NASA last week that both the 91̽�� STRIVE team and the UW-affiliated EDGE team were selected to lead satellite missions to better understand Earth and improve capabilities to foresee environmental events and mitigate disasters.

STRIVE and EDGE were among four finalists as part of the agency’s Earth System Explorers Program, which conducts principal investigator-led space science missions as recommended by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine 2017 Decadal Survey for Earth Science and Applications from Space.

The total estimated cost of each mission, not including launch, will not exceed $355 million with a mission launch date of no earlier than 2030, stated NASA.

“This was fantastic news. We have been working on this concept for a few years now, and for many of us it is a dream come true. To be able to observe the atmosphere at this level of detail is a tremendous opportunity,” said , a 91̽��professor of atmospheric and climate science, who is leading the STRIVE mission.

Stratosphere-Troposphere Response using Infrared Vertically-resolved light Explorer

, which stands for Stratosphere-Troposphere Response using Infrared Vertically-resolved light Explorer, will examine the regions of the atmosphere where weather forms and the ozone layer sits, yielding new insights into temperature and trace gases in the atmosphere that affect aviation, long-range transport of volcanic smoke and air pollution.

The STRIVE instruments, compact enough to fit into the trunk of a midsize SUV, can make more than 400,000 observations each day. Instead of looking straight down at the Earth, like other missions, the STRIVE instruments angle sideways towards Earth’s surface to capture the atmosphere in greater detail.

“With these observations, we won’t just get measurements of ozone but rather all the chemical species that affect ozone in the stratosphere,” Jaeglé said.

The ozone layer, which absorbs ultraviolet radiation, after severe depletion in the early 2000s, but still requires careful monitoring.

STRIVE represents a technological and scientific quantum leap that will help researchers understand how air pollution circulates following a wildfire or volcanic eruption, for example. Importantly, STRIVE will also aid weather forecasting efforts beyond the typical 10-day window to give people time to prepare for extreme weather events.

“If we can see something propagating from high up — such as large shifts in winds — then we will know that several weeks later it will impact Earth’s surface. Our current weather models cannot predict this connection very well because we don’t really know what is going on at the interface of the stratosphere and troposphere,” Jaeglé added.

The national-scale team includes partners from academia, industry and federal science labs. at the University of Iowa is the deputy principal investigator of STRIVE, and at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center is the project scientist. Several NASA Goddard scientists are also involved. Other 91̽��members of STRIVE are professor , assistant professor and affiliate faculty member , all in the 91̽��Department of Atmospheric and Climate Science.

The Earth Dynamics Geodetic Explorer 

, or Earth Dynamics Geodetic Explorer, uses lasers to observe the three dimensional structure of Earth’s surface — including forests, glaciers, ice sheets and sea ice — as it changes. , a senior principal physicist and , a senior research scientist both at the 91̽�� and , a 91̽��associate professor of civil and environmental engineering, are part of the EDGE team, led by from Scripps Institution of Oceanography at the University of California San Diego.

EDGE will be the first global satellite imaging laser altimeter system, according to . The system captures surface detail in high resolution by firing laser pulses at the Earth and recording how long it takes for them to return, making over 150,000 measurements each second. It can also precisely track changes in surface elevation over time to capture how ice sheets and glaciers are responding to climate change over seasonal and longer-term timescales.

“What’s really exciting about EDGE is the level of detail it will measure. Older laser altimetry measurements sample a coarse grid of points on the ground, but with the EDGE data we will be able to see individual trees around Seattle, and small cracks in glaciers in Greenland and Antarctica. Often, it’s the fine-scale processes that drive how the large-scale system changes,” Smith said.

Although the effort will focus on polar regions, forests and coastlines, EDGE is an “everything mission,” Shean said.

“These precise surface elevation change measurements are essential for so many pressing scientific and engineering applications,” he added. “The EDGE data will have implications for sea level rise, natural hazards monitoring, water resource and forest management, and wildfire response. This is also a major milestone for UW, as it formalizes 91̽��leadership and involvement on not one, but two NASA Earth Observation missions. I’m excited to bring students onto the EDGE team and train the next generation of 91̽��researchers who will do amazing things with EDGE data in the coming decades.”

For more information on STRIVE, contact Jaeglé at jaegle@uw.edu.

Methane is a powerful greenhouse gas with strong heat-trapping capabilities. Although there is less methane in the atmosphere than carbon dioxide, the foremost greenhouse gas, researchers attribute . Observations show that methane levels have increased over time, but the factors driving changes in the rate of accumulation remain unclear.

Methane stays in the atmosphere for approximately 10 years before it is broken down, or removed. Researchers need to know how much methane is removed to gauge what percentage of emissions are accumulating in the atmosphere, but the methane removal process is difficult to measure. Historically, researchers have relied on chemistry-climate simulations to predict methane removal, but the accuracy of this approach is debated.

A new 91̽�� study presents a value for methane removal in the — the second layer of Earth’s atmosphere — that is based on satellite data. This value, the first derived from observational methods, is higher than the earlier models indicated, suggesting that more methane is broken down in the stratosphere than previously thought.

“Total methane emissions and removal are large values. Their difference, or imbalance, is a small, but critical value. It determines methane trends over time,” said , a 91̽��professor of atmospheric and climate science who led the study, on Feb. 9.

Humans are the primary source of . Agriculture, waste and fossil fuels all release methane. Natural sources, such as wetlands, also contribute methane to the atmosphere. Methane “sinks,” including soil and chemical reactions in the atmosphere, remove a large portion of the methane contributed by various sources.

