Stephen O’Connor – 91̽»¨News /news Tue, 12 May 2015 17:20:46 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=6.9.4 Housing market strong, affordability issues linger in first quarter of 2015 /news/2015/05/12/housing-market-strong-affordability-issues-linger-in-first-quarter-of-2015/ Tue, 12 May 2015 17:20:46 +0000 /news/?p=36908 Washington state’s housing market was strong in the first quarter of 2015, with both sales and new building permits up compared with a year ago and the market remaining largely affordable, according to the at the 91̽»¨.

The statewide median sales price for a single family home rose to $270,600 in the first quarter, 8.5 percent higher than the same time in 2014, though still significantly lower than the all-time high of $316,700 in the second quarter of 2007.

Similarly, the seasonally adjusted annual rate of existing home sales rose 4.4 percent from the first quarter of 2014 — from 81,450 to 85,060. This means that if the quarter’s pace continued unchanged for a year, that number of homes would be sold. Although robust, the current annual rate of sales is 40 percent below the high witnessed in 2003.

Home prices rose in 15 of the state’s 17 metropolitan counties, with Clark and Walla Walla Counties being the exceptions. Cowlitz County recorded the highest relative increase of 16.2 percent, followed by Snohomish County at 11.2 percent. Median prices were lower than a year earlier in only six counties, with prices in Ferry County in northeast Washington again coming in 40 percent below last year.

Given the variety of location and market diversity in the state, median housing prices are highly variable, ranging from $70,000 in Ferry and Lincoln counties to $508,300 in San Juan County (King County has the second highest median values at $450,000).

Housing affordability for all buyers statewide continued to rise in the first quarter. That index — where 100 means a middle-income family can just qualify for a median-priced home, given a 20 percent down payment and a 30-year fixed mortgage rate at prevailing rates — was 152, up from 148.9 the fourth quarter of 2014. This metric suggests that, given the same down payment and mortgage, a middle-income family can afford a home selling for 52 percent above the median.

Statewide, the first-time buyer index showed an increase of 2.1 points, ending the quarter at 85.9. This index assumes a less expensive home, lower down payment and lower income. This means that a household earning 70 percent of the median household income — as may be true of first-time buyers — had only 85.9 percent of the income required to purchase a typical starter home statewide.

Though up in general, housing affordability varied widely across the state. The least affordable county continues to be San Juan, with Lincoln County the most affordable. For first-time buyers in metropolitan areas, Benton County was again the most affordable and King County continued to be the least affordable. All counties east of the Cascades except Kittitas County were affordable to first-time home buyers, while five counties west of the mountains, especially in the central Puget Sound, present issues for such newcomers.

Affordability remains a challenge in the state’s housing market, the report said. This is despite continued strong permitting activity of nearly 8,594 new units, primarily in multifamily housing units in metropolitan areas, marking a 71.6 percent increase in the number of units under construction compared to a year ago.

The Runstad Center produces home sales statistics in partnership with Washington Realtors. Each quarterly release coincides with information from the National Association of Realtors regarding median home prices by metropolitan area.

Sales, median home prices and affordability data for all Washington counties are available at the Runstad Center’s 

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For more information, contact Stephen O’Connor at 206-685-9989 or steveoco@uw.edu; or Alon Bassok at 206-356-1331 or abassok@uw.edu.

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Statewide home prices leveling off, but affordability woes linger /news/2015/02/11/statewide-home-prices-leveling-off-but-affordability-woes-linger/ Wed, 11 Feb 2015 23:51:59 +0000 /news/?p=35594 Home sale prices were down in the fourth quarter of 2014 compared to the third quarter but up compared with the previous year, and the rate of home sales also dropped, according to the at the 91̽»¨.

The statewide median sales price for a single family home stood at $266,900 in the final quarter of 2014, 3.7 percent lower than the third quarter, but 4.1 percent higher than the fourth quarter of 2013.

Similarly, the seasonally adjusted annual rate of existing home sales fell 3.4 percent from the third quarter of 2014 — from 96,390 to 93,070 homes — while remaining half a percentage point above that time in 2013. This means that if the quarter’s pace continued unchanged for a year, that number of homes would be sold.

And though the volume of sales has recovered since the recent years of recession, overall sales remain 34 percent below their all-time high in the third quarter of 2003.

Fourth quarter home sales for 2014, as reported by the Runstad Center for Real Estate Studies.Runstad Center

In the fourth quarter of 2014, home prices rose in all but one of the state’s metropolitan counties, Walla Walla County. Cowlitz County recorded the highest relative increase of 13.5 percent, followed by Douglas County at 12.1 percent. Median prices were lower than a year earlier in nine counties, with prices in Ferry County in northeast Washington coming in 40 percent below last year.

Given the variety of location and market diversity in the state, median housing prices are highly variable, ranging from $60,000 in Ferry County to $449,300 in King County.

Housing affordability for all buyers statewide changed its recent course and rose in the fourth quarter. That index — where 100 means a middle-income family can just qualify for a median-priced home, given a 20 percent down payment and a 30-year fixed mortgage rate at prevailing rates — was 148.9, up from 143 the third quarter of 2014.

