The American Geophysical Union honored five 91探花 faculty and researchers from the Earth and space sciences and atmospheric and climate science departments this week at the annual meeting in New Orleans.

Each year, the meeting draws thousands of scientists, educators and policymakers to discover emerging research, discuss hurdles and network. Prior to the meeting, AGU announces awards for individuals who have made significant contributions to Earth and space science and presents them in person during the week.

The theme is, 鈥淲here Science Connects Us,鈥� and the 91探花awardees were recognized for research that advances understanding of natural hazards, the history of Earth, weather and climate change.

Here are the UW鈥檚 five recipients and their respective awards:

, a 91探花assistant professor of Earth and space sciences, studies how magmas form beneath volcanoes. She specializes in work that involves using samples from past volcanic eruptions to examine the behavior of volcanic gases like water, carbon, and sulfur, which can help researchers monitor active volcanoes. Muth received the for early career scientists who have made outstanding contributions to fields of volcanology, geochemistry, and petrology.

, a 91探花professor of atmospheric and climate science, studies predictability, mountain meteorology and numerical weather prediction. Durran鈥檚 recent research focuses on using deep learning to change our current paradigm for numerical weather prediction, seasonal forecasting and climate modeling. He holds a joint position with NVIDIA. Durran received the award for prominent scientists who have made exceptional contributions to the understanding of weather and climate.

, a 91探花postdoctoral researcher of atmospheric and climate science, studies the formation and evolution of aerosol particles in the atmosphere, which play a pivotal role in both air pollution and climate change. By identifying and characterizing the fundamental chemical processes governing aerosol behavior, his research supports efforts to predict current atmospheric conditions and the trajectory of air quality and climate moving forward. Kenseth received the recognizing outstanding science and accomplishments by researchers that are within three years of receiving their doctorate.

, a 91探花assistant professor of Earth and space sciences, uses simulations to study the interactions between planetary atmospheres, interiors and biospheres to better understand the long-term evolution of Earth, Venus and rocky exoplanets. By building a holistic understanding of planetary evolution, this work will help enable scientists to search for life on other planets. Krissansen-Totton received the recognizing significant contributions to planetary science by early career researchers

, a 91探花professor of Earth and space sciences, studies the ratio of elements and their isotopes in rocks and minerals to understand how planets form and evolve. His research introduced a new method for analysis involving isotopic 鈥渇ingerprints鈥� that allows scientists to learn about Earth鈥檚 crust, the composition of the mantle, the origins of magma and even the early solar system. Teng was inducted as a , a program that recognizes AGU members who have made exceptional contributions to Earth and space science through a breakthrough, discovery or innovation in their field.

The 91探花 is a lead partner on a new multi-institution earthquake research center based at the University of Oregon that the National Science Foundation announced Sept. 8 will receive $15 million over five years to study the Cascadia subduction zone and bolster earthquake preparedness in the Pacific Northwest and beyond.

The Cascadia Region Earthquake Science Center, or CRESCENT, will be the first center of its kind in the nation focused on earthquakes at subduction zones, where one tectonic plate slides beneath another.

The center will unite scientists studying the possible impacts of a major earthquake along the Cascadia subduction zone, an offshore tectonic plate boundary that stretches more than 600 miles (1,000 kilometers) from southern British Columbia to Northern California. The center will advance earthquake research, foster community partnerships, and diversify and train the next generation geosciences work force.

鈥淭he main goal of the center is to bring together the large group of geoscientists working in Cascadia to march together to the beat of a singular drum,鈥� said center director at the University of Oregon. 鈥淭he center organizes us, focuses collaboration and identifies key priorities, rather than these institutions competing.鈥�

CRESCENT includes researchers from 16 institutions around the United States in the Pacific Northwest and beyond. The leadership team includes investigators from the UW, Oregon State University and Central Washington University.

The Cascadia subduction zone has a long history of spurring large earthquakes, but scientists have only started to realize its power within the last few decades. Research shows that the fault is capable of producing an earthquake of magnitude-9.0 or greater 鈥� and communities along the U.S. West Coast are ill-prepared for a quake this powerful.

Such an event would set off a cascade of deadly natural hazards in the Cascadia region, from tsunamis to landslides. It could cause buildings and bridges to collapse, disrupt power and gas lines, and leave water supplies inaccessible for months.

CRESCENT鈥檚 work can help mitigate that damage. Scientists will use the latest technology 鈥� including high-performance computing and artificial intelligence 鈥� to understand the complex dynamics of a major subduction zone earthquake. They will gather data and develop tools to better forecast specific local and regional impacts from a quake. That knowledge will help communities to better prepare, by improving infrastructure and nailing down more informed emergency plans.

Valerie Sahakian and Amanda Thomas are co-lead investigators at the University of Oregon.

鈥淢odeling the shaking from California to Canada is a gigantic endeavor,鈥� Sahakian said. 鈥淭he center enables us to make bigger strides in models, products, and lines of research, to work with engineers to create better building codes and actionable societal outcomes.鈥�

Subduction zones in the U.S. are understudied compared to other kinds of faults, and create distinctive earthquake dynamics that still aren鈥檛 fully understood, Melgar said. So the lessons learned from CRESCENT鈥檚 work could also be applied to subduction zones in Alaska, the Caribbean and around the world.