Methane removal takes place in both the troposphere, the closest layer to Earth, and the stratosphere above it. If sources and sinks were balanced, methane wouldn’t accumulate in the atmosphere, but human contributions have .

Methane has become an increasingly popular target for those trying to slow climate change for several reasons. Unlike carbon dioxide, which persists in the atmosphere for hundreds of years, methane breaks down after a decade. Limiting human-related methane emissions could curtail global warming faster than targeting carbon dioxide.

“Methane is a very powerful greenhouse gas with a short lifetime, which gives us more control over it. We will be in a better position, policy-wise, if we understand more about how it accumulates,” Fu said.

There are two ways to calculate methane accumulation in Earth’s atmosphere: One way, a top-down approach, begins with observed methane levels in the atmosphere. The other, a bottom-up strategy, is based on individual sources and sinks on Earth. The trouble is, the two methods don’t agree. Bottom-up calculations indicate that sources exceed sinks by far more than the top-down approach.

In the study, Fu and , a 91̽��graduate student in his lab, analyzed publicly available satellite data from 2007 to 2010 to produce a new value for methane removal in the stratosphere. Then, they recalculated the imbalance using this value instead of the model estimates, finding that the bottom-up and top-down results were close to identical.

“Narrowing it down improved our confidence in the methane budget and imbalance estimates, which determines the change in atmospheric methane levels,” Fu said.

That’s not the only benefit, either. Methane reactions in the stratosphere create water vapor, another greenhouse gas, and impact ozone chemistry, impacting the protective ozone layer. These results will help researchers understand the significance of these related reactions.

This study was funded by the Calvin Professorship in Atmospheric Sciences.

For more information, contact Fu at .

The 91̽�� was awarded $2.5 million from the Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation to fund 16 postdoctoral fellows in a number of fields across the College of Arts & Sciences, the College of Engineering and the College of the Environment.

The 91̽��is one of 30 U.S. research universities to receive the funding. The grants support work in a range of natural science disciplines supported by the foundation, including disciplines of astronomy, biology, chemistry, Earth and planetary sciences, ecology materials science, physics and quantum information. Post doctoral fellows will receive between $90,000 and $200,000 for work lasting nine to 24 months.��

Gordon and Betty Moore established the Moore Foundation in 2000 to create positive outcomes for future generations. In pursuit of that vision, the Foundation advances scientific discovery and environmental conservation. It is one of the nation’s leading philanthropies with an endowment of approximately $12 billion and annual grantmaking exceeding $500 million.

In awarding the funds, officials with the Moore Foundation noted the “critical role postdoctoral fellows play in advancing scientific discovery and the importance of maintaining the talent pipeline for science.”

The 91̽��is well known for training future researchers and scientific leaders across disciplines. Many of the post-doctoral fellows in this cohort say they plan to pursue faculty positions, to inspire another generation of scientists.

“The work these postdoctoral researchers are doing will increase our understanding of the planet and the universe, helping to create a better future for all,” said Cecilia Giachelli, associate vice provost for research and a professor of bioengineering. “We are deeply grateful to the Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation for their generous support.”

91̽��News asked the cohort of Moore Foundation postdoctoral fellows to share their research goals. Here’s what they told us:

Arachaporn Anutaliya, Applied Physics Laboratory:

“I’m excited to receive this fellowship because it allows me to study large-scale equatorial waves that move heat through the ocean and shape global climate patterns. Understanding how these waves redistribute heat is essential for improving our understanding of climate variability and global warming. This fellowship supports my goal of building a career in ocean and climate science that connects fundamental research to broader climate understanding.”

Arpit Arora, Department of Astronomy:��

“I am thrilled to receive this fellowship, as it lets me collaborate with the 91̽��experts leading the Rubin Observatory to study dark matter — the invisible substance making up 85% of all matter in the universe. I use computer simulations to model ‘stellar streams,’ which are long trails of stars being torn apart by our galaxy’s gravity. By comparing these simulations with new telescope data, I can use the motion of these stars to map out the hidden influence of dark matter and finally understand how it shapes our universe.”

George Brencher, Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering:

“My research uses satellite data and machine learning to improve measurements of snow and ice that are needed for managing water resources and natural hazards. Rapid advances in Earth observation and machine learning are transforming the field, allowing us to push the limits of what we can observe on Earth from space. This fellowship will allow me to develop new approaches that translate these advances into meaningful, real-world impact.”

Leo Brody, Department of Chemical Engineering:��

“Receiving this fellowship gives me the flexibility to explore a new class of materials that could dramatically lower the cost of turning waste plastics and biomass into useful fuels and chemicals. I am especially excited about replacing rare, expensive catalysts with materials made from Earth-abundant elements like iron, aluminum and carbon. This support will help me prioritize making energy and chemical production cleaner, cheaper and more sustainable.”

Jamie Cochran, Department of Biology:

“I will study the physiology of the freshwater crustacean Hyalella azteca, which is used to understand the impact of aquatic stressors — such as metals or pesticides — on freshwater environments. Just like humans require a specific ratio of salt to water for survival, these shrimp-like crustaceans must regulate their internal balance of ions to water. My project involves trying to determine the mechanisms behind this balance, which could also help us understand other sensitive freshwater creatures. I am grateful to this fellowship for the opportunity to investigate this ecologically significant species.”

