Older adults throughout Washington are increasingly isolated during the COVID-19 pandemic, challenged by the even greater reliance on technology and often neglecting chronic health conditions, according to new research from the 91探花.

And though senior-services agencies are adapting and innovating to meet the needs, researchers say a lack of consistent funding, coupled with the general uncertainty of the pandemic, could destabilize the care system for the state鈥檚 older adults.

鈥淭he web of services in the aging network is so critical and during the pandemic a lot of nonprofits are struggling. But the people they serve are at particular risk, because we already had a growing crisis of isolation among older adults,鈥� said , assistant professor of social work at the 91探花and the study鈥檚 lead author.

The , funded by a 91探花Population Health Initiative grant, is the result of interviews with leaders of nearly four dozen organizations around the state during July and August 鈥� just as COVID-19 cases spiked, many lockdown restrictions remained in place, and the social and physical effects of the first few months of quarantines became apparent.

According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, eight in 10 deaths from COVID-19 occur in people ages 65 and older. Berridge and her team, all 91探花faculty and doctoral students who study aging from health and policy-related fields, wanted to examine how Washington鈥檚 older adults were faring through the lens of the agencies that serve them, so as to inform future policy and budget decisions around social services.

Washington is home to an estimated 1.7 million people over age 60, and a variety of public and private entities that serve them, from regional Area Agencies on Aging to smaller community-level organizations and senior centers that offer meals, case management and social activities. 91探花researchers sought a geographically and demographically diverse sampling of organizations in order to get a broad scope of the needs and how they鈥檙e being addressed.

Among the findings:

• The COVID-19 pandemic has increased social isolation among older adults, primarily due to their higher susceptibility to the disease and the restrictions that encourage them to stay put, with few, if any visitors.
• Not going out also may mean not going to the doctor, affecting physical health. Agency representatives report new or worsening health conditions among older adults.
• Many communities 鈥� low-income older adults; Black, Indigenous and people of color; those with limited English proficiency; and those experiencing homelessness 鈥� are at risk of being overlooked and underserved.
• With so many of life鈥檚 routines moved online during the pandemic 鈥� including medical appointments 鈥� the 鈥渄igital divide,鈥� or lack of Internet access or devices such as phones and laptops, has widened among older adults. And many may not have the resources, or ability or interest to learn, especially among those with dementia or sensory loss.

鈥淭he digital divide has always been there. It just matters so much more now, because everything depends on being online,鈥� Berridge said.

The agencies, in turn, are struggling mainly due to higher costs, falling revenues and an uncertain future. Not every service can be seamlessly transitioned to remote operations; several organizations reported laying off staff, while the volunteer corps has shrunk due to quarantine restrictions and infection risks. Many organizations realized they needed to acquire more resources quickly, whether additional PPE for employees or refrigerators to store meals for delivery. Agencies and their clients in rural areas have been particularly vulnerable to resource shortages and technology gaps.

At the same time, the nature and purpose of these organizations 鈥� knowing and serving their clients 鈥� has been their greatest strength, Berridge said. The sudden shift to remote operations propelled many agencies to collaborate with local businesses or other organizations and come up with creative ways to try to meet the need. Popular innovations included meal delivery in partnership with restaurants and with transit agencies and offering activities such as games and mindfulness exercises over Zoom, Berridge said.

Telemedicine appointments, for example, are helpful to reach isolated seniors but are limited in the scope of conditions that can be managed.

“Telemedicine is a great option for some, but there are certain conditions that cannot be evaluated adequately over a video visit,” said study co-author , an assistant professor of neurology in the 91探花School of Medicine.

But sustaining such innovations indefinitely, while meeting the health needs of the growing population of older adults, will require budgetary and policy commitments to the state鈥檚 aging network, Berridge said. With technology alone, communities need expanded WiFi access and distribution of devices and the means to instruct older adults in how to use laptops, tablets, phones and apps.

By 2030, in a majority of Washington counties. And while the state is recognized as a leader in elder care, inconsistent funding and the potential impact on health could jeopardize its aging social and health care services sectors鈥� ability to meet the growing need.

鈥淔unding stability is huge. Many of these organizations operate on a shoestring,鈥� Berridge said. 鈥淗aving the funds, knowing they鈥檙e going to be secure, would allow them to maintain their services and to act in more permanent, innovative ways.鈥�

Other co-authors of the study were of the Department of Health Services, of the School of Social Work, and and of the Evans School of Public Policy and Governance.