Community collaboration will be a major part of the center鈥檚 work. The CRESCENT team will work with communities impacted by hazards, regularly soliciting their input to guide research priorities. And they鈥檒l build connections with public agencies, tribal groups, and private industry, so that scientific advances from the center will get translated into community action and policy.

The center will also work to increase diversity in geosciences and train the next generation of geoscientists in the latest technologies. For example, it will engage with minority-serving and tribal high schools to raise interest in and create pathways to geoscience careers, and provide fieldwork stipends and year-round paid research assistantships to support undergraduate students.

, a professor of Earth and space sciences at the 91探花and director of the Pacific Northwest Seismic Network, leads the effort at the UW.

鈥淭his NSF Center will be a game-changer for earthquake research in the Pacific Northwest; it will have direct, real-world public safety consequences for policy and planning,鈥� said Tobin, who holds the Paros Endowed Chair in Seismology and Geohazards and serves as Washington’s state seismologist.

鈥淚nitial CRESCENT efforts include identifying key faults 鈥� both on land and under the sea 鈥� that present earthquake and tsunami hazard, measuring and modeling movements of the crust that could show us where earthquake strain is building, and much more.鈥�

, a research assistant professor of Earth and space sciences at the UW, will lead the working group studying seismic activity and , the more gradual movements along a fault.

鈥淭he end goal is to have a community-driven model that describes all of the tectonic structures of Cascadia,鈥� Crowell said. 鈥淭he objective of CRESCENT is about creating systematic and foundational community science, adapting the best techniques and methods available for use by the seismic community in our region. It will change the process of how we do this science.鈥�

Also initially involved from the 91探花are , an assistant professor of Earth and space sciences; , a 91探花professor of Earth and space sciences; and , a professor of oceanography who holds the Jerome M. Paros Endowed Chair in Sensor Networks.

The center will include staff at the U.S. Geological Survey, including affiliate 91探花faculty members , and , and members of the UW-based Pacific Northwest Seismic Network, which will continue to perform real-time monitoring and communication of seismic risks in the region.

For more information, contact Tobin at htobin@uw.edu or 206-543-6790, Crowell at crowellb@uw.edu and Melgar at dmelgarm@uoregon.edu or 541-346-3488.

Adapted from a University of Oregon press release.

Other CRESCENT participating institutions are:

Cal Poly Humboldt

Cedar Lake Research Group

EarthScope Consortium

Portland State University

Purdue University

Smith College

Stanford University

University of California – San Diego鈥檚 Scripps Institution of Oceanography

University of North Carolina-Wilmington

Virginia Tech

Washington State University

Western Washington University

Harold Tobin is director of the Pacific Northwest Seismic Network and a 91探花professor of Earth and space sciences. Tobin studies tectonic plate boundaries with a focus on how faults work and the conditions inside them that lead to earthquakes. He also serves as Washington state鈥檚 seismologist.

“This region along the East Anatolian Fault has a well-known history of seismic activity, and it had been identified by Turkish as a place of high seismic hazard,” Tobin said. “However, its known history does not include earthquakes of magnitude 7 or above since seismometers existed to measure them, though historic records indicate earthquakes of up to magnitude 7.4 have occurred. The scale and size of this magnitude 7.8 quake and the one that followed are both larger than what was most likely anticipated. The fact that there was a second large and damaging quake, the magnitude 7.5 that occurred about nine hours later, is not unprecedented globally, but is very uncommon, especially at this size.

“It is not typical for a rupture on one fault to trigger a slip on another fault, but it鈥檚 also not that uncommon. For example, the , also clearly had slip along two different faults.

“The surprising size of the two earthquakes and the length of the fault zone makes them very remarkable events. We have seen very, very few on-land, strike-slip fault earthquakes as large as this in the past century, anywhere. For comparison, the San Andreas Fault in California has not had a comparable quake since the . The only other U.S. event of similar scale in the era of instrumental records was the in Alaska. That was also a strike-slip fault, involving the lateral motion of two crustal blocks, as opposed to the converging motion of a subduction zone fault. Fortunately that earthquake affected a sparsely populated region.”

In southern Turkey and Syria, “the risk remains elevated, unfortunately, because aftershocks are expected for some time 鈥� weeks to months to even years. Besides the 7.8 and the 7.5, there have been three aftershocks of magnitude 6.0 or larger already, and more can be expected. People in the region need to remain vigilant that more aftershocks may occur. It is also possible, though less probable, that additional, very large earthquakes could occur, even ones as large as, or larger than, the 7.5 and 7.8. Adjacent segments of the faults could still have built-up strain to be released.”

, 91探花professor of civil and environmental engineering, studies older buildings with substandard details and connections to develop advanced computer methods that can identify weak points. She then creates rehabilitation methods to improve the structural performance of these buildings.