Debarati Das, Department of Chemistry:

“As a biochemist, I am keen on pursuing a career in industry or the government sector addressing questions at the interface of chemistry and biology. I find microorganisms particularly fascinating because they are able to live in diverse habitats, from the deep sea to the human body. With the support of the Moore Foundation, I will be able to develop new skills to study how microbes use unique chemistry to adapt to different environmental conditions. This work will help us to understand the critical roles of microorganisms in every ecosystem on our planet.”

Mateo Lopez Espejo, Department of Psychology:

“When we hear a sound, we turn our heads to focus our vision and hearing on the source. This is a process called active sensing. I am excited to investigate the mechanisms behind this process using the fruit fly as a model so that I can take advantage of its genetic tools and fully mapped brain connectivity. The support of this fellowship will be fundamental to help me establish this research plan during my postdoc, and to cement my future career.”

Cassandra Henderson, Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering:��

“I am pleased to accept the Moore Foundation fellowship to support my essential research in preparing Washington communities for climate change. With this assistance, I will be able to continue work on the , which enables long term flood planning that addresses sea level rise.”

Sophia Jannetty, Department of Biology:��

“I use computer simulations to explore how the behavior of individual cells affects the health of our tissues and organs. I am honored to receive the Moore Foundation fellowship, which will allow me to apply this approach to better understand how aging cells and inflammation interact to influence disease. I hope my work can inform more thoughtful strategies for promoting healthy aging.”

Atsushi Matsuda, Department of Biology:

“Electron microscopy reveals extraordinary details inside living cells, but turning these images into accurate three-dimensional reconstructions remains a major challenge. My research aims to overcome this by combining physics-informed machine learning with computer vision to create tools that are broadly usable by biological researchers. I am excited to receive this fellowship because it gives me the freedom to pursue this highly interdisciplinary work at the intersection of biology, computational mechanics and artificial intelligence.”

Hikari Murayama, Department of Atmospheric and Climate Science:��

“Quantifying greenhouse gas emissions was a core pillar of my doctoral work, and this fellowship provides an opportunity to build off of that. We’ll be focusing on historical data: Tracking past methane emissions from oil and gas facilities can give us insight into how emission patterns fluctuate over time. I’m excited to continue developing as an interdisciplinary scholar while also forming my identity as a researcher as I pursue faculty positions.”

Dongmin Shi, Department of Materials Science & Engineering:��

“I am honored to receive support from the Moore Foundation fellowship, which will enable me to pursue innovative, foundational ideas with long-term impact in biomedical engineering. My research focuses on developing wearable biosensors that help monitor and better understand human health. In the future, I aim to become a faculty member who helps translate fundamental scientific discoveries into technologies that improve health care.”

Marta Ulaski, School of Aquatic and Fishery Sciences:

“Healthy rivers are the backbone of thriving salmon and trout populations but we don’t yet know if the places we protect are the ones most at risk from a warming climate. I’m looking forward to combining climate, policy and habitat information in a new way to better understand how river protections support salmon and trout. Ultimately I hope this work will help close the gap between research and conservation practice and provide evidence to guide future policy.”

Corinne Vietorisz, School of Environmental & Forest Sciences:��

“I am very excited to receive the Moore Fellowship, which will allow me to join the Willing Lab at the 91̽��to study how fire-adapted microbes can aid in forest recovery following wildfire. I am continuously amazed by the enormous impacts microorganisms have on our world. My long-term goal is to study how soil microbes — including fungi and bacteria — can improve ecosystem restoration and land management outcomes.”

Samuel Wong, Department of Physics:��

“I am interested in proposing novel ways to test theories beyond the current understanding of fundamental physics, such as searching for new particles and forces. Specifically, my work involves finding ways to use precision measurement techniques to search for these tiny signals of new physics. The 91̽��is a leading center for precision measurement, and the support from the Moore Foundation postdoctoral fellowship will allow me to do this work alongside , 91̽��assistant professor of physics.”

Weiwang Zeng, Department of Chemistry:��

“I am excited to receive this fellowship because it gives me the freedom to take big scientific risks at a crucial stage in my career. I use ultrafast bursts of light in a special range of the electromagnetic spectrum to reveal and control new behaviors in atomically thin quantum materials. With this support, I can build toward an independent research program.”

The American Geophysical Union honored five 91̽�� faculty and researchers from the Earth and space sciences and atmospheric and climate science departments this week at the annual meeting in New Orleans.

Each year, the meeting draws thousands of scientists, educators and policymakers to discover emerging research, discuss hurdles and network. Prior to the meeting, AGU announces awards for individuals who have made significant contributions to Earth and space science and presents them in person during the week.

The theme is, “Where Science Connects Us,” and the 91̽��awardees were recognized for research that advances understanding of natural hazards, the history of Earth, weather and climate change.

Here are the UW’s five recipients and their respective awards:

, a 91̽��assistant professor of Earth and space sciences, studies how magmas form beneath volcanoes. She specializes in work that involves using samples from past volcanic eruptions to examine the behavior of volcanic gases like water, carbon, and sulfur, which can help researchers monitor active volcanoes. Muth received the for early career scientists who have made outstanding contributions to fields of volcanology, geochemistry, and petrology.

, a 91̽��professor of atmospheric and climate science, studies predictability, mountain meteorology and numerical weather prediction. Durran’s recent research focuses on using deep learning to change our current paradigm for numerical weather prediction, seasonal forecasting and climate modeling. He holds a joint position with NVIDIA. Durran received the award for prominent scientists who have made exceptional contributions to the understanding of weather and climate.

