, nonprofit and tribal organizations contributed to the report. Other lead authors are Jeff Bethel and Susan Capalbo at OSU; Kathy Lynn at the University of Oregon; Rick Raymondi at the Idaho Department of Water Resources; W. Spencer Reeder at the Cascadia Consulting Group; Patty Glick at the National Wildlife Federation; and Jeremy Littell at the U.S. Geological Survey.

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For more information, contact Snover at 206-221-0222 or aksnover@uw.edu and Mote at 541-737-5694 or pmote@coas.oregonstate.edu. Snover is on travel until Nov. 6 and best reached via e-mail or cell phone.

Adapted from an .

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91探花group part of national report, meeting on adaptation to climate change /news/2013/04/03/uw-group-part-of-national-report-meeting-on-adaptation-to-climate-change/ Wed, 03 Apr 2013 20:15:33 +0000 /news/?p=23844 A string of record-breaking summers and a massive storm in New York City have brought new attention to the effects of climate change and prompted discussions about how to safeguard cities and crops. A 91探花 group that has focused on this question for almost two decades is part of a new report and first-ever national meeting on adapting to the effects of a changing climate.

, director of the UW’s , is one of four co-authors of a national report released this week that outlines the state of adaptation to climate change in the United States. She wrote the chapter on adaptation in the urban environment.

“The past is an increasingly poor guide to the future,” Snover writes. With changes in temperature, precipitation patterns and sea level, she writes: “plans, policies, infrastructure and expectations… must be adjusted accordingly.”

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Snover’s chapter on urban adaptation starts on pg. 56

Overall, the report concludes that despite widespread interest in climate change, most public projects do not take climate change into account, and those that do are still in the risk-assessment and planning stages 鈥 be they building higher seawalls to deal with rising seas, changing zoning codes in anticipation of bigger floods, or including climate change in strategies for municipal water supplies.

“If you want to talk about something that’s changed on the ground to prepare for a changing climate, there are few examples nationwide,” Snover said. But she believes things are changing. “Funders are beginning to put a high priority on implementation, rather than just planning.”

The provides a snapshot of current climate adaptation work and resources. It was sponsored by the John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation and written by university researchers and lead author , a Seattle nonprofit that maintains a database of adaptation tools and case studies.

Snover’s chapter draws on her 15 years of experience working with scientists, government agencies and community groups. Examples come from Chicago, San Francisco, Florida and the Pacific Northwest, which Snover describes as a leader in preparing for climate change. For instance:

  • King County has been concerned about climate change effects for more than a decade, and has integrated climate change into wastewater treatment plant design, flood protection and other projects.
  • The City of Olympia began in 1993 to look at climate change impacts to its downtown, including sea-level rise and flooding, and has recently included ocean rise in the city’s comprehensive plan.
  • Seattle Public Utilities has examined how to protect drinking-water supplies from climate change, and created an early warning system for extreme precipitation and urban flooding. The agency works on climate-change preparations with municipal drinking water utilities nationwide.
  • The Swinomish Tribal Community has examined climate change’s impact on shellfish, fish, cultural sites, flooding hazards, wildfires and road access to its Fidalgo Island tribal lands. It is evaluating ways to protect key low-lying areas from sea-level rise.
  • The Washington State Department of Transportation is part of a federal pilot program to consider climate change’s impacts on critical transportation routes.

Many of the Northwest projects used analyses done by the UW鈥檚 Climate Impacts Group.

Snover is also speaking this week at the first in Denver, Colo. Her session, “Adaptation in the Coastal Context,” considers strategies and goals in coastal areas.

“With sea-level rise, there’s inevitable loss,” Snover said. “So what does successful adaptation to climate change look like? We know the risks we’re planning for, but do we know where we’re trying to end up?”

She will also describe at least one project that has reached the implementation stage: A 237-acre redevelopment project at the Port of Bellingham designed to accommodate sea-level rise.

The meeting is being put on by EcoAdapt, the MacArthur Foundation and other nonprofit organizations.

“We have the knowledge, data and tools necessary for understanding local impacts and developing local strategies,” Snover said. “Preparing for the inevitable impacts of our changing climate, and strengthening our resilience to variability and extremes, are the key challenges for this decade.”

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For more information, contact Snover at 206鈥849-0639 or aksnover@uw.edu.

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