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Washington’s June Revenue Forecast Shows Small Improvements

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On Tuesday, June 18, the Washington State Economic & Revenue Forecast Council (ERFC) released its quarterly update of General Fund-State (GFS) revenues. Compared聽with the , expected GFS revenues are up $110 million for the current biennium (2011-13) and $121 million for the next biennium (2013-15), meaning legislators have an additional $231 million to factor into their budget negotiations.

While these changes are positive, they represent very minor adjustments. Under the updated forecast, the state is expected to take in $30.65 billion in the current biennium and $32.66 billion in the next, thus the increases represent adjustments of less than 0.5 percent each.

Most of the positive variance came from increases in forecasted housing construction, taxable real estate activity, and Revenue Act taxes. Real estate excise taxes came in $34 million (34 percent) higher than forecasted and Revenue Act taxes came in $54 million (2 percent) higher鈥攅xceeding the January 2008 pre-recession peak.聽Lower than expected inflation and employment worked against these gains, but weren鈥檛 enough to negate them.聽 Although Washington employment has been slowly increasing in most sectors (especially construction), aerospace and government employment are in decline.

It is important to note that much uncertainty surrounds the council鈥檚 2013-15 baseline forecast due to the Federal sequester, Europe鈥檚 recession, and China鈥檚 slowing economic growth. The ERFC gives its baseline a 50 percent probability and its optimistic and pessimistic alternative forecasts 20 percent and 30 percent respectively.聽The optimistic forecast is $2.5 billion above the baseline and the pessimistic forecast is $2.5 billion below.

In addition, it should be noted that, like the March forecast, the June update did not assume any revenue from taxable marijuana sales as the Federal Government鈥檚 response to Initiative 502 is still unclear.

Some state lawmakers are optimistic that the new forecast will expedite their budget negotiations; however, the two sides鈥� have a ways to go before the end of the fiscal year on June 30th (12 days from now). 鈥淲e鈥檒l get closer as a result of this,鈥� said Representative Ross Hunter during a press conference Tuesday morning.

Senate Releases Revised Budget Proposal

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On Saturday, the Senate released a , which closely resembles the budget they passed in April.聽For the UW, the two budgets differ in just a few ways:

  • Unlike the original Senate budget, the revised budget does not include a $12.5M transfer away聽from the 91探花Hospital Account;
  • The revised budget does not cut the 91探花by $3.2M for 鈥渁dministrative efficiencies鈥� that were assumed in the original budget; but
  • Compared to the original proposal, the revised budget provides the 91探花with $3.2M less in new funding.

The latter two changes essentially nullify each other.聽A few additional changes occurred with regards to state employee health benefits; we are working to interpret the effects and will provide more information as soon as possible.

As mentioned, the revised Senate budget doesn鈥檛 stray far from the original. Just like the Senate鈥檚 original proposal, its revised budget:

  • Provides the 91探花with $479.6M (General Fund and Education Legacy Trust funds) for聽the 2013-15 biennium鈥�$10.2M of which is one-time performance-based funding;
  • Assumes 0% tuition increases for resident undergraduates;
  • Preserves tuition setting authority, but nullifies that authority if either SB 5883 or SB 5941 pass (the bills would require the 91探花to decrease resident undergraduate tuition rates by 3 percent for the 2013-15 biennium and limit future resident undergrad tuition growth to the rate of inflation); and
  • Generates 鈥渘ew鈥� funding for higher education by imposing a 20 percent tuition surcharge on international students at the state鈥檚 public colleges and universities.

For more information about the original Senate proposal, please see the .

Closed Presidential Searches Meet Opposition from Students, Press

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A student journalist and two newspapers are filing lawsuits challenging Louisiana State University (LSU) for choosing a new president in a closed search process. LSU鈥檚 presidential search committee released just one finalist, F. King Alexander (the current president of California State University at Long Beach) for consideration. The suits claim that the closed search denied the public the right to participate in the search and violated the state鈥檚 public-records laws, which guarantee open access to public documents. The plaintiffs claim the list of candidates for a university president position should be open to the public under Louisiana鈥檚 Public Records Act.