, a 91̽��postdoctoral researcher of atmospheric and climate science, studies the formation and evolution of aerosol particles in the atmosphere, which play a pivotal role in both air pollution and climate change. By identifying and characterizing the fundamental chemical processes governing aerosol behavior, his research supports efforts to predict current atmospheric conditions and the trajectory of air quality and climate moving forward. Kenseth received the recognizing outstanding science and accomplishments by researchers that are within three years of receiving their doctorate.

, a 91̽��assistant professor of Earth and space sciences, uses simulations to study the interactions between planetary atmospheres, interiors and biospheres to better understand the long-term evolution of Earth, Venus and rocky exoplanets. By building a holistic understanding of planetary evolution, this work will help enable scientists to search for life on other planets. Krissansen-Totton received the recognizing significant contributions to planetary science by early career researchers

, a 91̽��professor of Earth and space sciences, studies the ratio of elements and their isotopes in rocks and minerals to understand how planets form and evolve. His research introduced a new method for analysis involving isotopic “fingerprints” that allows scientists to learn about Earth’s crust, the composition of the mantle, the origins of magma and even the early solar system. Teng was inducted as a , a program that recognizes AGU members who have made exceptional contributions to Earth and space science through a breakthrough, discovery or innovation in their field.

Earth is reflecting less sunlight, and absorbing more heat, than it did several decades ago. Global warming is advancing faster than climate models predicted, with observed temperatures exceeding projections in 2023 and 2024. These trends have scientists scrambling to understand why the atmosphere is letting more light in.

A new study, , shows that reducing air pollution has inadvertently diminished the brightness of marine clouds, which are key regulators of global temperature.

Between 2003 and 2022, clouds over the Northeastern Pacific and Atlantic oceans, both sites of rapid surface warming, became nearly 3% less reflective per decade. Researchers attribute approximately 70% of this change to aerosols — and influence both cloud cover and cloud composition.

When research emerged showing that some aerosols are harmful, efforts to limit particulate pollution — specifically targeting the products of fossil fuel combustion — followed. Aerosol levels will likely continue to fall as clean energy replaces oil and gas. To improve the accuracy of global temperature forecasts, scientists need to capture the true relationship between aerosols, clouds, and heat from the sun in climate models.

“This paper is a substantial contribution to the evidence that reductions in particulate air pollutants are contributing to accelerated warming.” said , a principal research scientist at the 91̽��Cooperative Institute for Climate, Ocean and Ecosystem Studies.

Researchers knew that low clouds over the ocean would dissipate as temperatures rose, exposing more surface area to warming sunlight and amplifying its effect. They also knew that particles in the atmosphere insulate Earth both by deflecting light and making the entire cloud more reflective.

The cooling effect from particulate pollution masked warming from greenhouse gases for decades. Accelerated warming was a potential consequence of improving air quality.

“It is clearly a good thing that we have been reducing particle pollution in the atmosphere,” Doherty said. “We don’t want to go back in time and take away the Clean Air Act.”

, the Clean Air Act marked the first of many worldwide efforts to control pollution.

“Our goal is to understand what is driving current climate changes to estimate how much warming we will see in the future,” Doherty added.

The Northeastern Pacific and Atlantic Oceans are warming faster than almost anywhere else on Earth, threatening and the . The researchers analyzed 20 years of satellite data documenting cloud dynamics above these bodies of water to identify the drivers behind the observed reduction in reflectivity.

They found that aerosols influence clouds in two ways. Small particles give water droplets something to cling to, and with a fixed amount of water, more aerosols means more small, shiny droplets in the clouds. By the same logic, reducing aerosols increases cloud droplet size. Large droplets are heavier, and quicker to fall to Earth as precipitation, which decreases the longevity of clouds, or cloud cover.

“When you cut pollution, you’re losing reflectivity and warming the system by allowing more solar radiation, or sunlight, to reach Earth,” said lead author , a 91̽��senior research scientist of atmospheric and climate science.

Updating aerosol formation and cloud droplet size in climate models improved simulations of cloud reflectivity — a critical variable for projecting future temperatures.

“We may be underestimating warming trends because this connection is stronger than we knew,” von Salzen said. “I think this increases the pressure on everyone to rethink climate mitigation and adaptation because warming is progressing faster than expected.”

While these changes to global cloud reflectivity have prompted rapid warming on Earth, scientists are researching the feasibility of interventions that could make the clouds shinier without polluting the air. One such intervention is known as marine cloud brightening, in which ships spray seawater into the air to make low-lying oceanic clouds more reflective and help minimize warming from the sun.

“You could think of it as replacing unhealthy pollutant particles with another type of particle that is not a pollutant — but that still provides a beneficial cooling effect,” said , a 91̽��professor of atmospheric and climate science.

However, before they are implemented, more research is needed to confirm that these methods are safe and without unintended consequences. In the meantime, this study will help scientists better forecast the impacts of climate change at a global scale.

Additional co-authors include; at the University of Toronto; at Imperial College London; , , and at Environment and Climate Change Canada.

This study was funded by the 91̽�� Marine Cloud Brightening Research Program, Environment and Climate Change Canada, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, an Imperial College Junior Research Fellowship and a Royal Society University Research Fellowship.

For more information, contact von Salzen at kvsalzen@uw.edu, Doherty at sdoherty@uw.edu or Wood at robwood2@uw.edu.��

Most of the Earth’s fresh water is locked in the ice that covers Antarctica. As the ocean and atmosphere grow warmer, that ice is with sea levels and global currents changing in response. To understand the potential implications, researchers need to know just how fast the ice is disappearing, and what is driving it back.

