The share of Washingtonians living below the federal poverty threshold declined from 11.0 to 10.3 percent between 2017 and 2018, according to new Census data released Thursday.  Washington was one of 14 states in which poverty rates fell between 2017 and 2018.

Washington’s poverty rate is lower than the poverty rate in most states.  Eight states – Hawaii, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Maryland, Minnesota, Colorado, Utah and Massachusetts – have lower rates. Across the nation, only Connecticut saw an increase in poverty rates.

Poverty rates for Seattle and King County (11.0% and 9.3% respectively) remain statistically unchanged since 2017.

“The persistence of poverty amid Seattle’s growing affluence is striking,” said , director of the at the 91̽�� and an associate professor of social work. “While many people benefit from our strong local economy, we should keep in mind that 1 in 9 Seattle residents lives below the poverty line.”

Poverty varies by household size.  A single person under age 65 is considered poor if their total income falls below $13,064. A family with two adults and two children is poor with income below $25,465. Poverty also varies around the region, with Renton and Redmond having smaller percentages of residents under the poverty line (7.5% and 5.5%, respectively), and Kent (15.5%) and Federal Way (15.8%) having higher poverty rates.

Following the recent trend, households in Washington saw statistically significant increases in income between 2017 and 2018.  State median household income rose 4.4% to $74,073 in 2018.  At $93,481, median income was even higher in Seattle, a year-on-year gain of 7.7%.  The number of high-income households – those with income above $200,000 per year – rose sharply in Seattle, with 20.9% more households in that category than in 2017.  King County posted similar gains, with median income rising 5.9% to $95,009 in 2018 and a 13.8% increase in the number of households with earnings above $200,000.

Nationwide, income inequality increased between 2017 and 2018.  In Washington state and in the Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue metropolitan area, income inequality has increased since 2010 but did not change significantly between 2017 and 2018.

For more information, contact Romich at romich@uw.edu.

The share of Washingtonians living below the federal poverty threshold declined slightly from 11.3 percent to 11 percent between 2016 and 2017, according to new Census released Thursday. While this change was not statistically significant, the 2017 poverty rate remains below the post-recession high of 14.1 percent in 2013.

Washington was one of 28 states and the District of Columbia where poverty rates remained statistically unchanged from the prior year. During that period, poverty rates declined in 20 states and increased in two states (Delaware and West Virginia).

There was a small but statistically significant decline in the poverty rate in the Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue metropolitan area, from 9.6 percent in 2016 to 9 percent in 2017, but the 2017 rates remained statistically unchanged in King County and Seattle (9.3 percent and 11.1 percent, respectively).

“I would have liked to see a real decline in poverty given the income gains reported,” said , director of the at the 91̽�� and an associate professor of social work. “The slow progress and local stagnation on poverty stands in contrast to how well middle and higher-earning households are doing.”

Households in Washington saw statistically significant increases in income between 2016 and 2017, following a steady trend for the last several years. State median household income rose 3.8 percent to $70,979 in 2017. At $86,822, median income was even higher in Seattle, an inflation-adjusted increase of more than $13,000 since 2013. King County posted similar gains, rising from $75,416 in 2013 to $89,675 in 2017. The proportion of high earners grew as well: Between 2012 and 2017, the share of households in King County with annual incomes of $200,000 has increased from 8.7 percent to 15.7 percent.

###

For more information, contact Romich at 206-616-6121 or romich@uw.edu or Melissa Martinson at melmart@uw.edu.

The share of Washingtonians living in poverty dropped from 12.2 percent to 11.3 percent between 2015 and 2016, according to new Census data released Thursday.  This is the third straight year that poverty has decreased since the post-recession high of 14.1 percent in 2013.

Washington was one of 24 states with statistically significant declines in their poverty rates during that period. Poverty increased in Vermont and remained statistically unchanged in the other states and in the District of Columbia.

Poverty edged down in the Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue metropolitan area as well, dropping from 10.2 percent to 9.6 percent between 2015 and 2016. The poverty rate for children remains higher than the general rate.  Statewide, 13.7 percent of Washington children live in households under the poverty threshold, which is $24,339 for a family of four.  In the Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue area, the child poverty rate is 11.9 percent.

“It is good news that the poverty rate has dropped for a third year in a row in Washington state. However, we should keep in mind that one in nine children in the Seattle metro area still lives in poverty, despite our region’s growing wealth,” said , director of the at the 91̽�� and an associate professor of social work.

Washington was one of 30 states that saw statistically significant increases in income:  State median household income rose 4.6 percent to $67,106.  Median household income in the Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue metropolitan area also rose 4.4 percent to $78,612.  Seattle remains the major metropolitan area with the fourth highest income, after San Francisco, Washington D.C., and Boston.

