The Pacific Northwest’s last magnitude-9 event from the offshore subduction zone was in 1700. Only a few clues remain about how it unfolded. But with the earthquake early warning system being built out and improved, seismologists want to know how ShakeAlert would do if the really big one were to happen today.

A research project by the 91̽�� and the U.S. Geological Survey uses simulations of different magnitude-9 slips on the Cascadia fault to evaluate how the ShakeAlert system would perform in 30 possible scenarios. Results show the alerts generally work well, but suggests ways the system could be improved for some of these highest-risk events.

The will be presented Dec. 13 as an online poster at the American Geophysical Union’s annual fall meeting, being held as a hybrid event based in New Orleans.

“I’ve experienced both the Loma Prieta and the Nisqually earthquakes, and both times my first thought was: ‘Is this really happening?’” said lead author , a 91̽��doctoral student in Earth and space sciences. “An early warning system gives people a moment to collect their thoughts and prepare to react. That’s especially important for a major earthquake.”

The work used detailed computer simulations of magnitude-9 earthquakes created for a previous study looking at how a big offshore event would play out, depending on where and how deep the Cascadia tectonic fault slipped. Thompson played those simulations through an off-line version of the ShakeAlert system and calculated the alerts that would go out across the region.

“The alerts are generally doing well, but they’re not perfect,” said co-author ,�� manager at the UW-based Pacific Northwest Seismic Network. “This project is trying to understand the system’s limitations so that we can make recommendations for future alerting strategies.”

The alerts performed well even though big offshore earthquakes are harder for the system to detect and locate. But there were cases in which a warning arrived too late to some areas.

For instance, when the simulated rupture started at the southern end of the fault, the initial estimate for places far away, like Seattle, were sometimes below the shaking intensity level 5 threshold to generate an immediate alert. As the slip moved northward the shaking increased, but at this point the alerts arrived too late in Seattle to give ample warning time for level-5 and higher levels of shaking in that area.

“Magnitude-9 events are challenging because the alerts are being generated as the seismic event continues to unfold,” Thompson said. “The Nisqually earthquake was a magnitude-6.8 and lasted only about six seconds. But a magnitude-9 earthquake could take more than five minutes for the whole rupture to occur.”

One solution for this uncertainty, which Hartog says is in some ways unavoidable, might be for users to lower their threshold for alerts to shaking intensity 3 or 4. Users might get alerts for some minor events, but they would also have better odds of being alerted to a magnitude-9 earthquake – even if the slipping started far away.

“For the scenario that starts in Northern California, if the threshold is set to shaking intensity-3 then everyone in the West Coast ShakeAlert region is alerted, and some people can get warning times of up to one minute,” Thompson said. “But if you use a higher intensity-5 threshold, you’ll see smaller alerting regions that will have missed alerts on the outer edges.”

In the case of a rupture starting in southern Oregon or Northern California, the entire Seattle-Tacoma region would miss alerts at the higher threshold. Apps, expected to arrive soon in Washington state, will allow users to set their own alert thresholds.

“What is the cost of taking action when it is not necessary, versus not taking action when it is necessary? It just depends on each individual situation, and that’s how people should decide how to set the threshold,” Hartog said.

Installing seismic sensors on the seafloor directly over the offshore fault would be another way to improve the alerts, especially for coastal communities.

Final results will be analyzed and shared with the full West Coast ShakeAlert community to determine whether and how to adjust the system’s warning algorithms.

“The ShakeAlert system is constantly evolving. The algorithms are being tuned, our networks are still being built out,” Hartog said. “It’s not a static system, it’s still actively being improved.”

Also involved in this work is , a research scientist at the U.S. Geological Survey and a 91̽��affiliate faculty member in Earth and space sciences. The research was funded by the U.S. Geological Survey.

For more information, contact Thompson at usherm42@uw.edu or Hartog at jrhartog@uw.edu.

Download the simulation video for a southern Oregon epicenter quake , or other earthquake simulations .

At 10:21 a.m. on Oct. 21, teacher Wade Johnson’s science class at Port Susan Middle School scrambled under their desks as part of the annual . It was Stanwood Camano School District’s first live test of its earthquake early warning system with all 13 of its schools participating in a “Drop, Cover, and Hold On” drill. The exercise was triggered by a simulated activation of the school’s earthquake early warning system, which would automatically be activated by an actual seismic event.