The West Antarctic ice sheet, an unstable expanse bordering the Amundsen Sea, is one of the greatest sources of uncertainty in climate projections. Records indicate that it has been steadily shrinking since the 1940s, but key details are missing. Using environmental data gathered from ice samples, tree rings and corals, 91̽�� researchers tailored a climate model to Antarctica and ran simulations to understand how changing weather patterns dictate ice melt.

The results, , were surprising. For years, researchers have hypothesized that westerly winds were ferrying warm water toward the ice sheet, accelerating ice melt. The new study flips the existing narrative on its head, or rather on its side, pointing toward winds from the north instead.

“We know the Earth is warming up on average, but that alone doesn’t explain ice loss in Antarctica,” said , a 91̽��professor of Earth and space sciences. “To understand what’s going to happen in the future, we need to understand the details of what’s happening now, and critically, whether we are connected to it.”

The Antarctic ice sheet covers an area larger than the U.S. and Mexico combined. If the Western-Hemisphere portion were to melt, global sea levels would rise by . The ice sheet is locked in place by ice shelves, fingers of ice that stretch into the sea. Free floating sea ice blankets the surface of the surrounding waters.

To study weather in Antarctica, where there are fewer weather stations than most of the world, scientists use computer simulations that draw from available data sources. Still, these models often lack data that is specific to the region, limiting the accuracy of their outputs.

In the past century, westerly winds blowing over high latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere have grown stronger in response to human-induced climate change. Indirect evidence also suggested that this trend was driving West Antarctic ice loss. But when the researchers dug into that theory, something didn’t add up.

“We thought that we were going to support what the climate models showed, which was that the westerly winds were getting stronger near the coast of Antarctica,” said , lead author and a 91̽��postdoctoral researcher of oceanography. “But there was no evidence of westerly winds strengthening in this part of Antarctica.”

O’Connor’s doctoral research explored how proxy data — historical records from ice cores, trees and coral — can reveal past weather patterns, including wind. Her work showed that the force needed to explain accelerating melt rates was still missing from the equation.

In the new study, researchers conducted a suite of high-resolution ice-ocean simulations to identify what climate patterns were driving ice shelf melting in this critical region of Antarctica. They fed the model a wind pattern for five years at a time, measured how much mass the ice lost, and repeated the process 29 times. Each iteration represented a different wind pattern. Data from the 30 simulations showed that northerly winds consistently exacerbated ice loss. Westerlies did not have the same effect.

The northerly winds, which blow with force in Antarctica, were rearranging the sea ice surrounding Antarctica, capping off small but important gaps called polynyas.

“Sea ice is a really good insulator, it keeps the ocean relatively warm compared to the air,” said a 91̽��professor of oceanography and of atmospheric and climate science. “When northerly winds close the polynyas, it reduces ocean heat loss, which means warmer waters and more melting of ice shelves below the surface.”

Polynyas are like pores on the icy surface of the ocean. When they are blocked, excess heat can’t escape. As the ice shelf melts, fresh water mingles with salty ocean water. A density gradient forms between the fresher, lighter water and the open ocean. This gradient powers a current that pulls in more warm ocean water from miles away, advancing ice shelf melt.

Researchers believe greenhouse gas emissions could be fueling the northerly winds. Early studies suggest that human-induced climate change is decreasing air pressure over the Amundsen Sea. This area hosts an influential low-pressure center that drives many of the Antarctic weather patterns. As it gets even lower, wind speed from the north increases.

“This mechanism provides a connection between West Antarctic ice loss and human-induced climate change, albeit a different mechanism than we previously suspected,” O’Connor said. Which is important, the researchers added, because if emissions are contributing to ice loss, perhaps cutting them could curtail it.

“I think what Gemma has done is going to lead to a complete revolution in the understanding of what drives Antarctic ice loss,” Armour said. “We had all sorts of theories about the winds that blow from west to east, but the northerly winds weren’t even on our radar. We were off by 90 degrees.”

Other authors include , a 91̽��professor of oceanography; , a 91̽��research scientist of Earth and space sciences; , an assistant professor of engineering at Dartmouth College; Shuntaro Hyogo, a graduate researcher of environmental science at Hokkaido University; and Taketo Shimada, a graduate researcher of environmental science at Hokkaido University

This research was funded by the Washington Research Foundation, the 91̽�� eScience Institute, the U.S. National Science Foundation, a Calvin professorship in oceanography, the Japanese Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science, and Technology, Inoue Science Foundation, NASA Sea Level Change Team, the John Simon Guggenheim Memorial Foundation and JST SPRING.

For more information, contact Gemma O’Connor at goconnor@uw.edu.

So-called “” now seem almost commonplace as floods, storms and fires continue to set new standards for largest, strongest and most destructive. But to categorize weather as a true 100-year event, there must be just a 1% chance of it occurring in any given year. The trouble is that researchers don’t always know whether the weather aligns with the current climate or defies the odds.

Traditional weather forecasting models run on energy-hogging supercomputers that are typically housed at large research institutions. In the past five years, artificial intelligence has emerged as a powerful tool for cheaper, faster forecasting, but most AI-powered models can only accurately forecast 10 days into the future.  Still, longer-range forecasts are critical for climate science — and helping people prepare for seasons to come.

In a in AGU Advances, 91̽�� researchers used AI to simulate the Earth’s current climate and interannual variability for up to 1,000 years. The model runs on a single processor and takes just 12 hours to generate a forecast. On a state-of-the-art supercomputer, the same simulation would take approximately 90 days.

“We are developing a tool that examines the variability in our current climate to help answer this lingering question: Is a given event the kind of thing that happens naturally, or not?” said , a 91̽��professor of atmospheric and climate science.