In the Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue metro area, an estimated 13,700 more households had income over $200,000 in 2016 than in 2015.  These highest-income households comprise 14.1 percent of all households in the area.

###

For more information, contact Romich at romich@uw.edu.

But there is heightened interest in the new administration’s priorities, and whether services to the poor will be among them.

That lack of certainty — and a need to share information — prompted the and the to host a panel discussion with local agency representatives at 5 p.m. May 9 at the Langston Hughes Performing Arts Institute, 104 17th Ave. S., Seattle.

The event is free and open to the public.

“It’s about sharing information and understanding impact,” said , an associate professor in the School of Social Work and director of the West Coast Poverty Center. “To do our work effectively, we need to understand the changes in the policy environment and consider how the lives of our constituents may change.”

On the panel are Social Work faculty members and , along with Gordon McHenry, Jr., president and chief executive officer of ; Nicole Keenan, executive director of the ; Andrew Lofton, executive director of the ; and Aiko Schaefer, a leader of (formerly Communities of Color for Climate Justice).

The work of these groups, combined with the research and involvement of the UW, Romich said, thread together all of the issues faced by Seattle’s poor: having a good job and a place to live; help with food and transportation; clean air to breathe; and safe places for children to play.

All of those needs could be impacted by federal policy changes or budgetary decisions. While little is known now, Romich said, facilitating a discussion is helpful. And opening it up to the public brings forward issues that might otherwise surface only in professional networks.

“How we treat the poor is a bellwether for how we treat all of society,” Romich said. “If you’re concerned about how the world is shifting, this is an opportunity to hear from knowledgeable folks and explore the topic.”

Space for the event is limited, so registration is required. Sign up .

Washington was one of 23 states with statistically significant declines in their poverty rates during that period. The remaining 27 states and the District of Columbia saw no change in their poverty rates.

“It is good news that the poverty rate has dropped for a second year in a row in Washington state. However, the share of Washingtonians living in deep poverty remained steady at nearly 6 percent (5.8 percent). That is nearly 406,000 Washingtonians with incomes less than 50 percent of the relevant poverty thresholds,” said , director of the at the 91̽�� and an associate professor of social work.

The poverty rate in the Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue metropolitan area dropped from 11.3 to 10.2 percent between 2014 and 2015. But the percentage of people living in deep poverty in the area remained statistically unchanged at 5.2 percent.

Poverty rates vary widely across the state of Washington. For example, Snohomish County had a poverty rate of 9.2 percent, while 16.1 percent of Grant County residents and 18.8 percent of Yakima County residents were estimated to be poor. As a whole, the Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue metropolitan area had a lower poverty rate (10.2 percent) than the state, but some cities within the metropolitan area, such as Everett (15.0 percent) and Tacoma (16.2 percent), face higher poverty rates.

. The estimated median annual household income in Washington for 2015 was $64,129, up 4.4 percent from $61,426 in 2014. Median income in the Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue area increased from $71,329 in 2014 to $75,331 in 2015, a change of 5.6 percent.

Although income inequality increased for the nation as a whole, there was no change in a measure of income inequality in Washington, or in 40 other states and the District of Columbia. Inequality in Washington state as measured by the Gini Index was .456 in 2015. The Gini Index is a summary measure of income inequality ranging from 0 when income is distributed equally across all households to 1 when one household holds all the income.

For more information, contact Romich at 206-372-7034 or romich@uw.edu.

The lot of Seattle’s lowest-paid workers improved following the city’s minimum wage increase to $11 in 2015, but that was more due to the robust regional economy than the wage hike itself, according to a research team at the 91̽��’s .

Although the ordinance appears to have boosted wages for the city’s lowest-paid workers, the benefits of the increase may have been partly offset by fewer hours worked per person and slightly less overall employment, the research team found. Estimated income gains for the average worker were modest – on the order of a few dollars a week – and sensitive to methodological choices.

The City of Seattle passed its in June of 2014, and that December commissioned the 91̽��team to conduct a five-year study of the law’s impacts. The ongoing research is led by professors and with , associate professor in the 91̽��, and other co-authors from the Evans School, the and the Washington Employment Security Department.

The team presented its in an update to the council this morning (July 25).

The ordinance took effect April 1, 2015, raising the minimum hourly wage from $9.47 to $11. Under the law, businesses with fewer than 500 employees are scheduled to reach the $15 an hour wage in 2021. Employers with 500 or more employees, either in Seattle or nationally, will reach that level in three years, or 2017.