Statewide, the first-time buyer index showed an increase of 3.4 points, ending the quarter at 83.8. The first time buyer index assumes a less expensive home, lower down payment and lower income. This means that a household earning 70 percent of the median household income — as may be true of first-time buyers — had only 83.8 percent of the income required to purchase a typical starter home statewide.

Though up in general, housing affordability varied widely across the state. The least affordable county continues to be San Juan, and Ferry County the most affordable. For first-time buyers in metropolitan areas, Benton County was again the most affordable and King County the least affordable.

Affordability remains a challenge in the state’s housing market, the report said. This is despite continued strong permitting activity of nearly 7,500 new units, primarily in multifamily housing units in metro areas, marking a 7.1 percent increase in the number of united under construction compared to a year ago.

The Runstad Center produces home sales statistics in partnership with Washington Realtors. Each quarterly release coincides with information from the National Association of Realtors regarding median home prices by metropolitan area.

Sales, median home prices and affordability data for all Washington counties are available at the Runstad Center’s 

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For more information, contact O’Connor at 206-685-9989 or steveoco@uw.edu; or Alon Bassok at 206-356-1331 or abassok@uw.edu.

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Home prices up, sales down in third quarter of 2014 /news/2014/11/14/home-prices-up-sales-down-in-third-quarter-of-2014/ Fri, 14 Nov 2014 22:53:23 +0000 /news/?p=34651 In the third quarter of 2014, home sale prices increased, but sales themselves were fewer in Washington state.

The statewide median sales price for a single family home stood at $277,100 according to the in the 91̽»¨’s . This is an increase of 2.3 percent from the second quarter and a 5.2 percent increase over the $263,400 median resale price recorded in the third quarter of 2013.

Conversely, while the seasonally adjusted annual rate of existing home sales rose 11.2 percent from the second to the third quarter of 2014 (86,690 to 96,390 homes), it dropped 2.6 percent from the same quarter last year. This means that if the quarter’s pace continued unchanged for a year, that number of homes would be sold. And though most economic statistics are reported with seasonally adjusted annual rates, these are not forecasts of future activity.

Third quarter home sales for 2014, as reported by the Runstad Center for Real Estate Studies.
Third quarter home sales for 2014, as reported by the Runstad Center for Real Estate Studies. Photo: Runstad Center

It is said that a rising tide lifts all boats, which in the third quarter of 2014 was true in all but one of the state’s metropolitan counties. While Walla Walla County saw a decrease of 4.6 percent in home values, Chelan County recorded the highest relative increase of 13.7 percent, followed by Douglas and Snohomish Counties with increases of 8.4 percent and 8.2 percent respectively.

Median prices were lower than 2013 in 12 of the state’s 39 counties, with prevailing prices in Columbia County 30 percent below last year. Given the state’s market diversity, median house prices are highly variable, ranging from $82,500 in Lincoln County to $462,100 in King County.

Housing affordability for all buyers statewide continued to fall in the third quarter. That index — where 100 means a middle-income family can just qualify for a median-priced home, given a 20 percent down payment and a 30-year fixed mortgage rate at prevailing rates — was slightly lower at 143 from 144.2 the previous quarter.

The least affordable county continues to be San Juan, with an all-buyer index of 78.5. Conversely, homes in Lincoln County also continue to offer the most affordability registering a value of 356.5. For first-time buyers in metropolitan areas, Benton County was again the most affordable and King County the least affordable. Affordability is by far the largest concern in the state’s housing market, despite strong permitting activity of over 9,000 new units (primarily in multifamily housing units in metro areas), a 16.4 percent increase over a year ago.

Statewide, the first-time buyer index also showed a very small drop of 0.6 points, ending the quarter at 80.4. The first-time buyer index assumes a less expensive home, lower down payment, and lower income. This means that a household earning 70 percent of the median household income – as may be true of first-time buyers — had only 80.4 percent of the income required to purchase a typical starter home statewide.

The Runstad Center produces home sales statistics in partnership with Washington Realtors. Each quarterly release coincides with information from the National Association of Realtors regarding median home prices by metropolitan area.

Sales, median home prices and affordability data for all Washington counties are available at the Runstad Center’s .

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For more information, contact Alon Bassok of the Runstad Center at 206-356-1331 or abassok@uw.edu.

 

 

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Washington housing market improves in second quarter of 2014 /news/2014/08/21/washington-housing-market-improves-in-second-quarter-of-2014/ Thu, 21 Aug 2014 16:14:24 +0000 /news/?p=33328 Washington state’s housing market rebounded from its first quarter performance, as the annual rate of existing home sales rose 6.4 percent in the second quarter of 2014.

While the increase from the first to the second quarter is notable, year-over-year sales activity is still down across the state, according to the second quarter housing report from the  at the 91̽»¨.

As measured on a seasonally adjusted basis, the home sales are on pace to total about 86,690 for the 2014 calendar year.