Durran was one of the first to introduce AI into weather forecasting more than five years ago when he and former 91̽��graduate student partnered with Microsoft Research. Durran also holds a joint position as a researcher with California-based Nvidia.

“To train an AI model, you have to give it tons of data,” Durran said. “But if you break up the available historical data by season, you don’t get very many chunks.”

The most accurate global datasets for the daily weather go back to roughly 1979. Although there are plenty of days between then and now that can be used to train a daily weather forecast model, the same period contains fewer seasons.��This lack of historical data was perceived as a barrier to using AI for seasonal forecasting.

Counterintuitively, the Durran group’s latest contribution to forecasting, Deep Learning Earth SYstem Model, or DLESyM , was trained for one-day forecasts, but still learned how to capture seasonal variability.

The model combines two neural networks: one representing the atmosphere and the other, the ocean. While traditional Earth-system models often join atmospheric and oceanic forecasts, researchers had yet to incorporate this approach into models powered by AI alone.

“We were the first to apply this framework to AI and we found out that it worked really well,” said lead author , a 91̽��graduate student in atmospheric and climate science. “We’re presenting this as a model that defies a lot of the present assumptions surrounding AI in climate science.”

Because the temperature of the sea surface changes slower than the air temperature, the oceanic model updates its predictions every four days, while the atmospheric model updates every 12 hours. Cresswell-Clay is currently working on adding a land-surface model to DLESyM.

“Our design opens the door for adding other components of the Earth system in the future,” he said, especially components that have been difficult to model in the past, such as the relationship between soil, plants and the atmosphere. Instead of researchers coming up with an equation to represent this complex relationship, AI learns directly from the data.

The researchers showcased the model’s performance by comparing its forecasts of past events to those generated by the four leading models from the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, or CMIP6, all of which run on supercomputers. Climate predictions of future climate from these models were key resources used in the last report from the .

DLESyM simulated tropical cyclones and the seasonal cycle of the Indian summer monsoon better than the CMIP6 models. In mid-latitudes, DLESyM captured the month-to-month and interannual variability of weather patterns at least as well as the CMIP6 models.

For example, the model captured atmospheric “blocking” events just as well as the leading physics-based models. Blocking refers to the formation of atmospheric ridges that keep regions hot and dry, and others cold or wet, by deflecting incoming weather systems. “A lot of the existing climate models actually don’t do a very good job capturing this pattern,” Cresswell-Clay said. “The quality of our results validates our model and improves our trust in its future projections.”

Neither the CMIP6 models nor DLESyM are 100% accurate, but the fact that the AI-based approach was competitive while using so much less power is significant.

“Not only does the model have a much lower carbon footprint, but anyone can download it from our website and run complex experiments, even if they don’t have supercomputer access,” Durran said. “This puts the technology within reach for many other researchers.”

Other authors include , a visiting 91̽��doctoral student in atmospheric and climate science; a 91̽��doctoral student in atmospheric and climate science; , a 91̽��doctoral student in atmospheric and climate science; Raúl A. Moreno, a doctoral student in atmospheric and climate science and , a postdoctoral researcher in neuro-cognitive modeling at the University of Tübingen in Germany.

This work was funded by the U.S. Office of Naval Research, the U.S. Department of Defense, the University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, the National Science Foundation of China, Deutscher Akademischer Austauschdienst, International Max Planck Research School for Intelligent Systems, Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft, U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Science, Office of Advanced Scientific Computing Research and the NVIDIA Applied Research Accelerator Program.

For more information, contact Nathaniel Cresswell-Clay at nacc@atmos.washington.edu or Dale Durran at drdee@uw.edu

Even if you live far from the boreal forests in Canada and Siberia, you’ve likely noticed an increase in smoke from their forest fires. During major blazes in 2023, the and drifted as far south as New Orleans. These blazes have surged in the last decade — warmer summers, less snow cover in the spring, and the loss of sea ice. Experts expect that trend to continue.

Yet recent climate change projection models have not accounted for the increase. For instance, the widely used sixth , or CMIP6, released in the late 2010s, kept these fires constant at a relatively low severity.

A new 91̽��-led study projects that in the next 35 years these increasing boreal fires will actually slow warming by 12% globally and 38% in the Arctic. The study is the first to identify the divergence between the observed boreal fire increase and the constant fires used in climate models. Because the aerosols in smoke brighten clouds and reflect sunlight, summer temperatures during fire season drop in northern regions, leading to reduced sea ice loss and cooler winter temperatures. This effect is despite the warming effects of the fires themselves from factors such as soot that falls on the ice.

Researchers published June 3 in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

“This study helps us begin to better project the impacts of climate change. The dramatic increase in these fires in the last years is itself a symptom of that,” said lead author , a 91̽��research associate professor of atmospheric and climate science. “It’s important to remember that these increasing fires still have a lot of negative impacts for human health and for forest biodiversity. And if the fires continue to increase, eventually they could burn through the forests and the trend could reverse. So I wouldn’t say this is good news. But it helps us better understand nature and these trends.”

Every six or seven years, climate modeling centers around the world collaborate to update their projections, using numbers going back to the 19th century and projected numbers through 2100. These data comprise things like wildfires and human-caused carbon emissions. For CMIP6, which was modeled before boreal fires became a clear anomaly, the wildfires were kept constant from 2015 to 2100.

“If you look at the time series of the fires, it starts increasing around 2015, but it really spikes in 2019 and 2021, just as this modeling was being completed,” Blanchard-Wrigglesworth said. “Those are the big years of Siberian fires. And then 2023 was the even bigger Canadian fire season.”