Concern over closed searches has been mounting elsewhere, as well. While many states have laws that guarantee access to public records, others allow universities to withhold information on candidates until a certain point in the process. Universities argue that closed searches are necessary because many prestigious applicants are currently presidents of other institutions and would be uncomfortable with publically acknowledging their candidacy, for fear of retribution or embarrassment if they do not land the job. Advocates of open searches say that students and faculty have a right to be informed about the process and will be more confident in the eventual choice if they see all of the options upfront.

Washington is currently considering amending its own public records law with . The bill would require the 鈥渁pplications of finalists applying for the highest management position in an agency鈥�, such as a university president, to be released to the public. The information would need to be provided before the agency could make its hiring decision. Until now, applications for public employment were exempt from public disclosure under Washington law. The bill passed unanimously out of the House and is currently being considered in the Senate.

To read more about the Louisiana case, check out the Chronicle鈥檚 . To read HB 1298, please follow this .

House Chair Releases Revised Budget Proposal

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House Ways & Means Chair Ross Hunter released a revised today. The proposal represents Democrats鈥� updated negotiating position as budget discussions intensify in the last few weeks of the current biennium. We expect the revised House chair budget to pass the floor later this week, after which leaders of both parties and chambers will continue their budget negotiations. It is likely that the 91探花will not have a clear sense of its actual anticipated state funding level until the end of June.

The revised House budget provides approximately $5 million less for the 91探花than the previous House budget.聽 In addition, the revised House budget assumes tuition increases of only 3 percent per year for resident undergraduates, compared to 5 percent per year in the House engrossed budget. Thus, even less revenue is available.

Additional differences between the revised House budget and the House engrossed budget:

  • Clean Energy Institute Proviso 鈥� Unlike the previous House budget, which allocated $12 million of the UW鈥檚 general fund for the creation and staffing of a Clean Energy Institute, the revised budget only directs $9 million to that purpose.
  • Center on Ocean Acidification 鈥� Identical to the budgets of Governor Inslee and the Senate, the House now provides $1.82 million for a new Center on Ocean Acidification.
  • Forestry Program 鈥� The revised House budget states that the 91探花shall establish a Forestry Program 鈥渨ithin existing resources.鈥澛� In the accompanying budget spreadsheet, $450,000 in “tuition resources” is set aside for this purpose.

Some similarities between the two budgets (this list is not exhaustive):

  • Computer Science & Engineering Proviso 鈥� Both House budgets stipulate that $14.5 million of the $20.8 million in Education Legacy Trust funding appropriated to the 91探花for the biennium must be reserved for the expansion of computer science and engineering enrollments.
  • College of Engineering Proviso 鈥� Like the prior House budget, the revised budget appropriates $2 million in new state funds to expand College of Engineering enrollments.
  • O&M Funding 鈥� Both House budgets provide funding to cover operation and maintenance (O&M) costs for the UW鈥檚 new Molecular Engineering building and Balmer Hall.
  • Compensation 鈥� Both budgets restore the 3 percent salary cut imposed on state agencies in the last biennium.聽 And, as neither budget explicitly extends the current salary freeze for state employees, which is set to expire on June 30 of this year, we assume the freeze will be lifted under both.

Please see the full for more information.

Georgetown Sheds Light on Unemployment and Earnings Trends for Recent Grads

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To understand how graduates of different majors are faring in the current job market, a new Georgetown Center on Education and the Workforce examines unemployment rates and median earnings by degree for 鈥渞ecent college graduates鈥� (ages 22-26 with bachelor鈥檚 degrees), 鈥渆xperienced college graduates鈥� (ages 30-54), and 鈥済raduate degree holders鈥� (ages 30-54 with at least a master鈥檚 degree).

The report, entitled Hard Times 2013, finds that the overall unemployment rate for recent graduates is 7.9 percent, with a range of about 7 to 9 percent depending on degree, excepting some notable outliers. Experienced graduates鈥� unemployment percentage hovered around 4 to 6 percent, while those with graduate degrees had unemployment rates of just 2 to 4 percent.