The school district deployed the first earthquake early warning system in 2019 at Stanwood Elementary, the first school in Washington state to connect to the system. Since then the district has added all 13 of its schools to the automated earthquake early warning system, which went live throughout Washington state in May 2021.

If seismic stations detect a significant earthquake, emergency alerts and automated smartphone messages go out to people in any affected parts of Washington, Oregon and California. The appropriate response is to do what the students did — drop, cover and hold on.

Read more:��

The National Science Foundation has funded a multi-institutional team led by Oregon State University and the 91̽�� to work on increasing resiliency among Pacific Northwest coastal communities.

The new Cascadia Coastlines and Peoples Hazards Research Hub will serve coastal communities in Northern California, Oregon and Washington. The hub’s multidisciplinary approach will span geoscience, social science, public policy and community partnerships.

The Pacific Northwest coastline is at significant risk of earthquakes from the Cascadia Subduction Zone, an offshore fault that stretches more than 600 miles from Cape Mendocino in California to southern British Columbia. The region also faces ongoing risks from coastal erosion, regional flooding and rising seas due to climate change.

The newly established Cascadia CoPes Hub, based at OSU, will increase the capacity of coastal communities to adapt through community engagement and co-production of research, and by training a new generation of coastal hazards scientists and leaders from currently underrepresented communities.

The initial award is for $7.2 million over the first two years, with the bulk split between OSU and the UW. The total award, subject to renewals, is $18.9 million over five years.

“This issue requires a regional approach,” said co-principal investigator Ann Bostrom, a 91̽��professor of public policy and governance. “This new research hub has the potential to achieve significant advances across the hazard sciences — from the understanding of governance systems, to having a four-dimensional understanding of Cascadia faults and how they work, and better understanding the changing risks of compound fluvial-coastal flooding, to new ways of engaging with communities to co-produce research that will be useful for coastal planning and decisions in our region. There are a lot of aspects built into this project that have us all excited.”

The community collaborations, engagement and outreach will focus on five areas: Humboldt County, California; greater Coos Bay, Oregon; Newport to Astoria, Oregon; Tokeland to Taholah, Washington; and from Everett to Bellingham, Washington.

“We have a lot to learn from the communities in our region, and part of the proposal is to help communities learn from each other, as well,” Bostrom said.

The Cascadia hub is part of the NSF’s newly announced , an effort to help coastal communities become more resilient in the face of mounting environmental pressures. Nearly 40% of the U.S. population lives in a coastal county. The NSF established one other large-scale hub for research and broadening participation, in New Jersey, and focused hubs in Texas, North Carolina and Virginia.

The Cascadia hub will focus on two broad areas: advancing understanding of the risks of Cascadia earthquakes and other geological hazards to coastal regions; and reducing disaster risk through assessment, planning and policymaking.

“We’re not thinking only about the possibility of one magnitude-9 earthquake; this effort is about the fabric of hazards over time,” said co-principal investigator , a 91̽��professor of Earth and space sciences and director of the Pacific Northwest Seismic Network. “The heart of this project is merging physical science and social science with a community focus in an integrated way — translating scientific discovery with actions that coastal communities can use.”

The project intentionally emphasizes incorporating traditional ecological knowledge from the region’s Native American tribes as well as local ecological knowledge from fishers, farmers and others who have personal history and experience with coastal challenges.

“We are committed to co-producing research together with coastal communities and integrating multiple perspectives about disaster risk and its management,” said , an assistant professor in UW’s Department of Environmental and Occupational Health Sciences, who is co-leading the hub’s Community Adaptive Capacity and Community Engagement and Outreach teams.

“There are many dimensions to resilience, including economics, health, engineering and more,” said principal investigator , a professor at OSU. “This research hub is a way to bring together a lot of groups with interest in coastal resilience who have not had the resources to work together on these issues.”

The research hub’s other principal investigators are , a 91̽��associate professor of Earth and space sciences who will lead efforts to quantify the timing, triggers and effects of landslide hazards on communities and on landscape evolution, and , a professor of sociology at OSU. The other institutional partners are Washington Sea Grant, Oregon Sea Grant, University of Oregon, Washington State University, Humboldt State University, the U.S. Geological Survey, the Swinomish Indian Tribal Community, Georgia Tech University and Arizona State University.