For more information, contact Berridge at clarawb@uw.edu.

A novelist’s thoughts on storytelling, a geologist’s soil restoration strategy, an environmentalist’s memoir, a celebration of Latino music influences, a poet’s meditations on her changing city 鈥�

Yes, and a best-selling author’s latest work, a podcast reborn as a book, a collaboration of world-class violists and even tales of brave Icelandic seawomen 鈥� at this festive time of year, 91探花 faculty creations can make great gifts for the Dawg on your shopping list.

Here鈥檚 a quick look at some gift-worthy books and music created by 91探花talents in the last year or so 鈥� and a reminder of some perennial favorites.

Charles Johnson, “.” Johnson, National Book Award-winning author of “” and longtime professor of English, discusses his art in a book stemming from a year of interviews. “There is winning sanity here,” the New York Times wrote: “Johnson wants his students to be ‘raconteurs always ready to tell an engaging tale,’ not self-preoccupied neurotics.” Published by .

Marisol Berr铆os-Miranda, Shannon Dudley and Michelle Habell-Pall谩n, ““ An extraordinary exhibit at the Smithsonian and Seattle’s Experience Music Project (now Museum of Pop Culture) comes to life as a book, detailing Latino influence on American popular music from salsa to punk, Chicano rock to the Miami sound. Berrios-Miranda is an affiliate associate professor of ethnomusicology, Dudley an associate professor of music and Habell-Pall谩n an associate professor in the Department of Gender, Women and Sexuality Studies. It’s a dual-language volume 鈥� English on the right side, Spanish on the left. And as a bonus the authors have created an American Sabor on iTunes and Spotify; the book flags specific songs with a playlist icon. Published by 91探花 Press.

David R. Montgomery, “.” Montgomery, a professor of Earth and space sciences, won praise for his popular 2007 book “.” Several books later he returned in 2017 with this view of environmental restoration based on three ideas 鈥� “ditch the plow, cover up, grow diversity.” said Montgomery’s well-expressed views “will convince readers that soil health should not remain an under-the-radar issue and that we all benefit from embracing a new philosophy of farming.” Published by .

Margaret Willson, Willson is an affiliate associate professor of anthropology and the Canadian Studies Arctic Program. In her years working as a deckhand she came across historic accounts of a woman sea captain known for reading the weather, hauling in large catches and never losing a crew member in 60 years of fishing. “And yet people in Iceland told me there had been few seawomen in their past, and few in their present,” she said. “I found this strange in a country of such purported gender equality. This curiosity led to the research and all that came from it.” Published by .

Estella Leopold, “.” Leopold is professor emeritus of biology and the youngest daughter of , who wrote the 1949 classic of early environmentalism, “.” She returns to scenes of her Wisconsin childhood in this follow-up, describing her life on the land where her father practiced his revolutionary conservation philosophy. Published by .

David Shields, “.” Shields is a professor of English and the best-selling author of many books, starting with his 1984 novel “.” In 2017 he brought out this collection of essays that the New York Times called “a triumphantly humane book” and him “our elusive, humorous ironist, something like a 21^st century Socrates.” The paper’s praise continued: “He is a master stylist 鈥� and has been for a long time, on the evidence of these pieces from throughout his career. . . All good writers make us feel less alone. But Shields makes us feel better.” Published by .

Joseph Janes, “.” The year 2017 saw Janes’ popular podcast “” become a book under a slightly different title. Janes is an associate professor in the Information School who writes here about the origin and often evolving meaning of historical documents, both famous and less known. Some of his favorite “documents” are Sen. Joseph McCarthy’s fictional list of communists, the Fannie Farmer Cookbook and the backstory to what’s called the Rosie the Riveter poster. Published by .

Frances McCue, Well-known Seattle poet, teacher and self-described “arts instigator,” McCue is a senior lecturer in English. She was a co-founder of Hugo House, a place for writers, and served as its director for 10 years. Those experiences fuel this book of poems about the changing nature of the city. “This is Seattle. A place to love whatever’s left,” she writes. Published by .

Scott L. Montgomery, “.” Scientific research that doesn鈥檛 get communicated effectively to the public may as well not have happened at all, says geoscientist Montgomery in this second volume of a popular 2001 book. A prolific writer, Montgomery is a lecturer in the Jackson School of International Studies. “Communicating is the doing of science,” he adds. “Publication and public speaking are how scientific work gains a presence, a shared reality in the world.鈥澛� Published by .