The report finds that undergraduate majors do matter鈥攂ut not in the way we might expect. Some unemployment rates were surprising: a recent graduate majoring in music (8.6 percent) is slightly more likely to find a job than a recent computer science grad (8.7 percent). Recently graduated journalism and general engineering majors have the same unemployment rate, at 7 percent. The highest unemployment rates were among recent grads in information systems (14.7 percent) and architecture (12.8 percent), while the lowest were nursing (4.8 percent), elementary education (5 percent), physical fitness/parks and recreation (5.2 percent), chemistry (5.8 percent), and mathematics (5.9 percent).

Furthermore, earnings differentials between recent graduates鈥� majors are smaller than we might think: the median salary for most is between 30K and 40K per year. Recent grads in computer science and math make slightly more (45K), while recent engineering grads have the highest earnings (54K).

In many cases, what matters most is not degree field, but degree level and experience.聽 For an experienced college graduate, median earnings typically increase by 20K to 30K, depending on degree.聽 And, in most fields, getting a graduate degree pushes median earnings up an additional 10K to 20K.

Of course, it is important to take these findings with a grain of salt: while field of study and level of experience can certainly influence the likelihood of finding a job and the amount of money a graduate will make, they are not the only factors. The institution attended, year of graduation, location, and much more can significantly impact earnings and unemployment.

Read the and see a complete breakdown of earnings and unemployment rates by major and experience level.

 

Bipartisan Bills Seeks to Provide Transparency in Higher Ed

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The Student Right to Know Before You Go Act of 2013, a bipartisan federal bill championed by Senators Wyden (D-OR), Rubio (R-FL) and Warner (D-VA) and Representatives Andres (D-NJ) and Hunter (R-CA), was introduced in both chambers of Congress last week. The bill seeks to give students and their families more information about graduation rates, student debt, transfer rates, expected earnings and other important considerations. The goal is to centralize the data so that families can make an informed decision about college.

While there is support for some of the major provisions in the bill, especially for more information on student debt, others are more controversial. The bill would create a federal unit-record database, which some privacy advocates fear could cause confidential data to leak and could enable the government to use data for non-educational purposes. Currently, such databases are banned, which is a major hurdle to the passage of the bill.

Furthermore, while everyone agrees that students should have as much information as possible in making their decisions, colleges are concerned about increasing already onerous reporting requirements. Universities attempting to manage scarce resources are wary of diverting money from the academic mission towards reporting. The Government Accountability Office recently released a indicating that college experts find existing reporting requirements, such as providing data on enrollment rates, campus safety, and cost of attendance, exceedingly burdensome.

It remains to be seen which, if any, pieces of the Student Right to Know Before You Go Act will move forward in the coming weeks. The Office of Federal Relations is tracking this measure. Please follow their to receive updates as this and other similar legislation continues through the House and Senate.

91探花and WSU collaborate to offer 鈥淎cademic Redshirt鈥� program

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The 91探花 (UW) and Washington State University (WSU) (along with eight other top universities) have been selected by the National Science Foundation to participate in the program, a $10 million initiative to increase graduation rates in STEM fields, particularly engineering and computer science. The 91探花will receive $970,000 and WSU will receive $700,000 over five years to fund their projects. The initiative is funded by the Intel Corporation, the GE Foundation and prominent hedge-fund manager and White House adviser Mark Gallogly. While the funding for this program is limited, experts hope it will encourage innovative pilot projects at the selected universities and prompt other companies and individuals to donate.

The UW, in collaboration with WSU, will use its funds to implement an 鈥渁cademic redshirt鈥� program for engineering. The program will enroll low-income high school graduates in a five-year engineering degree program. The first year will focus on solidifying students鈥� math and science skills. Students will receive individualized advising as well as assistance with acclimating to university workloads. This will help them to be better prepared for the rigors of engineering study at the 91探花and will remedy learning gaps they might have from high school, hopefully increasing freshman retention and degree completion. After successful completion of the first year, the students will be accepted into one of the UW鈥檚 engineering departments. 91探花and WSU each hope to enroll 32 freshmen in the program, reaching a total of 320 students in five years.

More about the Graduate10K+ program is available in the Higher Ed Chronicle鈥檚 and .