For more information, contact Bostrom at abostrom@uw.edu, Ruggiero at 541-737-1239 or peter.ruggiero@oregonstate.edu and Tobin at htobin@uw.edu. See related press releases from and .

When the Big One hits, the first thing Washington residents notice may not be the ground shaking, but their phone issuing a warning. The U.S. Geological Survey, the 91̽��-based and the Washington Emergency Management Division on Tuesday, May 4, will activate the system that sends earthquake early warnings throughout Washington state. This completes the tri-state rollout of , an automated system that gives people living in Washington, Oregon and California advance warning of incoming earthquakes.

“For the first time, advance warning of imminent earthquake shaking will be a reality in our region. Even just seconds, up to a minute of warning is enough to prepare yourself and take cover —��actions that may spare you from injury or even save your life,” said , a 91̽��professor of Earth and space sciences and director of the PNSN, which operates the seismic monitoring in Washington and Oregon.

Once the system goes live on May 4, the first signs of an earthquake above a magnitude 4.5 or 5, about when the shaking becomes noticeable indoors, will trigger an alert and a reminder to drop, cover and hold on. Warning times range from a few seconds to tens of seconds depending on your distance to the epicenter. The launch will be silent — there will be no test on May 4.

The PNSN operates a growing network of about 230 seismic stations in Washington and some 155 stations in Oregon that provide data for ShakeAlert. When four or more of these instruments detect unusual shaking, that motion is analyzed by computers, some of them on the 91̽��campus, that quickly calculate the size and location of the event.

People connected to the Wireless Emergency Alert system (the same system that produces AMBER alerts), will now get earthquake alerts for events of magnitude 5 or greater, using a similar interface. Alerts for events of magnitude 4.5 or above will be integrated into Android devices, where screens will also show the earthquake’s approximate magnitude and location. When people get an alert, they should use the brief warning to seek immediate protection, following this . No downloads are required – find out .

The ShakeAlert system, similar to existing early warning systems in Mexico and Japan, began sending alerts in California in 2019 and in Oregon in March 2021. With the addition of Washington state, the system will now issue warnings to millions more people at risk from the largest possible earthquake in the lower 48 states — a rupture of the offshore Cascadia Subduction Zone, a 700-mile fault that runs from California’s Cape Mendocino to the tip of Canada’s Vancouver Island (discovered in part through 91̽��research). The alerts will also warn of potentially damaging earthquakes that are more likely to occur sooner, on one of crustal faults in the Puget Sound region alone, or deeper slips on the underlying ocean plate. The system works by detecting the first signs of an earthquake before the slower-moving but more damaging ground-shaking waves arrive.

The PNSN began testing the ShakeAlert system with select Washington and Oregon businesses, utilities and organizations in 2015. Besides the individual alerts on phones, the system will be available for organizations or businesses to incorporate into their emergency plans — for instance, to close water valves, slow trains to prevent derailment, halt surgeries or pause sensitive equipment before the shaking starts.

“Business in the pilot program have used these alerts to close valves for water and natural gas, stop rotating equipment and alert employees. We have also partnered with Stanwood Elementary School, which has connected the system to its PA system so students can do earthquake drills that use ShakeAlert,” said PNSN communications manager Bill Steele, who has coordinated the regional test users.

Scientists at the PNSN are continuing to improve the system. About 65% of the planned seismic stations in the network are complete in Washington state. PNSN field teams will install more seismometers through late 2025 in places like the Olympic Peninsula and Eastern Washington.

“The network is successfully detecting earthquakes now, but that doesn’t mean we can’t make it even better. We’re continuing to install seismometers and improve algorithms to make the alerts faster and more reliable, to give people more warning time and lower the chance of any missed events or false alarms,” Tobin said.

Initial development of the earthquake alert system by three West Coast universities, including the UW, began a decade ago and was funded by the Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation. The buildout of the system was funded by Congress, with major grants administered by the USGS in 2015 and 2019, and completed by federal and state agencies working with a consortium of four West Coast universities: the UW; the University of Oregon; the University of California, Berkeley; and the California Institute of Technology.

The Washington system also got state funding in the 2020-21 budget. Private support for Washington’s system has also come from the M.J. Murdock Charitable Trust, Amazon, Puget Sound Energy and individual donors.