“It is devastating to watch the aftermath of this earthquake followed by aftershocks,” Lehman said. “Clearly we have to think about the magnitude of aftershocks and simple mechanisms to reinforce brittle structures.”

“Although every building is unique in its geometry, function and seismic demands, it is well understood that reinforced concrete buildings without seismic detailing are particularly vulnerable in earthquakes. In modern reinforced concrete design, we improve the seismic performance by using steel with very high strain capacities at fracture and closely spaced hoop-shaped reinforcement to encase the main reinforcing bars. Even if the two buildings have the same strength, only the building with the high-strain capacity steel and the encased rebar will be able to sustain the earthquake demands without collapsing. Otherwise the response is ‘brittle.'”

“Many countries are studying important technologies to prevent building collapse in moderate to large earthquakes. The knowledge and development of the technologies is the first step, but implementation and construction methods are also very important. We have seen over decades that improvement in codes leads to improvement in seismic response.”

“The most important thing right now is the humanitarian aspect of this tragedy: ensuring people who have been displaced have warm shelter and basic human necessities and evacuating structures that have a high probability of collapsing in a large aftershock. I am thankful for every person who is helping with that effort.”

, lecturer of international studies at the UW, is a retired foreign service officer. His expertise includes humanitarian emergencies, disasters from natural and human causes and public-private partnerships in disaster response.

“Turkish authorities will probably mount an effective response,” Ward said. “They have a lot of experience and international support. The situation in northwest Syria will be far more dire, where the seemingly endless civil war will make emergency response much, much harder.”

Scientists who drilled deeper into an undersea earthquake fault than ever before have found that the tectonic stress in Japan鈥檚 Nankai subduction zone is less than expected.

The results of the led by the 91探花 and the University of Texas at Austin, published Sept. 5 in Geology, are a puzzle, since the fault produces a great earthquake almost every century and was thought to be building for another big one.

Although the Nankai fault has been stuck for decades, the findings reveal that it is not yet showing major signs of pent-up tectonic stress. Authors say the result doesn鈥檛 alter the long-term outlook for the fault, which last ruptured in 1946, when it caused a tsunami that killed thousands, and is expected to do so again during the next 50 years.

The findings will help scientists home in on the link between tectonic forces and the earthquake cycle. This could potentially lead to better earthquake forecasts, both at Nankai and other megathrust faults, like the Cascadia subduction zone off the coast of Washington and Oregon.

鈥淩ight now, we have no way of knowing if the big one for Cascadia 鈥� a magnitude-9 scale earthquake and tsunami 鈥� will happen this afternoon or 200 years from now,鈥� said lead author , a 91探花professor of Earth and space sciences and co-chief scientist on the drilling expedition. 鈥淏ut I have some optimism that with more and more direct observations like this one from Japan we can start to recognize when something anomalous is occurring and that the risk of an earthquake is heightened in a way that could help people prepare.

“We learn how these faults work by studying them all over the world, and that knowledge will directly translate into insight into the Cascadia hazard as well.鈥�

Megathrust faults such as Nankai and Cascadia, and the tsunamis they generate, are among the most powerful and damaging on the globe. Scientists say they currently have no reliable way of knowing when and where the next big one will hit.

The hope is that by directly measuring the force felt between tectonic plates pushing on each other 鈥� tectonic stress 鈥� scientists can learn when a great earthquake is ready to happen.

鈥淭his is the heart of the subduction zone, right above where the fault is locked, where the expectation was that the system should be storing energy between earthquakes,鈥� said co-author at University of Texas at Austin, who also co-led the scientific drilling expedition. 鈥淚t changes the way we鈥檙e thinking about stress in these systems.鈥�

The nature of tectonics means that the great earthquake faults are found in deep ocean, miles under the seafloor, making them incredibly challenging to measure directly. Tobin and Saffer鈥檚 drilling expedition is the closest scientists have come.

Their aboard a Japanese scientific drilling ship, the Chikyu, which drilled almost 2 miles, or just over 3 kilometers, into the tectonic plate before the borehole got too unstable to continue 鈥� 1 mile short of the fault.

Nevertheless, the researchers gathered invaluable data about subsurface conditions near the fault, including stress. To do that, they measured how much the borehole changed shape as the Earth squeezed it from the sides, then pumped water to see what it took to force its walls back out. That told them the direction and strength of horizontal stress felt by the plate pushing on the fault.

Contrary to predictions, the horizontal stress expected to have built up since the most recent great earthquake was close to zero, as if the system had already released its pent-up energy.

The researchers suggested several explanations: It could be that the fault simply needs less pent-up energy than thought to slip in a big earthquake, or that the stresses are lurking nearer to the fault than the drilling reached. Or it could be that the tectonic push will come suddenly in the coming years. Either way, the researchers said the drilling showed the need for further investigation and long-term monitoring of the fault.

鈥淔indings like this can seem like they muddy the picture, because things aren’t as simple as our theory or models predicted they were,鈥� Tobin said. 鈥淏ut that just means we’re gaining more understanding of how the real world works, and the real world is messy and complicated.鈥�

The research was funded by the Integrated Ocean Drilling Program and the Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, or JAMSTEC. Other co-authors are Takehiro Hirose at JAMSTEC and David Castillo at Insight GeoMechanics in Australia.