Accenture Report Recommends Hiring Graduates Based on Potential

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, a management consulting firm, recently conducted a of 2011/2012 college graduates and 2013 pending graduates. The survey focuses on the 2011/2012 graduates鈥� job search experience, and asks them about their current jobs, salaries, and future education plans. Accenture then contrasts their responses with the employment expectations of pending 2013 graduates. Some interesting findings include:

  • While more than 77 percent of 2013 grads expect to receive employer-provided training at their future job, only 48 percent of 2011/2012 grads actually received such training from their employer.
  • 50 percent of 2011/2012 grads who are currently unemployed claim that they cannot find a job because companies believe they do not have enough experience, even though 72 percent of 2011/2012 grads participated in an internship during school.
  • 41 percent of 2011/2012 graduates believe they are underemployed, meaning their job does not require a college degree.
  • Yet despite the still-sluggish economy, 81 percent of 2011/2012 graduates report they found a secure job within 6 months of graduation.
  • Of 2011/2012 graduates, 42 percent expect to pursue a graduate degree, but only 18 percent of 2013 grads expect to do so.

Accenture鈥檚 report points to the disconnect between employers鈥� and graduates鈥� expectations of employment, particularly when it comes to experience and training. The report encourages employers to hire based on potential and a broad skill base, not on specific expertise or perfect qualifications. Furthermore, it recommends that employers provide increased on-the-job training for recent graduates so they can gain necessary experience and job skills to supplement their educational qualifications. Finally, Accenture advises that employers work more closely with educational institutions to help better align their needs with university curricula and to provide more internship opportunities for students.

Read the , or check out this from the Chronicle of Higher Education.

Legislature Adjourns, Special Session Starts May 13

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The 105-day state legislative session officially ended this Sunday, April 28th. Unfortunately, the state legislature was unable to reach a compromise on the budget by the end of the session. A significant cause of the impasse is the Washington State Supreme Court ruling that requires the legislature to fully fund K-12 education. 聽The proposal repeals eleven tax exemptions and extends several other taxes, diverting $1.17 billion into education, while the cuts several social programs to fund education with $1 billion. Governor Inslee has called a special session, to begin May 13th, in order to pass a compromise budget and to pass legislation on other issues such as universal background checks for gun purchases, the state DREAM act, tougher DUI laws, and the Reproductive Parity Act.聽When聽special session begins, all bills that have passed out of the house of origin will be reintroduced in that house聽and placed on third reading. 聽Budget writers will stay in Olympia to try to work on a compromise in the next two weeks. As always, we will post any updates on their progress to this blog. Be sure to monitor the 91探花 blog for updates as well.

91探花Ranks 1st among Public Schools and 2nd Overall for Federal R&D Funding

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Of the nearly 900 schools that received federal money for research and development (R&D) in FY 2011, the 91探花ranks first among public institutions and second overall in terms of federal research funding. According to a study by the National Science Foundation (NSF), approximately 20 percent of all federal R&D support went to just 10 universities. reviewed those universities, Table 1 summarizes their findings.

Johns Hopkins University, a private institution, topped the list with nearly $1.9 billion鈥攎ore than doubling what any other university received that year. The majority of Johns Hopkins鈥� federal funding came from the Dept. of Defense and NASA. The university also聽brought in billions via fundraising efforts.

The 91探花came in second with almost $950 million in federal R&D funding鈥攖he most of any public school. The majority of the UW鈥檚 money came from the Dept. of Health and Human Services; however, the University was the top beneficiary of NSF funding, receiving more than $145 million in 2011.

Year after year, the same schools consistently receive the most money, said Ronda Britt, a survey statistician with the NSF. 24/7 Wall St. quotes her as saying, these universities 鈥渉ave big research programs that receive a lot of support year after year, and have a lot of infrastructure that helps them keep the money stable.鈥� This holds true for the UW, which has ranked first among public schools since 1974. Having large endowments was another commonality of the top 10 schools, yet federal funding covered the bulk of R&D expenditures in all cases.

As these universities rely heavily on the federal government to support their research, many are concerned about the sweeping cuts of sequestration. The 91探花and other universities are preparing for a range of possible impacts. As described in our , the sequester could reduce the UW鈥檚 federal grant and contract support by an estimated $75M to $100M during FY13. The 91探花community is encouraged to remain cautious and conservative in spending federal awards and in planning for future federal funding.