Odai Johnson, “.” The true cultural tipping point in the run-up to the American Revolution, writes Johnson, a professor in the School of Drama, might not have been the Boston Tea Party or even the First Continental Congress. Rather, he suggests, it was Congress’ 1774 decision to close the British American theaters 鈥� a small act but “a hard shot across the bow of British culture.” Published by .

Here are some recordings from 2017 involving faculty in the 91探花School of Music:

Melia Watras, “.” Music professor Watras offers a collaboration from of world-class violists performing and sharing their own compositions with each other. Her own playing has been described in the press as “staggeringly virtuosic.” Richard Karpen, School of Music director, is among several guests. The title comes from the number of strings on the instruments used: two violas, one violin, and the 14-string viola d’amore. .

Cuong Vu 4-Tet, “.” A live collaboration between Vu, 91探花Jazz Studies chair, and renowned jazz guitarist Bill Frisell, who is an affiliate professor with the School of Music. Recorded in 2016 at Meany Theater, Vu and Frisell were joined by artists in residence Ted Poor on drums and Luke Bergman on bass. Released on .

Craig Sheppard, “.” Sheppard, longtime professor of music and a world-class pianist, plays sonatas and mazurkas by Frederic Chopin recorded live at Meany Theater in February 2017. The Seattle Times said of an earlier Chopin concert of Sheppard’s that his playing featured “exquisite details 鈥� it was playing that revealed layer after layer of music in each piece, as if one were faceting a gemstone. Released on .

Here are some other notable recent UW-authored books:

• Research on poverty and the American suburbs in “,” by Scott Allard, professor in the Evan School of Public Policy & Governance.
• Literature meets science to contemplate the geologic epoch of humans in “,” co-edited by Jesse Oak Taylor, associate professor of English.
• A popular science exploration of machine learning and the algorithms that help run our lives in “,” by Pedro Domingos, professor of computer science and engineering.
• A close look at four of America’s electoral adventures in “” by Margaret O’Mara, professor of history.
• A fully revised second edition of Earth and space sciences professor Darrel Cowan’s popular 1984 book, “.” This 378-page paperback is filled with details about Washington state geology.
• The story of a city’s transition from the Ottoman Empire to Greece in “” by Devin Naar, professor of history and Jewish studies.
• A city that “thinks like a planet” is one both resilient to and ready for the future that the changing Earth will bring, says Marina Alberti, professor in the College of Built Environments in “.
• Todd London, professor and director of the School of Drama, follows the professional theater experiences of 15 actors from the 1995 class of Harvard’s American Repertory Theater in “.”
• Dr. Stephen Helgerson, a 91探花School of Public Health alumnus and physician in preventive medicine for four decades, uses the novella form to tell of the influenza epidemic’s arrival in his state in “.”
• On the 500^th anniversary of the Protestant Reformation, an exploration of faith that results in the common good in 鈥�,鈥� co-authored by Steve Pfaff, professor of sociology.
• Calm down from holiday 鈥� and tech-induced stresses 鈥� by thinking mindfully with “” by communication professor David Levy.

Finally, still-popular and pertinent books from a few years back include the second edition of “” by Jeffrey Ochsner, professor of architecture; “” by Randlett with Frances McCue; “” by Cliff Mass, professor of atmospheric sciences; and the ever-popular “” by Bill Holm, professor emeritus of art history. All of these were published by , which has many other great titles.

is a professor in the Evans School of Public Policy & Governance and the author of the 2017 book “,” published by the Russell Sage Foundation.

One reviewer wrote that in addition to “innovative economic analysis,” the book also “represents a deeply moral call to update our thinking about vulnerable people across America and rethink outdated assumptions about how to assist them.” Allard answered a few questions about the book.

How did you come to write this book?

Just before the Great Recession, I was finishing the initial manuscript for my first book, “,” which was about the spatial mismatches between the location of poverty in cities and the social service organizations that provide help to the poor.

While writing, I visited a food pantry outside of Los Angeles that had reported large caseload increases in the previous years. Driving to the interview, I found myself entering a fairly exclusive suburban area. I wondered if I had the wrong address, but continued on and found the pantry鈥檚 executive director waiting for me near the front door. We talked about how caseloads had increased by at least 10 percent each month for the previous year. This was clearly a community in need. I found similar examples in other parts of the same suburban region. As an urban poverty researcher, I found myself puzzling over what to make of these findings.