The challenge of this report, Vigdor said, was to isolate the effects of the wage increase ordinance from all other concurrent economic factors, chiefly the surging regional economy. This enables the researchers to compare Seattle to what it might look like today had the minimum wage ordinance never happened — knowing, too, that the strong economy was slowly pushing wages up regardless of the ordinance.

For their research, the team used employment, hours and earnings records from the Washington Employment Security Division going back to 2005 to create a model of how the local labor market works. They also viewed data on other nearby regions that did not increase their minimum wage, to better understand how rising property values, expanding tech employment and even the weather might have influenced what the team observed in the city itself.

The research sought to answer two questions: What has happened to Seattle’s labor market since passage of the minimum wage ordinance? And more crucially, what has been the effect of that ordinance on the labor market?

The first question involves simple comparisons of yesterday with today. But, Vigor said, “To imagine what a higher minimum wage might accomplish in a region not enjoying a significant economic boom, or what might happen in Seattle next year if the boom should wear off, the second question is the only one that matters.”

The researchers found that:

• Seattle’s lowest-paid workers saw larger-than-usual paychecks in late 2015, but at most, only 25 percent of the observed income gains — a few dollars a week — can be attributed to the higher wage.

• Businesses relying heavily on low-wage staff showed signs of cutting back, though they too benefited from the strong economy. They added jobs at about the same rate as businesses outside the city, but employees’ working hours in the city lagged by an average of about one hour per employee per week.

• Even amid a relative boom, Seattle’s lowest-wage earners show signs of “lagging behind” a control group drawn from other parts of the state. The employment rate was down about 1 percentage point for workers who earned less than $11 an hour in mid-2014; their average hours declined, and the proportion switching from jobs in the city to elsewhere ticked upward by 2 to 3 percent.

“Our report indicates that Seattle’s track record after increasing the minimum wage is neither as negative as some had feared nor as positive as some had hoped,” Vigdor said. “While the vibrant local economy is boosting employment and incomes up and down the economic ladder, the positive effects of a higher minimum wage are being at least partly offset by cutbacks in hours.”

The researchers cautioned, however, that their findings are statistical averages that could mask distinctions among different types of workers. The findings address only the short-run impact of Seattle’s wage hike to $11 an hour and don’t reflect the full range of experiences for thousands of individual workers in the Seattle economy.

Next, the research team plans to incorporate more detailed information about workers by linking employment records to other state databases. This will provide the capacity to determine, for instance, whether the workers benefiting most from higher minimum wages are more likely to be living in poverty.

Other coming work will include:

• Extending the analysis to Seattle’s second wage increase, in April 2016, when the ordinance began distinguishing between businesses of different sizes
• Collecting additional survey information from Seattle businesses and conducting more interviews with a sample of workers tracked since early 2015.

The team expects to make its next report to the city in September; that report will focus on how the minimum wage hike has impacted Seattle nonprofit organizations.

91̽��co-investigators on the ongoing study are of the UW’s and , and of the Evans School. Other co-investigators are Scott Bailey and Anneliese Vance-Sherman of the state employment security department.

The research was funded in part by the Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development grant to the UW’s . Funding also was provided by the Laura and John Arnold Foundation, the Russell Sage Foundation and the City of Seattle.

###

For more information, contact the research team at mwage@uw.edu or J. Paul Blake, Evans School director of media and external relations, at 206-543-3958 or jpblake@uw.edu.

Grant # R24 HD042828

But a year after the law’s April 2015 implementation, the study indicates such increases don’t seem to be happening.

The interdisciplinary team, centered in the surveyed employers and workers and scanned area commodity and service prices. The team’s report found “little or no evidence” of price increases in Seattle relative to other areas, its report states.

The City of Seattle’s was adopted in June of 2014, and began taking effect on April 1, 2015. Under the law, businesses with fewer than 500 employees will reach the $15 an hour wage in seven years, or 2021. Employers with 500 or more employees (either in Seattle or nationally) will reach that level in three years.

When approving the ordinance, the Seattle City Council also commissioned a thorough study of the law’s impacts, and sealed a contract with the 91̽��in December 2014. The study is led by Evans School professors and with , associate professor in the 91̽��, and other co-authors from the Evans School and the . Two economists from the Washington Employment Security Department are also on the team.

The researchers released April 18 in a presentation to the Seattle City Council.

The study, conducted between January and May 2015, surveyed 567 randomly selected Seattle employers as well as 55 workers, asking their awareness of and feelings about its expected and actual effects, to establish a baseline for that information.

