Sales of existing homes declined 8.6 percent in the September-December quarter of 2013, but still were 9.2 percent higher than the same time in 2012. The seasonally adjusted sales rate was 91,340 homes, meaning that if the quarter’s pace continued unchanged for a year, that number of homes would be sold.

“Washington’s housing market is finding its balance,” said Glenn Crellin, associate director of the Runstad center. “Sales throughout 2013 totaled 93,730 units, well above any of the last five years, but still well below the pre-recession frenzy.”

An inadequate supply of listings available for sale continues to be a problem and contributes to increases in home prices, Crellin said.

The statewide median home sales price during the fourth quarter was 6 percent above a year ago at $256,300. Price increases were especially strong in the metropolitan Seattle area. Median prices were lower than a year earlier in 16 counties, but most declines were less than two percent. Median prices ranged from $70,000 in Lincoln County to $421,000 in King County.

The all-buyer affordability index was 149.4 statewide, meaning a middle-income family could afford a home selling for 49.4 percent above the median, provided they have the 20 percent down and a 30-year mortgage at prevailing rates. This represents a modest improvement from the third quarter, but shows that homes in Washington were significantly less affordable than a year earlier.

Statewide, the first-time buyer index, an affordability index for new homeowners, improved after a third-quarter dip and ended the year at 83.5. This means that a household earning 70 percent of the median household income had only 83.5 percent of the income required to purchase a typical starter home statewide.

“The stronger housing market with increased prices coupled with higher interest rates than last year has clearly made it harder for first-time buyers to find a home with the features they desire, especially in greater Seattle,” said George McGilliard, 2014 president of Washington Realtors.

Local data show stronger home sales than a year ago in all but four of Washington’s 39 counties, though 25 counties saw the seasonally adjusted sales rate decline compared to the third quarter. Crellin said this is evidence the market is stabilizing.

Housing affordability varied widely across the state. The most affordable community was Lincoln County, where the all-buyer affordability index stood at 406.4 (where 100 means a middle-income family can just qualify for a median-price home) to a low of 82.8 in San Juan County. For first-time buyers in metropolitan areas, Benton County was again the most affordable and King County the least affordable.

“A shortage of listings remains the biggest problem in the strongest markets,” Crellin said “New home construction helps, as do news reports indicating many people are interested in selling now that their mortgages are no longer underwater. The biggest current negatives are increasing prices and mortgage rates making it harder for buyers to qualify.”

The Runstad Center produces home sales statistics in partnership with Washington Realtors. Each quarterly release coincides with information from the National Association of Realtors regarding median home prices by metropolitan area.

Sales, median home prices and affordability data for all Washington counties are available at the Runstad Center’s .

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For more information, contact Crellin at 509-432-8253 or crellin@uw.edu.

Similarly, median home prices throughout the state advanced, while the affordability of homes dropped measurably.

The number of existing home sales during the third quarter of 2013 increased 7.1 percent from the second quarter and 30 percent from a year ago, reaching a seasonally adjusted annual sale rate of 99,960 homes. That means that if the pace for the quarter continued unchanged for a year, that number of homes would be sold. This represents the highest sales rate since the second quarter of 2007.

Quarter-to-quarter home sales increased in number in 31 of Washington’s 39 counties at seasonally adjusted annual rates.

“Comparing market activity to a year ago saw stronger sales in 36 counties,” said Glenn Crellin, associate director of the center, “and the declines were all in smaller communities.” The greatest year-to-year gain in a metropolitan county was 43.6 percent in Skagit County, while the lowest was 5.3 percent in Asotin County.

“Available listings remain a problem,” said Mark Kitabayashi, president of Washington Realtors, which works with the center to produce home sales statistics. “There are more homes on the market today than a year ago, but the sales rate has increased more rapidly, meaning buyers need to decide quickly and make strong initial offers. Even then, there are often multiple offers.”

The imbalance between limited supply and strong demand resulted in a median price during the quarter of $264,300, an increase of 8.4 percent compared to a year ago. Six counties had lower median prices and three small counties had significant jumps, but even metropolitan markets often had double-digit percentage price surges. Among metropolitan counties the range of median price changes in the past year ranged from a decline of 2.8 percent in Chelan County to a jump of 17.5 percent in Clark County.

Crellin said, however, that since prices remain well below the market peak, worries of a bubble reforming are minimal.

In addition to reduced selection and higher prices, buyers are faced with higher mortgage interest rates, Crellin said. While family and household incomes are increasing a bit, they are not offsetting the other increases, resulting in a decline in the affordability of housing compared to three or 12 months ago.

The all-buyer affordability index was 144.4 statewide, meaning a middle-income family could afford a home selling for 44 percent above the median provided they have the assumed 20 percent down payment and good credit. Despite the decline in affordability, only San Juan County had a measure which would be interpreted as unaffordable median home prices for a median income family. Among metropolitan counties the affordability index ranged from a high of 183.8 in Benton County to a low of 106.8 in King County.

The challenges are greater for first-time buyers. Although the homes typically purchased are less expensive, first-time buyers usually have smaller down payments and lower incomes. The statewide first-time buyer index, an affordability index for new homeowners, stood at 80.6 during the quarter.

Crellin said, “This is the bottom threshold for what represents the likelihood that first-time buyers can find a home they can afford. Unfortunately, nine counties now have index levels below that cutoff, and several others are only marginally above.”  Rural areas dominate the list of communities where the first-time buyer index exceeds 100.

Usually this release includes information on building permit activity, but the data for September will not be released in a timely fashion by the Census Bureau because of the government shutdown in October.

Sales, median home prices and affordability data for each of Washington’s 39 counties are available on the Runstad Center’s .

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For more information, contact Crellin at 206-685-8020 or crellin@uw.edu.