###

For more information, contact Tobin at htobin@uw.edu or Saffer at demian@ig.utexas.edu.

Adapted from an by the University of Texas at Austin.

The National Science Foundation has funded a multi-institutional team led by Oregon State University and the 91探花 to work on increasing resiliency among Pacific Northwest coastal communities.

The new Cascadia Coastlines and Peoples Hazards Research Hub will serve coastal communities in Northern California, Oregon and Washington. The hub鈥檚 multidisciplinary approach will span geoscience, social science, public policy and community partnerships.

The Pacific Northwest coastline is at significant risk of earthquakes from the Cascadia Subduction Zone, an offshore fault that stretches more than 600 miles from Cape Mendocino in California to southern British Columbia. The region also faces ongoing risks from coastal erosion, regional flooding and rising seas due to climate change.

The newly established Cascadia CoPes Hub, based at OSU, will increase the capacity of coastal communities to adapt through community engagement and co-production of research, and by training a new generation of coastal hazards scientists and leaders from currently underrepresented communities.

The initial award is for $7.2 million over the first two years, with the bulk split between OSU and the UW. The total award, subject to renewals, is $18.9 million over five years.

鈥淭his issue requires a regional approach,鈥� said co-principal investigator Ann Bostrom, a 91探花professor of public policy and governance. 鈥淭his new research hub has the potential to achieve significant advances across the hazard sciences 鈥� from the understanding of governance systems, to having a four-dimensional understanding of Cascadia faults and how they work, and better understanding the changing risks of compound fluvial-coastal flooding, to new ways of engaging with communities to co-produce research that will be useful for coastal planning and decisions in our region. There are a lot of aspects built into this project that have us all excited.鈥�

The community collaborations, engagement and outreach will focus on five areas: Humboldt County, California; greater Coos Bay, Oregon; Newport to Astoria, Oregon; Tokeland to Taholah, Washington; and from Everett to Bellingham, Washington.

鈥淲e have a lot to learn from the communities in our region, and part of the proposal is to help communities learn from each other, as well,鈥� Bostrom said.

The Cascadia hub is part of the NSF鈥檚 newly announced , an effort to help coastal communities become more resilient in the face of mounting environmental pressures. Nearly 40% of the U.S. population lives in a coastal county. The NSF established one other large-scale hub for research and broadening participation, in New Jersey, and focused hubs in Texas, North Carolina and Virginia.

The Cascadia hub will focus on two broad areas: advancing understanding of the risks of Cascadia earthquakes and other geological hazards to coastal regions; and reducing disaster risk through assessment, planning and policymaking.

鈥淲e鈥檙e not thinking only about the possibility of one magnitude-9 earthquake; this effort is about the fabric of hazards over time,鈥� said co-principal investigator , a 91探花professor of Earth and space sciences and director of the Pacific Northwest Seismic Network. 鈥淭he heart of this project is merging physical science and social science with a community focus in an integrated way 鈥� translating scientific discovery with actions that coastal communities can use.鈥�

The project intentionally emphasizes incorporating traditional ecological knowledge from the region鈥檚 Native American tribes as well as local ecological knowledge from fishers, farmers and others who have personal history and experience with coastal challenges.

鈥淲e are committed to co-producing research together with coastal communities and integrating multiple perspectives about disaster risk and its management,鈥� said , an assistant professor in UW鈥檚 Department of Environmental and Occupational Health Sciences, who is co-leading the hub鈥檚 Community Adaptive Capacity and Community Engagement and Outreach teams.

鈥淭here are many dimensions to resilience, including economics, health, engineering and more,鈥� said principal investigator , a professor at OSU. 鈥淭his research hub is a way to bring together a lot of groups with interest in coastal resilience who have not had the resources to work together on these issues.鈥�

The research hub鈥檚 other principal investigators are , a 91探花associate professor of Earth and space sciences who will lead efforts to quantify the timing, triggers and effects of landslide hazards on communities and on landscape evolution, and , a professor of sociology at OSU. The other institutional partners are Washington Sea Grant, Oregon Sea Grant, University of Oregon, Washington State University, Humboldt State University, the U.S. Geological Survey, the Swinomish Indian Tribal Community, Georgia Tech University and Arizona State University.

For more information, contact Bostrom at abostrom@uw.edu, Ruggiero at 541-737-1239 or peter.ruggiero@oregonstate.edu and Tobin at htobin@uw.edu. See related press releases from and .

For journalists:听

On May 4, 2021, the U.S. Geological Survey, the 91探花-based and the Washington Emergency Management Division activated a system called ShakeAlert that sends earthquake early warnings throughout Washington state directly to people’s cell phones.

PNSN operates a growing network of about 230 seismic stations in Washington and some 155 stations in Oregon that provide data for ShakeAlert. When four or more of these instruments detect unusual shaking, that motion is analyzed by computers on the 91探花campus that quickly calculate the size and location of the seismic event.