Around this time, I began participating in conversations at the , where I am a nonresident senior fellow, about shifts in the geography of poverty within metro areas. A by my colleagues Alan Berube and Elizabeth Kneebone at Brookings documented that the suburban poor outnumbered the urban poor for the first time in modern history. Although some of this increase was due to the sluggish economy of the early 2000s, it was clear that a major demographic change had occurred, with relatively little notice, right under our noses.

With Brookings’ support, I co-authored a report in 2010 titled 鈥溾�� which drew on interviews with about 100 suburban nonprofits. The report highlighted numerous challenges for suburban safety nets, particularly the lack of program funding and the political obstacles to responding to rising poverty.

The book project expands on this 2010 Brookings report by developing a larger argument about the intersectionality of place, poverty and race in the U.S. today. In addition to a deeper examination of poverty trends across cities and suburbs, 鈥淧laces in Need鈥� also provides a more thorough examination of how public assistance and social service programs have responded to the changing geography of poverty.

Would you briefly describe your methods?

This book draws on a number of different types of data to tell a complete story about the changing geography of poverty and its consequences for the safety net. The narrative tells a national story, but also drills down into the experiences of three metro areas: Chicago, Los Angeles and Washington, DC.

The first section of the book examines changes in poverty across cities and suburbs using census tract data from 1990 to 2014. The second half analyzes administrative data from key safety net programs and in-depth interviews with roughly 100 suburban human service executives to highlight which portions of the safety net respond well to the shifting geography of poverty documented at the start of the book. Throughout I use examples from the three metro study sites to provide texture to the argument and analysis.

You write that the rise of suburban poverty should not only challenge the popular discourse around place and poverty, but also change how poverty research is conducted. How do you feel poverty research needs to change?

Questions about poverty and inequality being posed in urban contexts remain critical, but alongside these lines of inquiry should be a set of new questions that focus on poverty problems in suburbs and across metropolitan regions. For example, existing research underscores the impact of living in high-poverty isolated urban and rural communities, but more mixed-methods research should explore issues of segregation, exclusion, and isolation among the suburban poor.

The 2016 presidential campaign brought references to high poverty in America’s inner cities. What are the dangers of viewing poverty as a mainly urban phenomenon?

We can trace the links between poverty and urban settings back to the , where national debate explicitly connected poverty to urban places. Popular understandings that poverty is an urban problem in the 50 years that followed has shaped our perceptions of how we should address poverty problems.

Rhetoric in the recent presidential campaign only further reinforced these misperceptions. Not only do we expect poverty to be located in cities, but we also expect that much of our public and private capacity to provide assistance to the poor should be located in cities. Misconceptions that poverty is an urban problem lowers expectations that suburban communities should commit resources to the fight against poverty.

You write of the “othering” of poverty. Would you explain a bit what that is?

When society links poverty to cities, it also often implicitly or explicitly links poverty to race and ethnic minorities living in cities. Beliefs that poverty is experienced mostly by urban black and Hispanic residents powerfully influence how society thinks about antipoverty solutions by defining who is 鈥渄eserving鈥� and who is not. Such attitudes directly translate into lower support for more generous or accessible antipoverty assistance, and greater support for more punitive policies.

The spatial discourse around poverty, as I call it, may tie into competitive assessments by whites about public and private resource allocation between a deserving 鈥渦s鈥� versus an undeserving 鈥渢hem.鈥�

In the end, “Places in Need” argues that the familiar discourse around race, place, and poverty undermines support for the antipoverty safety net by distancing certain types of communities from responsibility to address need and by anchoring policy debate to racial stereotypes.

You say also that federal budget proposals and health care legislation now being considered in Congress “will undermine some of the most critical, responsive parts of the safety net.” Would you elaborate?

Current budget proposals from Congress seek funding cuts for most federal antipoverty programs and conversions for others. Of particular concern are proposed cuts to the Supplemental Nutritional Assistance Program, or , and Medicaid, which help millions of Americans and do so fairly consistently across different types of geographic locations. Cuts to the safety net currently under debate in Washington, D.C., would lead to millions of Americans falling into poverty and would reverse the economic gains many low-income households have made following the Great Recession. Moreover, these cuts would hamper the ability of programs to be responsive to increases in poverty that may occur during the next economic downturn.