For more information, contact Tobin at htobin@uw.edu, Steele at wsteele@uw.edu and 206-601-5978, or PNSN ShakeAlert user engagement lead Gabriel Lotto at glotto@uw.edu.

See also a USGS and a Washington Emergency Management Division .

Leveraging the tectonic laboratory of the Cascadia subduction zone, the 91̽�� today announced a new effort to best understand how to study and live with the threats of earthquakes, tsunamis, volcanos, landslides and other seismic hazards. Dubbed the GeoHazards Initiative, the interdisciplinary work aims to develop and promote the adoption of early detection systems both on land and at sea to help prevent the loss of human life and property.

“The vision ultimately is for an integrated initiative that will span geohazards and their impact on society,” said , the newly named Paros Endowed Chair in Seismology and Geohazards. “A big goal of this new effort is to bring together the strengths of different pieces of the 91̽��research community to tackle all these problems in a truly novel way that can help us make progress on understanding all of those hazardous events and how to mitigate their damaging effects.”

The initiative’s starting place will be focused on sensors, both on land and at sea, that can help scientists better understand seismic events and how to detect them as they begin, and even to determine times and places where risk may be heightened.

“We need to be able to detect movement deep beneath the ground both on land and under the ocean equally, in order to take this to the next level,” Tobin said, who already is the Washington state seismologist, directs the , and is a professor in the Department of Earth & Space Sciences. “And that’s traditionally been two different realms here at the university. But really it’s all an Earth process and we need to work together.”

Tobin will initially partner with researchers in the 91̽��School of Oceanography and the 91̽��Applied Physics Lab, with hopes to bring other parts of the university in as the research progresses.

The work is fueled by a $2 million gift from Jerome “Jerry” M. Paros to fund the named chair. Additionally, 91̽��will match that gift with $2 million to be used over 20 years to launch and support the initiative.

“The 91̽��is uniquely positioned to be a leader in understanding how geohazards impact our lives,” said Paros, a leader in the field of geophysical measurements. He is the founder, president and chairman of Paroscientific, Inc., Quartz Seismic Sensors, Inc. and related companies that use the quartz crystal resonator technology he developed to measure pressure, acceleration, temperature, weight and other parameters. “We just now are beginning to have better detection systems on land and at sea. This effort knits these resources together under Harold’s direction. We couldn’t be better positioned to push this work forward, ideally protecting property and saving lives.”

Paros has supported science and education with philanthropic endowments at universities and organizations across the country. His prior contributions to the 91̽��include the endowment of the Jerome M. Paros Chair in Sensor Networks and the Cascade Sensor Network Fund. These gifts support the research, development and deployment of new instrumentation and measurement systems that will advance cross-disciplinary knowledge in the oceanic, atmospheric and Earth sciences. In addition, Paros established the Paros Fund for Brain Research at the Institute for Learning & Brain Sciences.

With the Paros Endowed Chair in Seismology and Geohazards, Tobin now has a platform from which to launch the development of new sensing systems on land and under the sea, build coalitions of public and private stakeholders in the Pacific Northwest and beyond, and engage policymakers at the state and federal levels.

The initiative will launch new research to design, build and deploy arrays of ocean sensors to detect earthquakes, tsunamis and seafloor motion, and to provide data transmission that connects onshore and offshore observations to effectively detect emerging geohazards and mitigate against disasters.

Technological options for the array could include sensors connected to cables on the seafloor, attached to both dedicated research cables and existing commercial telecom cables. Arrays could also include offshore boreholes, standalone stations on the seafloor that store their data, and mobile platforms like drones or buoys.

“Offshore sensors can help provide early warning for earthquakes and tsunamis, and help advance scientific understanding of what’s happening under the ocean in the Cascadia subduction zone,” said , the Jerome M. Paros��Endowed Chair in��Sensor Networks and professor in the School of Oceanography, who will also work on the GeoHazards Initiative.

“We already have systems on land that can provide early warnings of seismic events, but we now are developing technologies that can help us better understand earthquakes under the ocean and the tsunamis they produce,” Wilcock said.

The researchers said they plan to investigate the fault systems onshore and offshore using geophysical imaging and direct measurements for groundtruthing to gain insight into the geohazard sources and processes.