The 91探花is part of a consortium of universities that developed the earthquake early warning system in partnership with the USGS. Seismologists are continuing to build out and improve the system, even as public alerting has been activated.

Read full story:听/news/2021/05/03/earthquake-early-warnings-launch-in-washington-completing-west-coast-wide-shakealert-system/

For more information, contact Kiyomi Taguchi at ktaguchi@uw.edu or 206-685-2716.

When the Big One hits, the first thing Washington residents notice may not be the ground shaking, but their phone issuing a warning. The U.S. Geological Survey, the 91探花-based and the Washington Emergency Management Division on Tuesday, May 4, will activate the system that sends earthquake early warnings throughout Washington state. This completes the tri-state rollout of , an automated system that gives people living in Washington, Oregon and California advance warning of incoming earthquakes.

鈥淔or the first time, advance warning of imminent earthquake shaking will be a reality in our region. Even just seconds, up to a minute of warning is enough to prepare yourself and take cover 鈥斕齛ctions that may spare you from injury or even save your life,鈥� said , a 91探花professor of Earth and space sciences and director of the PNSN, which operates the seismic monitoring in Washington and Oregon.

Once the system goes live on May 4, the first signs of an earthquake above a magnitude 4.5 or 5, about when the shaking becomes noticeable indoors, will trigger an alert and a reminder to drop, cover and hold on. Warning times range from a few seconds to tens of seconds depending on your distance to the epicenter. The launch will be silent 鈥� there will be no test on May 4.

The PNSN operates a growing network of about 230 seismic stations in Washington and some 155 stations in Oregon that provide data for ShakeAlert. When four or more of these instruments detect unusual shaking, that motion is analyzed by computers, some of them on the 91探花campus, that quickly calculate the size and location of the event.

People connected to the Wireless Emergency Alert system (the same system that produces AMBER alerts), will now get earthquake alerts for events of magnitude 5 or greater, using a similar interface. Alerts for events of magnitude 4.5 or above will be integrated into Android devices, where screens will also show the earthquake鈥檚 approximate magnitude and location. When people get an alert, they should use the brief warning to seek immediate protection, following this . No downloads are required 鈥� find out .

The ShakeAlert system, similar to existing early warning systems in Mexico and Japan, began sending alerts in California in 2019 and in Oregon in March 2021. With the addition of Washington state, the system will now issue warnings to millions more people at risk from the largest possible earthquake in the lower 48 states 鈥� a rupture of the offshore Cascadia Subduction Zone, a 700-mile fault that runs from California鈥檚 Cape Mendocino to the tip of Canada鈥檚 Vancouver Island (discovered in part through 91探花research). The alerts will also warn of potentially damaging earthquakes that are more likely to occur sooner, on one of crustal faults in the Puget Sound region alone, or deeper slips on the underlying ocean plate. The system works by detecting the first signs of an earthquake before the slower-moving but more damaging ground-shaking waves arrive.

The PNSN began testing the ShakeAlert system with select Washington and Oregon businesses, utilities and organizations in 2015. Besides the individual alerts on phones, the system will be available for organizations or businesses to incorporate into their emergency plans 鈥� for instance, to close water valves, slow trains to prevent derailment, halt surgeries or pause sensitive equipment before the shaking starts.

鈥淏usiness in the pilot program have used these alerts to close valves for water and natural gas, stop rotating equipment and alert employees. We have also partnered with Stanwood Elementary School, which has connected the system to its PA system so students can do earthquake drills that use ShakeAlert,鈥� said PNSN communications manager Bill Steele, who has coordinated the regional test users.

Scientists at the PNSN are continuing to improve the system. About 65% of the planned seismic stations in the network are complete in Washington state. PNSN field teams will install more seismometers through late 2025 in places like the Olympic Peninsula and Eastern Washington.

鈥淭he network is successfully detecting earthquakes now, but that doesn鈥檛 mean we can鈥檛 make it even better. We鈥檙e continuing to install seismometers and improve algorithms to make the alerts faster and more reliable, to give people more warning time and lower the chance of any missed events or false alarms,鈥� Tobin said.

Initial development of the earthquake alert system by three West Coast universities, including the UW, began a decade ago and was funded by the Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation. The buildout of the system was funded by Congress, with major grants administered by the USGS in 2015 and 2019, and completed by federal and state agencies working with a consortium of four West Coast universities: the UW; the University of Oregon; the University of California, Berkeley; and the California Institute of Technology.

The Washington system also got state funding in the 2020-21 budget. Private support for Washington鈥檚 system has also come from the M.J. Murdock Charitable Trust, Amazon, Puget Sound Energy and individual donors.

For more information, contact Tobin at htobin@uw.edu, Steele at wsteele@uw.edu and 206-601-5978, or PNSN ShakeAlert user engagement lead Gabriel Lotto at glotto@uw.edu.

See also a USGS and a Washington Emergency Management Division .