.'s Scott Allard talks about the geography of w/ on 鈥�

— 91探花News (@uwnews)

What measures do you suggest from government and social services to help reduce suburban poverty?

First, it is critical to maintain federal commitments to anti-poverty programs like food stamps (now called SNAP) or the Earned Income Tax Credit, which have been proven effective at reducing poverty. Increasing federal funds for social service programs targeted in underserved areas is critical as well.

It also is important to find ways to cultivate a new generation of local leaders and nonprofit organizations capable of tackling poverty challenges in suburbs. Government and philanthropy must find pathways to building collaborations between suburbs and cities that begin to scale up regional solutions to the needs of low-income Americans. Ultimately, suburbs and cities have a shared interest in addressing poverty in all places.

You do note a few positive post-Great Recession economic trends, yet you believe the changing geography of poverty will persist. Why is this?

There has been some very good economic news in the last year 鈥� unemployment remains at very low levels, employment has returned to pre-Great Recession levels, and poverty has finally begun to fall.

But there are signs of caution as we approach the end of the current recovery. The number of persons in poverty in metropolitan America remains well above pre-recession levels. Many working-age adults remain out of the labor force, and the percentage of the population with a job still remains well below pre-recession levels as a result. The labor force participation and unemployment rates for adults with a high school degree or less still have not returned to pre-recession levels. Levels of income inequality remain unchanged. There continue to be too few good-paying jobs that do not require advanced education or training than in past decades.

What can people do individually to help ease suburban poverty?

In addition to supporting public policies and elected leaders committed to a strong safety net that can help families in times of need, we must strengthen our private commitments to charity and nonprofits that provide critical help to low-income households. When I speak about the book, I encourage people to look for a local nonprofit and make a new donation or find time to volunteer. There鈥檚 lots we can do in our communities to make a difference.

What is next in your work?

Right now, I am working on several projects examining food insecurity and hunger in America. We need to better understand why food insecurity has increased and how we can find solutions to improve food outcomes. I鈥檓 also leading a national network of scholars exploring emerging issues of place and poverty in the U.S. Finally, I am starting a number of projects that use administrative data to generate insight into how we can craft safety net programs to better serve families and children.

My hope is this continued research will yield new insights into policies and programs that can best reduce poverty and help low-income families grab the next rung on the ladder.

###

For more information about Allard and his work, contact him at 206-221-4872 or sallard@uw.edu. Follow him on Twitter at @scottallard.

Press coverage for Scott Allard’s “Places in Need”:

• Q and A with , July 14, 2017
• Article in , July 6, 2017
• Article in , July 5, 2017
• Q and A with , June 26, 2017
• Article in , June 22, 2017
• Article in , June 22, 2017

The lot of Seattle’s lowest-paid workers improved following the city’s minimum wage increase to $11 in 2015, but that was more due to the robust regional economy than the wage hike itself, according to a research team at the 91探花’s .

Although the ordinance appears to have boosted wages for the city’s lowest-paid workers, the benefits of the increase may have been partly offset by fewer hours worked per person and slightly less overall employment, the research team found. Estimated income gains for the average worker were modest 鈥� on the order of a few dollars a week 鈥� and sensitive to methodological choices.

The City of Seattle passed its in June of 2014, and that December commissioned the 91探花team to conduct a five-year study of the law’s impacts. The ongoing research is led by professors and with , associate professor in the 91探花, and other co-authors from the Evans School, the and the Washington Employment Security Department.

The team presented its in an update to the council this morning (July 25).

The ordinance took effect April 1, 2015, raising the minimum hourly wage from $9.47 to $11. Under the law, businesses with fewer than 500 employees are scheduled to reach the $15 an hour wage in 2021. Employers with 500 or more employees, either in Seattle or nationally, will reach that level in three years, or 2017.

The challenge of this report, Vigdor said, was to isolate the effects of the wage increase ordinance from all other concurrent economic factors, chiefly the surging regional economy. This enables the researchers to compare Seattle to what it might look like today had the minimum wage ordinance never happened 鈥� knowing, too, that the strong economy was slowly pushing wages up regardless of the ordinance.

For their research, the team used employment, hours and earnings records from the Washington Employment Security Division going back to 2005 to create a model of how the local labor market works. They also viewed data on other nearby regions that did not increase their minimum wage, to better understand how rising property values, expanding tech employment and even the weather might have influenced what the team observed in the city itself.