“These activities will build a strategic alliance across the university to position 91̽��as the foremost hub of subduction hazard research, positioning us to compete for emerging national and international opportunities,” Tobin said.

He said it was an honor to receive this new endowed chair in Paros’ name, a man who has personally been a driving force in the development of geophysical sensors that are in use across the world.

“I feel a responsibility to really make this initiative be effective and serve as a platform to work on these problems at a larger scale,” Tobin said. “We in Western Washington literally inhabit the subduction zone — the place where two plates meet — that is this perfect place to study all these processes from within them. And the 91̽�� has the kind of critical mass of expertise and people, and the forward-looking science and technology, to really take concrete steps to leap forward our understanding not just for Washington but for the world.”

For more information, reach Tobin at htobin@uw.edu.

The system was developed through a partnership between the 91̽�� and other West Coast universities and the U.S. Geological Survey working with state emergency managers. The system uses ground sensors across the region to detect the first signals from a rupturing earthquake and then sends that information to computers and phones, providing seconds to tens of seconds of warning of an imminent earthquake.

91̽��News sat down with Harold Tobin, professor of Earth and space sciences and director of the , to learn more.

How does it feel to be on the cusp of launching the ShakeAlert earthquake early warning system in Oregon and Washington?

The ShakeAlert earthquake early warning system has been a big and technically complicated thing to put together, so it has taken many years. It is really exciting and satisfying to see that all that effort and work by many people is coming to fruition. It’s a collaboration between the USGS, us at the PNSN at 91̽��an also our counterparts at University of Oregon, Berkeley and Caltech.

The rollout for us has been somewhat incremental, in the sense that the system is functioning well now even as we work to improve our seismic network. We’re detecting earthquakes, and alerts are being delivered to technical partners including emergency managers, utilities and schools.

But the stage of broadcasting mass alerts is really a new step, and one that brings to fruition the dream of earthquake early warning. We’re really excited about bringing this directly to the public, and taking the capability we’ve developed and actually putting it to use to increase public safety.

You’re director of the Pacific Northwest Seismic Network, which includes both Oregon and Washington. Why are the two states’ ShakeAlert systems launching at different times (and why is Washington last)?

California had the most developed network of seismometers, it has the most frequent earthquakes and the largest earthquake hazard, since it has a lot of population right along the San Andreas fault. So it made a lot of sense for California to roll it out first in late 2019.

Ultimately, ShakeAlert is one unified system for the whole West Coast. This is a collaboration between the ShakeAlert partners and state emergency management. Oregon chose the anniversary of the March 11 Tohoku earthquake and tsunami for its launch date. Washington’s Emergency Management Division is launching in May in order to have enough time to test the Wireless Emergency Alert system and prepare the public by educating people on what the ShakeAlert Earthquake Early Warning system is, how to receive alerts, and how to protect themselves when they receive an alert: drop, cover, and hold on.

How can people in��King, Pierce and Thurston counties sign up for the test taking place in late February? And how can Washingtonians sign up for the actual earthquake early warning system when it goes live in May?

Washington EMD and USGS have developed a simulated earthquake warning test message they will broadcast Feb. 25 on the Wireless Emergency Alert system, the nation’s universal alerting system. The test will evaluate how the WEA system performs for earthquake early warning in the Puget Sound area.

You have to , which is for users in Pierce, King and Thurston counties. Once ShakeAlert goes live in May, earthquake alerts will go to anyone in Washington who has WEA alerts enabled on their device.

There will also be another way that earthquake alerts will be delivered. If you have an Android phone device, Google has embedded it in the mobile operating system in late 2020. So those devices in California are getting alerts now, and we expect Android alerts will go live in Washington in May. We hope other phone operating systems will follow suit.

Washington ShakeAlert is a collaboration between the USGS, Washington Emergency Management and the PNSN. Can you explain how the three groups collaborate?

ShakeAlert is operated by the USGS in partnership with the PNSN and California seismic networks. The data that is generated to detect the earthquakes in Washington and Oregon comes from the PNSN, the seismic network operated out of the 91̽��and the University of Oregon. We are direct partners in the research and development of this system. At the UW, we operate one of three computer systems that ingest the data and issue the alert messages; the others are at UC Berkeley and Caltech. There’s a strong partnership between the PNSN and the USGS on earthquake detection and the continuing development of the system that issues the warnings. Washington Emergency Management is responsible for public safety, and so they are determining the types of public alerts that will be released, the messaging, public education and appropriate responses.