Because climate scientists don’t expect the causes of this increase in fires to abate anytime soon, the team reran one of the CMIP6 models with a new boreal fire projection based on the recent observed trends, resulting in a four-fold increase from 2015 to 2060. This adjusted the modeling for the smoke aerosols. It also accounted for factors like the fires’ soot, which settles on Arctic ice and darkens it, causing it to absorb more heat from sunlight (the same way sun heats asphalt). But the increased reflection of sunlight from aerosols overwhelmed this warming.

While the fires occur only in the summers, researchers actually found a greater cooling effect in the winters, because the fires block some of the summer sun, resulting in thicker Arctic ice that lasts into the following winter.

The study found impacts far from boreal forests. The smoke cools temperatures across all seasons from the Arctic down to the latitude of Northern California at 40 degrees north. The fires also push tropical rains further south because .

The authors say future work should adjust other climate models to account for increasing boreal fires and investigate possible effects of changes in the land after fires.

“I hope our work raises awareness of this issue for further study and of the potential effects of any future human management of these remote fires,” Blanchard-Wrigglesworth said. “If the increase in boreal fires continues unabated over the next decade or two, society may decide we want to manage boreal fires more. But before we put a lot of resources toward that, we need to try to understand the possible consequences.”

, of Université Catholique de Louvain, and , a 91̽��associate professor of atmospheric and climate science, are co-authors on this paper. This research was funded by the National Science Foundation and the European Union.

For more information, contact Blanchard-Wrigglesworth at edwardbw@uw.edu.

Amid all the changes in Earth’s climate, sea ice in the stormy Southern Ocean surrounding Antarctica was, for a long time, an odd exception. The maximum winter sea ice cover remained steady or even increased slightly from the late 1970s through 2015, despite rising global temperatures.

That began to change in 2016. Several years of decline led to , more than five standard deviations below the average from the satellite record. The area of sea ice was 2.2 million square kilometers below the average from the satellite record, a loss almost 12 times the size of Washington state. The most recent winter’s peak, recorded in September 2024, was to the previous year’s record low.

91̽�� researchers show that the all-time record low can be explained by warm Southern Ocean conditions and patterns in the winds that circled Antarctica months earlier, allowing forecasts for sea ice coverage around the South Pole to be generated six or more months in advance. This could support regional and global weather and climate models.

The open-access was published Nov. 20 in Nature Communications Earth & Environment.

“Since 2015, total Antarctic sea ice area has dramatically declined,” said lead author , a 91̽��doctoral student in atmospheric and climate science. “State-of-the-art forecasting methods for sea ice generally struggle to produce reliable forecasts at such long leads. We show that winter Antarctic sea ice has significant predictability at six- to nine-month lead times.”

The authors used a global climate model to simulate how ocean and air temperatures, including longer-term cycles like El Niño and La Niña, affect sea ice in the Southern Ocean.

Results showed that the 2023 El Niño was less important than previously thought. Instead, an arching pattern of regional winds, and their effects on ocean temperatures up to six months in advance, could explain 70% of the 2023 record-low winter sea ice. These winds cause ocean mixing in the Southern Ocean that can pull deeper warm water up to the surface, thus suppressing sea ice growth. Winds can also push sea ice poleward toward Antarctica to prevent the sea ice edge from expanding north, transport heat from lower latitudes toward the poles, and generate ocean waves that break up sea ice.

Using the same approach for the 2024 observations correctly predicted that this would be another low year for Southern Ocean sea ice cover.

“It’s interesting that, despite how unusual the winter sea ice conditions were in 2023 and again in 2024, our results show they were remarkably predictable over 6 months in advance,” said co-author , a 91̽��research associate professor of atmospheric and climate science.

Antarctic sea ice is important because it affects marine and coastal ecosystems and interactions between ocean and atmosphere in the Southern Ocean. It also affects global climate by reflecting sunlight in the Southern Hemisphere and influencing ice sheets and global currents.

“Antarctic sea ice is a major control on the rate of global warming and the stability of ice on the Antarctic continent,” Espinosa said. “In fact, the sea ice acts to buttress ice shelves, increasing their stability and slowing the rate of global sea level rise. This ice is also important for marine and coastal ecosystems.”

As summer arrives in the Southern Hemisphere, the remains sparse around Antarctica, close to a record low for this time of the year.

“Our success at predicting these major sea ice loss events so far in advance demonstrates our understanding of the mechanism that caused them,” said co-author , a 91̽��professor of atmospheric and climate science. “Our model and methods are geared up to predict future sea ice loss events.”

The research was funded by the National Science Foundation and the U.S. Department of Energy.

For more information, contact Espinosa at zespinosa97@gmail.com, Bitz at bitz@uw.edu and Blanchard-Wrigglesworth at edwardbw@uw.edu.

UPDATE (Aug. 2, 2024): A previous version of this story misstated Paul Kinahan’s name.

Fifteen faculty members at the 91̽�� have been elected to the Washington State Academy of Sciences. They are among 36 scientists and educators from across the state . Selection recognizes the new members’ “outstanding record of scientific and technical achievement, and their willingness to work on behalf of the academy to bring the best available science to bear on issues within the state of Washington.”