Existing home sales during the second quarter of 2013 increased 5.4 percent from the first quarter, and 21 percent from a year ago, reaching a seasonally adjusted annual sale rate of 93,280 homes. That means that if the pace for the quarter continued unchanged for a year, that number of homes would be sold. This represents the highest sales rate in six years.

“The biggest current impediment to the housing market remains a shortage of homes available for sale,” said Glenn Crellin, associate director of the center.  “Construction activity is improving, but builders cannot improve availability overnight. Lenders need to release properties which have been foreclosed, but are still owned by the lender to allow the market to stabilize and prevent renewed bubble conditions.”

While quarter-to-quarter home sales increased in only half of Washington’s 39 counties at seasonally adjusted annual rates, strong markets in the largest urban areas pulled the statewide tally higher, Crellin said. Declines, he said, were all in smaller communities.

“Stronger sales activity is encouraging some owners to put their homes on the market,” said Mark Kitabayashi, president of Washington Realtors, which partners with the center to produce home sales statistics. “But in many markets listings are so scarce, buyers don’t have time to see many properties before making an offer — and well-priced, move-in-ready homes sell very quickly, often with multiple offers.”

The imbalance between limited supply and strong demand resulted in a median price of $251,100 during the quarter, an increase of 6.4 percent compared with a year ago. The Seattle metropolitan area saw especially steep increases in median prices – 14.7 percent in Snohomish County, 13.8 percent in King County and 12.5 percent in Pierce County. Meanwhile, the median price declined in the Olympia and Yakima metropolitan areas.

In addition to reduced selection and higher prices, buyers are faced with somewhat higher mortgage interest rates. While an improving job market is resulting in slightly higher incomes, it does not offset the other increases, causing a decline in the affordability of housing compared with three months or a year ago.

The all-buyer affordability index was 166.6 statewide, which means that a middle-income family could afford a home 66 percent above the median price provided they have a 20 percent down payment and good credit. All 39 counties recorded index values above 100, suggesting that middle-income families statewide could afford a median-price home.

The news was worse for renters seeking to purchase their first home. The statewide measure dipped back below 100, registering a score of 99.5, with 14 counties similarly below 100. Since it is traditionally a challenge to obtain that first home, Crellin said he thinks a first-time buyer index of 80 represents a reasonable opportunity for renters to qualify for a home. Unfortunately, five counties, including King County — which recorded the lowest index in the state (71.0) — fell below that line.

Sales, median home prices and affordability data for each of Washington’s 39 counties are available on the Runstad Center’s .

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For more information, contact Crellin at 206-685-8020 or crellin@uw.edu.

“Washington’s housing market is clearly recovering,” said Glenn Crellin, the center’s associate director for research. “However, the pace of sales activity is being held back somewhat by the limited inventory of homes available for sale.”

Crellin said this shortage of listings brings “classic supply and demand pressure on prices, consistent with the observed price increases.”

Existing home sales during the opening quarter of 2013 increased 5.6 percent from the fourth quarter of 2012 and 14.7 percent from a year ago, reaching a seasonally adjusted annual sale rate of 88,440 homes, meaning that if the sales rate for the quarter continued for a year, that number of homes would be sold.

Quarter-to-quarter home sales increased in 28 of Washington’s 39 counties at seasonally adjusted annual rates. Some counties with a slower sales pace were urban markets such as King County, which entered recovery mode earlier than some smaller communities.

Crellin said he has revised the statistics for seasonally adjusted sales retroactively to 2004 to make the numbers consistent with other data sources such as the 2010 American Community Survey and recent data from county assessors. Given that recalibration, he said, the first quarter of 2013 actually saw the highest seasonally adjusted sales rate since the third quarter of 2007.

The statewide median home price was $237,600, which is 14.1 percent higher than this time in 2012. Despite the steep single-year price gain, this median was seasonally lower than the final two quarters of 2012. County-level medians ranged from a high of $412,500 in San Juan County to a low of $65,000 in rural Lincoln County.

Despite the increased median prices, continued declines in mortgage interest rates allowed improvement in the Housing Affordability Index. This measures the ability of median-income families to buy median-price homes, assuming a 20 percent down payment and 30-year mortgage at prevailing rates.

Crellin said the index shows that middle-income families, at an annual income of $73,150, could qualify for a home priced well above the statewide median. Only San Juan County had an all-buyer index below 100, meaning that a typical middle-income family there could not quite afford a median-priced home in the county. King County had the second-lowest affordability at 134.6, meaning the typical family could afford a home priced about 35 percent above the local median.

Meanwhile, the statewide first-time buyer index reached a record high of 104.4 during the first quarter, meaning a household earning 70 percent of the median household income could just afford a typical starter home.

Regionally, housing affordability varied widely. Statewide, the most affordable community was Lincoln County where the index stood at 481.5 (where 100 means the median income family can barely qualify for the median price home) to a low of 92.1 in San Juan County. For first-time buyers in metropolitan areas, Benton County was again the most affordable and King County the least affordable.

“The biggest current impediment to the housing market remains a shortage of homes available for sale,” Crellin said. “Construction activity is improving, but builders cannot improve availability overnight. Lenders need to release properties which have been foreclosed, but are still owned by the lender to allow the market to stabilize and prevent renewed bubble conditions.”

Mark Kitabayshi, president of Washington Realtors, which produces home sales statistics in partnership with the Runstad Center, said, “If prices continue to rise the expectation of higher mortgage rates by late 2014 will result in greater challenges to first-time buyers who wait.”

Each of the Runstad Center’s quarterly releases coincides with information from the National Association of Realtors regarding median home prices by metropolitan area. Sales, median home prices and affordability data for each of Washington’s 39 counties are available at the center’s .

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For more information, contact Crellin at 206-685-8020 or crellin@uw.edu.