Leveraging the tectonic laboratory of the Cascadia subduction zone, the 91探花 today announced a new effort to best understand how to study and live with the threats of earthquakes, tsunamis, volcanos, landslides and other seismic hazards. Dubbed the GeoHazards Initiative, the interdisciplinary work aims to develop and promote the adoption of early detection systems both on land and at sea to help prevent the loss of human life and property.

鈥淭he vision ultimately is for an integrated initiative that will span geohazards and their impact on society,鈥� said , the newly named Paros Endowed Chair in Seismology and Geohazards. 鈥淎 big goal of this new effort is to bring together the strengths of different pieces of the 91探花research community to tackle all these problems in a truly novel way that can help us make progress on understanding all of those hazardous events and how to mitigate their damaging effects.鈥�

The initiative鈥檚 starting place will be focused on sensors, both on land and at sea, that can help scientists better understand seismic events and how to detect them as they begin, and even to determine times and places where risk may be heightened.

鈥淲e need to be able to detect movement deep beneath the ground both on land and under the ocean equally, in order to take this to the next level,鈥� Tobin said, who already is the Washington state seismologist, directs the , and is a professor in the Department of Earth & Space Sciences. 鈥淎nd that’s traditionally been two different realms here at the university. But really it鈥檚 all an Earth process and we need to work together.鈥�

Tobin will initially partner with researchers in the 91探花School of Oceanography and the 91探花Applied Physics Lab, with hopes to bring other parts of the university in as the research progresses.

The work is fueled by a $2 million gift from Jerome 鈥淛erry鈥� M. Paros to fund the named chair. Additionally, 91探花will match that gift with $2 million to be used over 20 years to launch and support the initiative.

鈥淭he 91探花is uniquely positioned to be a leader in understanding how geohazards impact our lives,鈥� said Paros, a leader in the field of geophysical measurements. He is the founder, president and chairman of Paroscientific, Inc., Quartz Seismic Sensors, Inc. and related companies that use the quartz crystal resonator technology he developed to measure pressure, acceleration, temperature, weight and other parameters. 鈥淲e just now are beginning to have better detection systems on land and at sea. This effort knits these resources together under Harold鈥檚 direction. We couldn鈥檛 be better positioned to push this work forward, ideally protecting property and saving lives.鈥�

Paros has supported science and education with philanthropic endowments at universities and organizations across the country. His prior contributions to the 91探花include the endowment of the Jerome M. Paros Chair in Sensor Networks and the Cascade Sensor Network Fund. These gifts support the research, development and deployment of new instrumentation and measurement systems that will advance cross-disciplinary knowledge in the oceanic, atmospheric and Earth sciences. In addition, Paros established the Paros Fund for Brain Research at the Institute for Learning & Brain Sciences.

With the Paros Endowed Chair in Seismology and Geohazards, Tobin now has a platform from which to launch the development of new sensing systems on land and under the sea, build coalitions of public and private stakeholders in the Pacific Northwest and beyond, and engage policymakers at the state and federal levels.

The initiative will launch new research to design, build and deploy arrays of ocean sensors to detect earthquakes, tsunamis and seafloor motion, and to provide data transmission that connects onshore and offshore observations to effectively detect emerging geohazards and mitigate against disasters.

Technological options for the array could include sensors connected to cables on the seafloor, attached to both dedicated research cables and existing commercial telecom cables. Arrays could also include offshore boreholes, standalone stations on the seafloor that store their data, and mobile platforms like drones or buoys.

鈥淥ffshore sensors can help provide early warning for earthquakes and tsunamis, and help advance scientific understanding of what鈥檚 happening under the ocean in the Cascadia subduction zone,鈥� said , the Jerome M. Paros听Endowed Chair in听Sensor Networks and professor in the School of Oceanography, who will also work on the GeoHazards Initiative.

鈥淲e already have systems on land that can provide early warnings of seismic events, but we now are developing technologies that can help us better understand earthquakes under the ocean and the tsunamis they produce,鈥� Wilcock said.

The researchers said they plan to investigate the fault systems onshore and offshore using geophysical imaging and direct measurements for groundtruthing to gain insight into the geohazard sources and processes.

鈥淭hese activities will build a strategic alliance across the university to position 91探花as the foremost hub of subduction hazard research, positioning us to compete for emerging national and international opportunities,鈥� Tobin said.

He said it was an honor to receive this new endowed chair in Paros鈥� name, a man who has personally been a driving force in the development of geophysical sensors that are in use across the world.

鈥淚 feel a responsibility to really make this initiative be effective and serve as a platform to work on these problems at a larger scale,鈥� Tobin said. 鈥淲e in Western Washington literally inhabit the subduction zone 鈥� the place where two plates meet 鈥� that is this perfect place to study all these processes from within them. And the 91探花 has the kind of critical mass of expertise and people, and the forward-looking science and technology, to really take concrete steps to leap forward our understanding not just for Washington but for the world.鈥�

For more information, reach Tobin at htobin@uw.edu.

The system was developed through a partnership between the 91探花 and other West Coast universities and the U.S. Geological Survey working with state emergency managers. The system uses ground sensors across the region to detect the first signals from a rupturing earthquake and then sends that information to computers and phones, providing seconds to tens of seconds of warning of an imminent earthquake.