Twelve 91̽��faculty members were selected by current WSAS members. They are:

• , associate professor of epidemiology, of health systems and population health, and of child, family and population health nursing, who “possesses the rare combination of scientific rigor and courageous commitment to local community health. Identifying original ways to examine questions, and seeking out appropriate scientific methods to study those questions, allow her to translate research to collaborative community interventions with a direct impact on the health of communities.”
• , the Shauna C. Larson endowed chair in learning sciences, for “his work in the cultural basis of scientific research and learning, bringing rigor and light to multiculturalism in science and STEM education through STEM Teaching Tools and other programs.”
• , professor of psychiatry and behavioral sciences, “for her sustained commitment to community-engaged, science-driven practice and policy change related to the prevention of suicide and the promotion of mental health, with a focus on providing effective, sustainable and culturally appropriate care to people with serious mental illness.”
• , the David and Nancy Auth endowed professor in bioengineering, who has “charted new paths for 30-plus years. Her quest to deeply understand protein folding/unfolding and the link to amyloid diseases has propelled her to pioneer unique computational and experimental methods leading to the discovery and characterization of a new protein structure linked to toxicity early in amyloidogenesis.”
• , professor of environmental and occupational health sciences, of global health, and of emergency medicine, who is “a global and national leader at the intersection of climate change and health whose work has advanced our understanding of climate change health effects and has informed the design of preparedness and disaster response planning in Washington state, nationally and globally.”
• , professor of bioengineering and of radiology, who is “recognized for his contributions to the science and engineering of medical imaging systems and for leadership in national programs and professional and scientific societies advancing the capabilities of medical imaging.”
• , the Donald W. and Ruth Mary Close professor of electrical and computer engineering and faculty member in the 91̽��Clean Energy Institute, who is “recognized for his distinguished research contributions to the design and operation of economical, reliable and environmentally sustainable power systems, and the development of influential educational materials used to train the next generation of power engineers.”
• , senior vice president and director of the Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division at the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, the Joel D. Meyers endowed chair of clinical research and of vaccine and infectious disease at Fred Hutch, and 91̽��professor of medicine, who is “is recognized for her seminal contributions to developing validated laboratory methods for interrogating cellular and humoral immune responses to HIV, TB and COVID-19 vaccines, which has led to the analysis of more than 100 vaccine and monoclonal antibody trials for nearly three decades, including evidence of T-cell immune responses as a correlate of vaccine protection.”
• , professor of political science and the Walker family professor for the arts and sciences, who is a specialist “in environmental politics, international political economy, and the politics of nonprofit organizations. He is widely recognized as a leader in the field of environmental politics, best known for his path-breaking research on the role firms and nongovernmental organizations can play in promoting more stringent regulatory standards.”
• , the Ballmer endowed dean of social work, for investigations of “how inequality, in its many forms, affects health, illness and quality of life. He has developed unique conceptual frameworks to investigate how race, ethnicity and immigration are associated with health and social outcomes.”
• , professor of chemistry, who is elected “for distinguished scientific and community contributions to advancing the field of electron paramagnetic resonance spectroscopy, which have transformed how researchers worldwide analyze data.”
• , professor of bioengineering and of ophthalmology, whose “pioneering work in biomedical optics, including the invention of optical microangiography and development of novel imaging technologies, has transformed clinical practice, significantly improving patient outcomes. Through his numerous publications, patents and clinical translations, his research has helped shape the field of biomedical optics.”

Three new 91̽��members of the academy were selected by virtue of their previous election to one of the National Academies. They are:

• , professor of atmospheric and climate science, who had been elected to the National Academy of Sciences “for contributions to research and expertise in atmospheric radiation and cloud processes, remote sensing, cloud/aerosol/radiation/climate interactions, stratospheric circulation and stratosphere-troposphere exchanges and coupling, and climate change.”
• , the Bartley Dobb professor for the study and prevention of violence in the Department of Epidemiology and a 91̽��professor of pediatrics, who had been elected to the National Academy of Medicine “for being a national public health leader whose innovative and multidisciplinary research to integrate data across the health care system and criminal legal system has deepened our understanding of the risk and consequences of firearm-related harm and informed policies and programs to reduce its burden, especially among underserved communities and populations.”
• , division chief of general pediatrics at Seattle Children’s Hospital and a 91̽��professor of pediatrics, who had been elected to the National Academy of Medicine “for her leadership in advancing child health equity through scholarship in community-partnered design of innovative care models in pediatric primary care. Her work has transformed our understanding of how to deliver child preventive health care during the critical early childhood period to achieve equitable health outcomes and reduce disparities.”

In addition, Dr. , president and director of the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center and of the Cancer Consortium — a partnership between the UW, Seattle Children’s Hospital and Fred Hutch — was elected to the academy for being “part of a research effort that found mutations in the cell-surface protein epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR), which plays an important role in helping lung cancer cells survive. Today, drugs that target EGFR can dramatically change outcomes for lung cancer patients by slowing the progression of the cancer.”

the Boeing-Egtvedt endowed professor and chair in aeronautics and astronautics, will join the board effective Sept. 30. Morgansen was elected to WSAS in 2021 “for significant advances in nonlinear methods for integrated sensing and control in engineered, bioinspired and biological flight systems,” and “for leadership in cross-disciplinary aerospace workforce development.” She is currently director of the Washington NASA Space Grant Consortium, co-director of the 91̽��Space Policy and Research Center and chair of the AIAA Aerospace Department Chairs Association. She is also a member of the WSAS education committee.

“I am excited to serve on the WSAS board and work with WSAS members to leverage and grow WSAS’s impact by identifying new opportunities for WSAS to collaborate and partner with the state in addressing the state’s needs,” said Morgansen.

The new members to the Washington State Academy of Sciences will be formally inducted in September.