This is a great example of a partnership among all those entities. We are all working toward this same goal, of increasing earthquake awareness and public safety.

The PNSN began testing the system back in 2015 with early adopters. What have you learned from that experience?

A system like this is complicated, and will reach everyone, so we have to test it really extensively. We’re decreasing the number of false or missed alerts in our beta system. Just seeing more and more events has allowed us to improve the algorithms, to distinguish between a false alarm and a real signal, and to better pinpoint the magnitude and location of the earthquake. A typical time frame is now 2 seconds for our computers to decide on the location and magnitude of the earthquake and to generate the alert — the pace that that happens is unbelievable.

Now that the system is about to go public, how will other businesses, schools, organizations or agencies be able to incorporate these alerts into their emergency plans?

The USGS licenses partners to develop products that take the ShakeAlert message and can connect to other systems. A number of those licensed offer systems that can be adopted, such as a box that can be hooked up to a school PA system and automatically issue a prerecorded message that alerts students to drop, cover and hold on. Any business that has staff in a facility can think about how they can incorporate earthquake early warnings into their own facility. ShakeAlert messages can also trigger automated actions to pause manufacturing processes, move elevators to the next floor and open the doors, close valves on reservoirs, and initiate other loss-reduction actions.

What should someone do when they get their first “real” alert?

When someone gets an alert, the appropriate action to take is to drop, cover and hold on. It’s important to get under a protective cover. Most injuries from earthquakes in the U.S. are not from the catastrophic collapse of a building but from falling objects — lights, ceiling tiles, etc.

If you’re driving in a car, the appropriate action would be to pull over and stop the car, if possible. If you’re in a building, stay in a building. The message is really to brace yourself — drop, cover and hold on. That message, to pause and protect yourself, is key. (Washington Emergency Management has more tips .)

What about British Columbia? Will the earthquake early warning system extend across the border?

Natural Resources Canada is working in parallel to develop an earthquake early warning system. We already use data from seismometers in Canada, and we incorporate that information in our alerts — earthquake waves don’t stop at the border.

Can we expect any improvements or changes coming down the line?

Yes, we’re improving the system all the time. We are going live with public testing of this system because we know that it fundamentally works, but we’re also continuously improving the system. We have hundreds of seismic stations in place but we’re adding dozens more, so that we can optimize the network to detect earthquakes wherever they occur within the region.

We’re also continuously improving the computer algorithms that detect the raw data and decide where and how big the earthquake is. Once it goes live, there will be no pause in improving the system. We would also love to add more offshore detection systems, since offshore quakes are a challenge to detect accurately.

For me, this is an exciting example of science to action, of things that are driven by fundamental science and research in seismology that show the way to something that can do some tangible good for society — to increase public safety. It’s exciting to see that happening with the ShakeAlert system.

For more information, contact Tobin at htobin@uw.edu or Bill Steele, communications director at the Pacific Northwest Seismic Network, at wsteele@uw.edu and 206-685-5880.

The , based at the 91̽��, will host an online event on the 40th anniversary of the eruption of Mount St. Helens, featuring seismologists from the 91̽��and other institutions who can explain the events before, during and after the historic blast.

The will take place from 6:30 to 8 p.m., Monday, May 18, on the PNSN’s YouTube channel — exactly 40 years after the blast. The group will stream prerecorded talks from four speakers and then host a live Q&A of questions on the network’s . Moderator Harold Tobin, director of the PNSN and a 91̽��professor of Earth and space sciences, will select audience questions.

The presenters will review the region’s tectonics, volcanoes and volcanic hazards, and summarize how the science and monitoring has evolved over the past four decades.

, research professor emeritus of Earth and space sciences, was intimately involved with recording and interpreting the earthquake buildup to the massive eruption. His personal story of the two months leading up to the 1980 eruption will illustrate the difficulty and uncertainty of dealing with a developing natural disaster in real time.

did his doctorate at the 91̽��with Malone and is now scientist-in-charge at the U.S. Geological Survey’s Cascade Volcano Observatory. He will describe the more recent activity at Mount St. Helens and the USGS work on volcano monitoring throughout the Cascades.