The research sought to answer two questions: What has happened to Seattle’s labor market since passage of the minimum wage ordinance? And more crucially, what has been the effect of that ordinance on the labor market?

The first question involves simple comparisons of yesterday with today. But, Vigor said, “To imagine what a higher minimum wage might accomplish in a region not enjoying a significant economic boom, or what might happen in Seattle next year if the boom should wear off, the second question is the only one that matters.”

The researchers found that:

• Seattle’s lowest-paid workers saw larger-than-usual paychecks in late 2015, but at most, only 25 percent of the observed income gains 鈥� a few dollars a week 鈥� can be attributed to the higher wage.

• Businesses relying heavily on low-wage staff showed signs of cutting back, though they too benefited from the strong economy. They added jobs at about the same rate as businesses outside the city, but employees’ working hours in the city lagged by an average of about one hour per employee per week.

• Even amid a relative boom, Seattle’s lowest-wage earners show signs of “lagging behind” a control group drawn from other parts of the state. The employment rate was down about 1 percentage point for workers who earned less than $11 an hour in mid-2014; their average hours declined, and the proportion switching from jobs in the city to elsewhere ticked upward by 2 to 3 percent.

“Our report indicates that Seattle’s track record after increasing the minimum wage is neither as negative as some had feared nor as positive as some had hoped,” Vigdor said. “While the vibrant local economy is boosting employment and incomes up and down the economic ladder, the positive effects of a higher minimum wage are being at least partly offset by cutbacks in hours.”

The researchers cautioned, however, that their findings are statistical averages that could mask distinctions among different types of workers. The findings address only the short-run impact of Seattle’s wage hike to $11 an hour and don’t reflect the full range of experiences for thousands of individual workers in the Seattle economy.

Next, the research team plans to incorporate more detailed information about workers by linking employment records to other state databases. This will provide the capacity to determine, for instance, whether the workers benefiting most from higher minimum wages are more likely to be living in poverty.

Other coming work will include:

• Extending the analysis to Seattle’s second wage increase, in April 2016, when the ordinance began distinguishing between businesses of different sizes
• Collecting additional survey information from Seattle businesses and conducting more interviews with a sample of workers tracked since early 2015.

The team expects to make its next report to the city in September; that report will focus on how the minimum wage hike has impacted Seattle nonprofit organizations.

91探花co-investigators on the ongoing study are of the UW鈥檚 and , and of the Evans School. Other co-investigators are Scott Bailey and Anneliese Vance-Sherman of the state employment security department.

The research was funded in part by the Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development grant to the UW鈥檚 . Funding also was provided by the Laura and John Arnold Foundation, the Russell Sage Foundation and the City of Seattle.

###

For more information, contact the research team at mwage@uw.edu or J. Paul Blake, Evans School director of media and external relations, at 206-543-3958 or jpblake@uw.edu.

Grant # R24 HD042828

But a year after the law’s April 2015 implementation, the study indicates such increases don’t seem to be happening.

The interdisciplinary team, centered in the surveyed employers and workers and scanned area commodity and service prices. The team’s report found “little or no evidence” of price increases in Seattle relative to other areas, its report states.

The City of Seattle’s was adopted in June of 2014, and began taking effect on April 1, 2015. Under the law, businesses with fewer than 500 employees will reach the $15 an hour wage in seven years, or 2021. Employers with 500 or more employees (either in Seattle or nationally) will reach that level in three years.

When approving the ordinance, the Seattle City Council also commissioned a thorough study of the law’s impacts, and sealed a contract with the 91探花in December 2014. The study is led by Evans School professors and with , associate professor in the 91探花, and other co-authors from the Evans School and the . Two economists from the Washington Employment Security Department are also on the team.

The researchers released April 18 in a presentation to the Seattle City Council.

The study, conducted between January and May 2015, surveyed 567 randomly selected Seattle employers as well as 55 workers, asking their awareness of and feelings about its expected and actual effects, to establish a baseline for that information.

Responses indicate that nearly all employers knew about the new law, though many were uncertain about its implementation. Many employers expressed hope the higher wages will improve both worker morale and boost job applications, though they also doubt it will improve individual employee productivity among minimum wage workers.

Sixty-two percent of employers said they expected to raise prices of goods and services to accommodate the higher wages brought by the law. Ten percent of the employers believed incorrectly that the ordinance would force their business to move to a $15 wage immediately upon implementation.