91探花News sat down with Harold Tobin, professor of Earth and space sciences and director of the , to learn more.

How does it feel to be on the cusp of launching the ShakeAlert earthquake early warning system in Oregon and Washington?

The ShakeAlert earthquake early warning system has been a big and technically complicated thing to put together, so it has taken many years. It is really exciting and satisfying to see that all that effort and work by many people is coming to fruition. It鈥檚 a collaboration between the USGS, us at the PNSN at 91探花an also our counterparts at University of Oregon, Berkeley and Caltech.

The rollout for us has been somewhat incremental, in the sense that the system is functioning well now even as we work to improve our seismic network. We鈥檙e detecting earthquakes, and alerts are being delivered to technical partners including emergency managers, utilities and schools.

But the stage of broadcasting mass alerts is really a new step, and one that brings to fruition the dream of earthquake early warning. We鈥檙e really excited about bringing this directly to the public, and taking the capability we鈥檝e developed and actually putting it to use to increase public safety.

You鈥檙e director of the Pacific Northwest Seismic Network, which includes both Oregon and Washington. Why are the two states鈥� ShakeAlert systems launching at different times (and why is Washington last)?

California had the most developed network of seismometers, it has the most frequent earthquakes and the largest earthquake hazard, since it has a lot of population right along the San Andreas fault. So it made a lot of sense for California to roll it out first in late 2019.

Ultimately, ShakeAlert is one unified system for the whole West Coast. This is a collaboration between the ShakeAlert partners and state emergency management. Oregon chose the anniversary of the March 11 Tohoku earthquake and tsunami for its launch date. Washington鈥檚 Emergency Management Division is launching in May in order to have enough time to test the Wireless Emergency Alert system and prepare the public by educating people on what the ShakeAlert Earthquake Early Warning system is, how to receive alerts, and how to protect themselves when they receive an alert: drop, cover, and hold on.

How can people in听King, Pierce and Thurston counties sign up for the test taking place in late February? And how can Washingtonians sign up for the actual earthquake early warning system when it goes live in May?

Washington EMD and USGS have developed a simulated earthquake warning test message they will broadcast Feb. 25 on the Wireless Emergency Alert system, the nation鈥檚 universal alerting system. The test will evaluate how the WEA system performs for earthquake early warning in the Puget Sound area.

You have to , which is for users in Pierce, King and Thurston counties. Once ShakeAlert goes live in May, earthquake alerts will go to anyone in Washington who has WEA alerts enabled on their device.

There will also be another way that earthquake alerts will be delivered. If you have an Android phone device, Google has embedded it in the mobile operating system in late 2020. So those devices in California are getting alerts now, and we expect Android alerts will go live in Washington in May. We hope other phone operating systems will follow suit.

Washington ShakeAlert is a collaboration between the USGS, Washington Emergency Management and the PNSN. Can you explain how the three groups collaborate?

ShakeAlert is operated by the USGS in partnership with the PNSN and California seismic networks. The data that is generated to detect the earthquakes in Washington and Oregon comes from the PNSN, the seismic network operated out of the 91探花and the University of Oregon. We are direct partners in the research and development of this system. At the UW, we operate one of three computer systems that ingest the data and issue the alert messages; the others are at UC Berkeley and Caltech. There鈥檚 a strong partnership between the PNSN and the USGS on earthquake detection and the continuing development of the system that issues the warnings. Washington Emergency Management is responsible for public safety, and so they are determining the types of public alerts that will be released, the messaging, public education and appropriate responses.

This is a great example of a partnership among all those entities. We are all working toward this same goal, of increasing earthquake awareness and public safety.

The PNSN began testing the system back in 2015 with early adopters. What have you learned from that experience?

A system like this is complicated, and will reach everyone, so we have to test it really extensively. We鈥檙e decreasing the number of false or missed alerts in our beta system. Just seeing more and more events has allowed us to improve the algorithms, to distinguish between a false alarm and a real signal, and to better pinpoint the magnitude and location of the earthquake. A typical time frame is now 2 seconds for our computers to decide on the location and magnitude of the earthquake and to generate the alert 鈥� the pace that that happens is unbelievable.

Now that the system is about to go public, how will other businesses, schools, organizations or agencies be able to incorporate these alerts into their emergency plans?

The USGS licenses partners to develop products that take the ShakeAlert message and can connect to other systems. A number of those licensed offer systems that can be adopted, such as a box that can be hooked up to a school PA system and automatically issue a prerecorded message that alerts students to drop, cover and hold on. Any business that has staff in a facility can think about how they can incorporate earthquake early warnings into their own facility. ShakeAlert messages can also trigger automated actions to pause manufacturing processes, move elevators to the next floor and open the doors, close valves on reservoirs, and initiate other loss-reduction actions.

What should someone do when they get their first 鈥渞eal鈥� alert?

When someone gets an alert, the appropriate action to take is to drop, cover and hold on. It鈥檚 important to get under a protective cover. Most injuries from earthquakes in the U.S. are not from the catastrophic collapse of a building but from falling objects 鈥� lights, ceiling tiles, etc.