, a professor of geophysics at Western Washington University whose research focuses on volcanoes and landslides, will discuss plate tectonics and the origin of the Cascade volcanoes.

, professor at the University of Oregon, will discuss the individual character of different volcanoes and volcanic hazards.

For more information on the event, contact PNSN communications director Bill Steele at wsteele@uw.edu or 206-685-5880.

Researchers at the 91̽�� share their expertise on artificial intelligence and data science in “,” an online documentary produced and released this winter by YouTube. The series narrated by Robert Downey Jr. looks at how AI could affect everything from health care to the search for extraterrestrial life.

, professor in the Paul G. Allen School of Computer Science & Engineering, is a recurring expert who offers commentary in several episodes. In 2015 Domingos published “,” a popular book about the promise of artificial intelligence.

The seventh episode, titled “,” features the UW-based . After looking at elephant poaching and new plant-based foods, the segment looks at how seismologists are collecting and processing data to warn of incoming earthquakes along the Cascadia subduction zone. (Domingos first appears in the episode , and the earthquake segment begins .)

, director of the PNSN and a professor of Earth and space sciences, strolls through downtown Seattle and discusses the challenges and prospects for long-term earthquake prediction. , research professor of Earth and space sciences, describes how the 91̽��system identifies shaking generated by seismic events, and , a field engineer and lab coordinator with the PNSN, shows off a seismic monitoring station near the Space Needle.

The series can be streamed free with advertisements, or ad-free for YouTube subscribers. Earlier episodes have been viewed millions of times.

The Pacific Northwest’s most recent large earthquake, the 2001 Nisqually earthquake near Seattle, was a magnitude 6.8, but history shows that the region could be rocked any day by a much larger event. At the American Association for the Advancement of Science’s annual meeting this week in Seattle, researchers from the 91̽�� and federal agencies will discuss the latest science on megaquakes as an emerging topic of concern.

A set of three presentations and discussions, “” will take place on Saturday, Feb. 15, at the Washington State Convention Center.

Organized by , an assistant professor of Earth and space sciences at the UW, and , a 91̽��professor of Earth and space sciences and director of the UW-based , the event will provide the latest research on seismic hazards, both along the coast and in built-up areas inland.

“We hope to inform the audience and public about what is and is not known about subduction-zone earthquakes and their effects,” Tobin said. “While the scenarios will be specific to Cascadia, the fundamental work is about investigating how fault movement launches tsunamis and under what conditions the seismic waves create ground shaking that affects buildings and other structures.”

The title references a line from the infamous 2015 New Yorker article, “,” that put Pacific Northwest megaquakes on the popular radar. Evidence from tsunamis shows that a huge earthquake occurred off the Pacific Northwest on January 26, 1700. The U.S. Geological Survey estimates a 14% chance it could occur again in the next 50 years.

The session will consider both what such an earthquake might look like, and what it could mean for buildings and other structures in Seattle — many of which were built before the region’s seismic hazards were fully understood.

, director of the Center for Tsunami Research at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, will begin the session at 3:30 p.m. with a discussion of , which is the greatest hazard to communities on the Washington and Oregon coasts. Then, , a research geophysicist at the U.S. Geological Survey and 91̽��affiliate assistant professor in Earth and space sciences, will present on .

Wirth builds on her 2017 work, as a 91̽��postdoctoral researcher, that simulated what a magnitude-9 megathrust earthquake could look like depending on where along the Cascadia subduction zone the offshore rupture starts, and how close the slipping gets to cities on land. The team has now refined its results and begun to apply the simulations to estimate infrastructure damage.

“Since we don’t have any direct observational records of the 1700 earthquake, our 3D supercomputer simulations of various possible magnitude-9 Cascadia earthquake scenarios has allowed us to quantify the range of possible ground shaking the Pacific Northwest might experience,” Wirth said.

, a 91̽��professor of civil and environmental engineering, will close with a talk focused on damage, titled: “.” He is leading the research on building response with , a 91̽��professor of civil and environmental engineering.