“While most economic statistics are reported at seasonally adjusted annual rates, these are not forecasts of future activity,” said Stephen O’Connor, Runstad Center director. “Nevertheless, at the current pace of sales we’re looking at a 7.5 percent decline in sales activity from the second quarter in 2013.”

Statewide, the median home sales price increased 7.9 percent from the same time last year and now stands at $270,900, up nearly 9 percent from the first quarter.

While the transition from the winter to the spring selling season is almost always a contributing factor, so is the lingering lack of supply, O’Connor said. This shortfall is most pronounced within the state’s major metropolitan areas. While both Snohomish and King County posted strong year-over-year increases of 10.4 percent and 7.6 percent respectively, median sales prices were lower than a year ago in 12 of the state’s 39 counties.

Local median house prices are highly variable, ranging from a low of $129,000 in Grays Harbor County to $454,000 in King County.

Runstad Center for Real Estate Studies second quarter home sales 2014
Photo: Runstad Center for Real Estate Studies

Given the increase in the median sales price, it was not surprising that housing affordability for all buyers statewide fell slightly to 144.2 from 152.6 a quarter ago, O’Connor said. This metric suggests that a middle-income family could afford a home selling for 44.2 percent above the median sales price, assuming a 20 percent down payment and a 30-year mortgage at prevailing rates.

Statewide, the first-time buyer index, a measure of affordability for new homeowners, also showed a small drop of 4.3 points, ending the quarter at 81. The first time buyer index measures the availability of a household earning 70 percent of the median household income to afford a home priced at 85 percent of the median value in the county.

Like the median sales price statistic, housing affordability varies widely across the state. The least affordable county is San Juan, with an all-buyer index of 90.1. Conversely, homes in Lincoln County offer the most affordability registering a value of 142.8. For first-time buyers in metropolitan areas, Benton County was again the most affordable and King County the least affordable.

The Runstad Center produces home sales statistics in partnership with Washington Realtors. Each quarterly release coincides with information from the National Association of Realtors regarding median home prices by metropolitan area.

Sales, median home prices and affordability data for all Washington counties are available at the Runstad Center’s .

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For more information, contact Runstad Center Director Stephen O’Connor at 206-685-9989 or steveoco@uw.edu.

 

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Washington housing market weaker in first quarter of 2014 /news/2014/05/12/washington-housing-market-weaker-in-first-quarter-of-2014/ Mon, 12 May 2014 15:28:59 +0000 /news/?p=32061 Washington state’s housing market finished weaker in the first quarter of 2014 when compared to the end of 2013, according to the  at the 91̽»¨.

“The housing market is still suffering from low inventory,” said Stephen O’Connor, director of the center. “This is evidenced by decreased sales volume and by an overall decrease in available listings.”

Existing home sales declined 12.1 percent in the first quarter, which is a 7.1 percent decline from the first quarter in 2013, for a seasonally adjusted annual sale rate of 81,450 homes. This means that if the sales rate for the quarter continued for a year, that number of homes would be sold. Most economic statistics are reported at seasonally adjust annual rates, but these are not forecasts of future activity.

Compared to a year ago, the statewide median home sales price increased 8.2 percent and now stands at $248,900. This is down 3 percent from the fourth quarter of 2013.

First-quarter home sales 2014, from  91̽»¨Runstad Center for Real Estate Studies
Photo: Runstad Center for Real Estate Studies

Metro areas such as King and Pierce counties showed 9 percent and 12.8 percent increases, respectively, in median sales price over the same time in 2013. But median prices were lower than last year in 16 of Washington’s 39 counties, with prices in Lewis and Whitman counties at least 13 percent below last year.

Local median home prices in the state are highly variable, ranging from $70,000 in Lincoln County to $419,000 in King County.

Housing affordability for all buyers statewide ticked upward to 152.6 from 149.4 a quarter ago. This metric suggests that a middle-income family could afford a home selling for 52.6 percent above the median, provided they have a 20 percent down payment and enter into a 30-year mortgage at prevailing rates.

Statewide, the first-time buyer index showed a small gain of 1.8 points, ending the quarter at 85.3. An index of 100 would mean that a first-time home buyer has enough income to buy a starter home, or one at about 85 percent of the median price for the state.

“Low supply and slowly increasing interest rates continue to make it difficult for first-time buyers to be competitive in the market for starter homes, especially in and around Seattle,” said George McGilliard, president of Washington Realtors, which produces home sales statistics in partnership with the Runstad Center.

Housing affordability varied widely across the state. The least affordable county is currently San Juan, with an all-buyer index of 87.7.  Conversely, homes in Lincoln and Wahkiakum counties offer the most affordability, registering values of 404.4 and 387.9.

For first-time buyers in metropolitan areas, Benton County (the Tri-Cities area) was again the most affordable and King County the least affordable.

Each quarterly release coincides with information from the National Association of Realtors regarding median home prices by metropolitan area.

Final numbers on supply constraints, prices, building activity and more will be released next month in the center’s full Washington State Housing Market report.

Sales, median home prices and affordability data for all Washington counties are available at the Runstad Center’s .

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For more information, contact O’Connor at 206-685-9989 or steveoco@uw.edu.

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