Responses indicate that nearly all employers knew about the new law, though many were uncertain about its implementation. Many employers expressed hope the higher wages will improve both worker morale and boost job applications, though they also doubt it will improve individual employee productivity among minimum wage workers.

Sixty-two percent of employers said they expected to raise prices of goods and services to accommodate the higher wages brought by the law. Ten percent of the employers believed incorrectly that the ordinance would force their business to move to a $15 wage immediately upon implementation.

But in an analysis of area prices over time, done through a combination of “web scraping” and in-person visits to grocery stores, restaurants and other retail locations, such price increases were not in evidence.

“Our preliminary analysis of grocery, retail and rent prices has found little or no evidence of price increases in Seattle relative to the surrounding area,” the team concluded.

Workers, for their part — many of whom reported struggling to make ends meet despite community and government assistance — responded to the survey wondering doubtfully if the wage increases would truly improve their financial situation. Most knew about the law but many were uncertain of details, the study found.

“Today’s report documents both the hopes and fears that workers and business managers expressed as Seattle began its initiative to raise the minimum wage,” said Vigdor. “Business owners are hopeful that small changes to their operation — such as small price increases — will keep them in the black.

“Workers are hopeful about the promise of greater income, but harbor few illusions about the potential for price increases, or reductions in government benefits, to eat away at these gains.”

The team’s subsequent study on the Seattle minimum wage law will include:

• A second round of worker interviews this spring to learn more about its effects on work and family life, and more in spring of 2017 if funding allows.
• Analysis this spring of employment security data on employment, hours, and earnings for a report to be released this summer
• Another full survey of employers and workers in 2017.
• A brief follow-up survey of employers this summer to depict changes over time.
• Continued study of prices, expanding to the areas outside Seattle.
• A study this fall on the impact of the ordinance on Seattle nonprofits, through surveys and interviews.

“From its inception, this study has sought to do more than track employment figures,” Vigdor said. “Our team hopes to develop a full understanding of how businesses and nonprofits change their practices to accommodate higher wages, and of whether a higher minimum wage meaningfully transforms lives. Today’s report showcases that broader approach.”

Vigdor and Long’s co-investigators on the Seattle Minimum Wage Study are of the UW’s and , and of the Evans School. Other co-investigators are Scott Bailey and Anneliese Vance-Sherman of the state employment security department.

The research was funded in part by the Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development grant to the UW’s . Funding also was provided by the Laura and John Arnold Foundation, the Russell Sage Foundation and the City of Seattle.

###

For more information, contact the research team at mwage@uw.edu or J. Paul Blake, Evans School director of media and external relations, at 206-543-3958 or jpblake@uw.edu.

Grant # R24 HD042828

In 2013, 14.1 percent of Washington residents (967,282 people) were living in poverty, up from 13.5 percent (915,278 people) in 2012. Two other states, New Jersey and New Mexico, also saw significant increases in their poverty rates and number of poor residents during this period.

“This increase in the poverty rate alongside higher income inequality shows that the economic recovery has not reached many low-income Washingtonians,” said , director of the at the 91̽�� and an associate professor of social work.

New Jersey and Washington were the only two states where both poverty and inequality – how inequitably income is distributed – increased.

North Dakota saw the number of poor people, but not its poverty rate, increase, while four states – Colorado, New Hampshire, Texas and Wyoming – saw their poverty rates and/or numbers decrease. In the remaining 42 states and the District of Columbia, poverty rates and the number of people in poverty were unchanged from 2012.

“The poverty rate is an indicator of how well the most vulnerable do in our economy. The overall national picture suggests that economic growth is failing to reach everyone,” Romich said.

Poverty rates vary widely across the state of Washington. For example, Kitsap and Island counties had a poverty rate of 11.3 percent, while 20.8 percent of Yakima County residents were estimated to be poor. As a whole, the Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue metropolitan area had a lower poverty rate (12.6 percent) than the state, but some cities within the metropolitan area, such as Everett and Tacoma, face higher poverty rates.

The estimated was $58,405, unchanged from the last two years. For comparison, in the nation as a whole, median household income rose in 14 states and remained unchanged in 36 states and the District of Columbia. Median income in the Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue area was $67,479, giving the Seattle area the sixth-highest median income among the nation’s 25 largest metropolitan areas.

Income increased for middle- and upper-income Washingtonians, with the largest gains going to households in the top 5 percent of the income distribution. Income for the bottom 40 percent of households was statistically unchanged. As a result, income inequality in Washington state increased between 2012 and 2013. Income inequality increased significantly nationwide and in 14 other states.

###

For more information, contact Romich at romich@uw.edu or 206-372-7034.