On Saturday, Berman will share results of a published this month in the Journal of Structural Engineering that considers how 32 midrise to tall building types, ranging from 4 to 40 stories, would fare in 30 different simulated Cascadia magnitude-9 earthquakes. The study led by , a 91̽��postdoctoral researcher, finds that the current building codes underestimate how much shaking would occur as the loose soil in the Seattle basin amplifies the frequency of waves generated by offshore earthquakes, with strong shaking projected to last for almost two minutes.

“The Cascadia subduction zone ground motions have longer duration and different frequency content than the ground motions experienced in California, which has formed the basis for most U.S. building codes,” Berman said. “The impact of those differences on structural performance was a big unknown prior to this research.”

Each presentation will also include questions from those attending the AAAS annual meeting.

“We are hoping that our session communicates the latest in subduction-zone research, but we also look forward to opening up a dialog between panelists and the audience,” Duvall said. “The AAAS format is special that way, that it offers a real chance for two-way communication.”

The PNSN is responsible for monitoring earthquakes and volcanoes in Washington and Oregon. It is a partnership between the 91̽��, the University of Oregon and the USGS. The support for the PNSN is among the new announced today by the USGS.

The first year’s funding of $5.4 million to the PNSN begins this month. The 91̽��will receive about $3.75 million in direct support of its PNSN activities and $1.66 million will support the PNSN team at the University of Oregon. The second-year funding, of an additional $5 million, is contingent on approval by Congress and will be similarly shared.

“This investment in the PNSN represents a major increase in federal support for earthquake monitoring in the Cascadia region,” said , director of the PNSN and professor in the UW’s Department of Earth and Space Sciences. “At the end of the two years of funding we anticipate having essentially doubled the number of seismic stations across our whole region that contribute to real-time earthquake early warning. This would allow for full public alerts of any potentially damaging earthquakes, across our entire region of Washington and Oregon, by the end of the two-year period.”

This new award will allow for installation of 104 new seismic stations in Washington state and 44 in Oregon, during the two-year period. It will also support improved, more-sophisticated detection of earthquakes as they begin, and new efforts to engage potential users of the warnings.

ShakeAlert’s network of instruments detect the first, less damaging waves from a major earthquake close to where the earthquake begins. The system then issues alerts for the estimated size and location of the earthquake, providing seconds or minutes of warning before the more damaging ground shaking begins – enough for someone to pull off the road, stop a surgery, or find a safe place to take shelter.

In the Pacific Northwest’s pilot phase of the system, early adopters in the region have developed pilot projects with guidance and support from the PNSN and USGS, and have received ShakeAlert warning messages for the past two years. These warnings are currently used to trigger loss-reduction measures at critical facilities — such as turning off water valves in public utility districts — before dangerous shaking would arrive.

The additional funding will support the development of new pilot projects in schools, businesses, communities and critical infrastructure facilities in preparation for the eventual goal of open alerts to the general public, as in the Los Angeles region. The improvements to PNSN’s network supported by this funding will meet the USGS’ recommended station-density standard for public alerting in almost all areas of Washington and Oregon.

“It will enable us to rapidly build out our network to produce faster and more accurate alerts for Cascadia Region earthquakes,” Tobin said.

The funding will also support ongoing research to integrate GPS data into ShakeAlert, which will allow quicker estimates of the magnitude of offshore Cascadia Subduction Zone earthquakes as they unfold. The 91̽��is sharing its research in this area with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and NASA in the hope of improving tsunami-warning capabilities. The 91̽��is working with Central Washington University, also supported by USGS, to receive near-real-time GPS data from across Washington and Oregon that will be integrated into future releases of ShakeAlert.

The regional ShakeAlert effort began in 2011, when the 91̽��joined the University of California, Berkeley and California Institute of Technology as a primary ShakeAlert center in the developing a West Coast warning system. The Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation awarded $2 million to each university to kick-start ShakeAlert from a research project to an operational system. With support from Congress, the USGS ramped up support for ShakeAlert as the foundation’s seed funding expired.

Additional support for PNSN operations comes from the U.S. Department of Energy and the states Oregon and Washington. The Washington legislature, in its current biennium budget, allocated $1.24 million over two years for additional enhancements to the ShakeAlert network.

For more information, contact Tobin at htobin@uw.edu or 206-543-6790 and PNSN communications director Bill Steele at wsteele@uw.edu or 206-685-5880. Note: Tobin is available by phone Aug. 19 and will be back in Seattle Aug. 20.