But in an analysis of area prices over time, done through a combination of “web scraping” and in-person visits to grocery stores, restaurants and other retail locations, such price increases were not in evidence.

“Our preliminary analysis of grocery, retail and rent prices has found little or no evidence of price increases in Seattle relative to the surrounding area,” the team concluded.

Workers, for their part 鈥� many of whom reported struggling to make ends meet despite community and government assistance 鈥� responded to the survey wondering doubtfully if the wage increases would truly improve their financial situation. Most knew about the law but many were uncertain of details, the study found.

“Today’s report documents both the hopes and fears that workers and business managers expressed as Seattle began its initiative to raise the minimum wage,” said Vigdor. “Business owners are hopeful that small changes to their operation 鈥� such as small price increases 鈥� will keep them in the black.

“Workers are hopeful about the promise of greater income, but harbor few illusions about the potential for price increases, or reductions in government benefits, to eat away at these gains.”

The team’s subsequent study on the Seattle minimum wage law will include:

• A second round of worker interviews this spring to learn more about its effects on work and family life, and more in spring of 2017 if funding allows.
• Analysis this spring of employment security data on employment, hours, and earnings for a report to be released this summer
• Another full survey of employers and workers in 2017.
• A brief follow-up survey of employers this summer to depict changes over time.
• Continued study of prices, expanding to the areas outside Seattle.
• A study this fall on the impact of the ordinance on Seattle nonprofits, through surveys and interviews.

“From its inception, this study has sought to do more than track employment figures,” Vigdor said. “Our team hopes to develop a full understanding of how businesses and nonprofits change their practices to accommodate higher wages, and of whether a higher minimum wage meaningfully transforms lives. Today’s report showcases that broader approach.”

Vigdor and Long’s co-investigators on the Seattle Minimum Wage Study are of the UW’s and , and of the Evans School. Other co-investigators are Scott Bailey and Anneliese Vance-Sherman of the state employment security department.

The research was funded in part by the Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development grant to the UW’s . Funding also was provided by the Laura and John Arnold Foundation, the Russell Sage Foundation and the City of Seattle.

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For more information, contact the research team at mwage@uw.edu or J. Paul Blake, Evans School director of media and external relations, at 206-543-3958 or jpblake@uw.edu.

Grant # R24 HD042828

Faculty from the 91探花’s schools of public affairs, public health and social work are teaming up for , a five-year research project to learn that and more.

An passed by the Seattle City Council in June 2014 mandates a citywide minimum wage increase to $11 an hour on April 1 that will grow to $15 an hour by the year 2022. The council also resolved to evaluate the impact of that ordinance and is contracting with 91探花researchers and others for that work.

, professor in the , will be principal investigator on the project along with , also of the Evans School, and of the .

91探花co-investigators are , and of the Evans School and of the . Other co-investigators are Scott Bailey and Anneliese Vance-Sherman of the Washington Employment Security Department.

“Our goal is to make this a data-driven conversation about what is the good that is being done, what is the harm that is being done, and are we happy with that tradeoff,” Vigdor in a recent interview.

The study will be a multifaceted evaluation of the wage ordinance’s effects on workers, employers and the local economy. Its several components will include an employer survey and in-depth study of the effect on families as well as on regional pricing and administrative and census data.

The researchers listed fundamental questions about the higher minimum wage to be investigated in the research:

• What is its impact on workers, their families, employers and the community?
• Does it impact employment and earnings among low-wage workers?
• Does it affect overall employment, business longevity or the mix of firms that do business in Seattle?
• How does it affect consumer prices?
• Does it improve quality of life measures, including health, nutrition and daily family life?
• Does it affect public assistance program eligibility and benefits received?
• Do nonprofit service organizations respond to higher wages by cutting back on services to vulnerable families?
• How do low-income families and employers experience the implementation of the policy and how do they perceive its benefits and costs?
• How do businesses adapt to higher labor costs?

The project will build on by Plotnick, Long and , also of the Evans School, on who would be affected by the wage increase. That was released in March 2014, prior to the passage of the ordinance.

The researchers will provide the city of Seattle regular updates on their study as the wage increases are implemented.

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For general inquiries about the Seattle Minimum Wage Study, write mwage@uw.edu. Principal investigator Vigdor is at 206-616-4436 or jvigdor@uw.edu; Long at 206-543-3787 or marklong@uw.edu; Romich at romich@uw.edu or 206-616-6121.