If you鈥檙e driving in a car, the appropriate action would be to pull over and stop the car, if possible. If you鈥檙e in a building, stay in a building. The message is really to brace yourself 鈥� drop, cover and hold on. That message, to pause and protect yourself, is key. (Washington Emergency Management has more tips .)

What about British Columbia? Will the earthquake early warning system extend across the border?

Natural Resources Canada is working in parallel to develop an earthquake early warning system. We already use data from seismometers in Canada, and we incorporate that information in our alerts 鈥� earthquake waves don鈥檛 stop at the border.

Can we expect any improvements or changes coming down the line?

Yes, we鈥檙e improving the system all the time. We are going live with public testing of this system because we know that it fundamentally works, but we鈥檙e also continuously improving the system. We have hundreds of seismic stations in place but we鈥檙e adding dozens more, so that we can optimize the network to detect earthquakes wherever they occur within the region.

We鈥檙e also continuously improving the computer algorithms that detect the raw data and decide where and how big the earthquake is. Once it goes live, there will be no pause in improving the system. We would also love to add more offshore detection systems, since offshore quakes are a challenge to detect accurately.

For me, this is an exciting example of science to action, of things that are driven by fundamental science and research in seismology that show the way to something that can do some tangible good for society 鈥� to increase public safety. It鈥檚 exciting to see that happening with the ShakeAlert system.

For more information, contact Tobin at htobin@uw.edu or Bill Steele, communications director at the Pacific Northwest Seismic Network, at wsteele@uw.edu and 206-685-5880.

The Pacific Northwest’s most recent large earthquake, the 2001 Nisqually earthquake near Seattle, was a magnitude 6.8, but history shows that the region could be rocked any day by a much larger event. At the American Association for the Advancement of Science’s annual meeting this week in Seattle, researchers from the 91探花 and federal agencies will discuss the latest science on megaquakes as an emerging topic of concern.

A set of three presentations and discussions, “” will take place on Saturday, Feb. 15, at the Washington State Convention Center.

Organized by , an assistant professor of Earth and space sciences at the UW, and , a 91探花professor of Earth and space sciences and director of the UW-based , the event will provide the latest research on seismic hazards, both along the coast and in built-up areas inland.

“We hope to inform the audience and public about what is and is not known about subduction-zone earthquakes and their effects,” Tobin said. “While the scenarios will be specific to Cascadia, the fundamental work is about investigating how fault movement launches tsunamis and under what conditions the seismic waves create ground shaking that affects buildings and other structures.”

The title references a line from the infamous 2015 New Yorker article, “,” that put Pacific Northwest megaquakes on the popular radar. Evidence from tsunamis shows that a huge earthquake occurred off the Pacific Northwest on January 26, 1700. The U.S. Geological Survey estimates a 14% chance it could occur again in the next 50 years.

The session will consider both what such an earthquake might look like, and what it could mean for buildings and other structures in Seattle 鈥� many of which were built before the region’s seismic hazards were fully understood.

, director of the Center for Tsunami Research at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, will begin the session at 3:30 p.m. with a discussion of , which is the greatest hazard to communities on the Washington and Oregon coasts. Then, , a research geophysicist at the U.S. Geological Survey and 91探花affiliate assistant professor in Earth and space sciences, will present on .

Wirth builds on her 2017 work, as a 91探花postdoctoral researcher, that simulated what a magnitude-9 megathrust earthquake could look like depending on where along the Cascadia subduction zone the offshore rupture starts, and how close the slipping gets to cities on land. The team has now refined its results and begun to apply the simulations to estimate infrastructure damage.

“Since we don’t have any direct observational records of the 1700 earthquake, our 3D supercomputer simulations of various possible magnitude-9 Cascadia earthquake scenarios has allowed us to quantify the range of possible ground shaking the Pacific Northwest might experience,” Wirth said.

, a 91探花professor of civil and environmental engineering, will close with a talk focused on damage, titled: “.” He is leading the research on building response with , a 91探花professor of civil and environmental engineering.

On Saturday, Berman will share results of a published this month in the Journal of Structural Engineering that considers how 32 midrise to tall building types, ranging from 4 to 40 stories, would fare in 30 different simulated Cascadia magnitude-9 earthquakes. The study led by , a 91探花postdoctoral researcher, finds that the current building codes underestimate how much shaking would occur as the loose soil in the Seattle basin amplifies the frequency of waves generated by offshore earthquakes, with strong shaking projected to last for almost two minutes.

“The Cascadia subduction zone ground motions have longer duration and different frequency content than the ground motions experienced in California, which has formed the basis for most U.S. building codes,” Berman said. “The impact of those differences on structural performance was a big unknown prior to this research.”

Each presentation will also include questions from those attending the AAAS annual meeting.

“We are hoping that our session communicates the latest in subduction-zone research, but we also look forward to opening up a dialog between panelists and the audience,” Duvall said. “The AAAS format is special that way, that it offers a real chance for two-way communication.”