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2019 Higher Education Trends

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As the higher education landscape continues to change and evolve in the United States, below are some select national and state trends driving higher education policy and innovation in recent years. The Office of Planning & Budgeting (OPB) continues to monitor these, and other, trends. This list was curated using multiple sources, including recent news articles and blogs, recent state-level legislation, and higher education trends analyses from The Brookings Institution and The Chronicle of Higher Education.

1. College Affordability

College affordability continues to dominate the national conversation around higher education. This year, the to make college more accessible and affordable for Washington families. Read more about the proposal in OPB鈥檚 brief on the legislature鈥檚 final compromise 2019-21 state budgets.

Additionally, many of the Democratic candidates for president in 2020 have released higher education policy proposals to address college affordability. These to increase funding for Pell Grants, to create 鈥渇ree college鈥� using state-federal partnerships, expand student loan forgiveness, and increase dedicated funding for Historically Black Colleges and Universities (HBCUs) and other Minority-Serving Institutions (MSIs).

2. Changing Student Profiles

According to the , 38 percent of all undergraduates are older than 25. Traditional college students 鈥� 18- to 21-year-olds who attend school full-time 鈥� now only make up about a third of the college population.

Students are also increasingly taking on additional responsibilities while in school. According to , 85 percent of students are working in paid employment while studying. Lumina also reports that students work, on average, 19 hours per week.

3. Integrating Data

A from the National Association of Student Personnel Administrators, Association for Institutional Research, and Educause found that 鈥渕ost institutions are investing in data and analytics projects, but few are measuring the resulting costs.鈥�

The report found that colleges are using data in more ways as they modernize and manage programs to show returns on student and state investments. Studies of students鈥� academic progress and success are the leading types of data projects. Many institutions are conducting several types of student success studies annually. However, nearly one fourth of institutions are not collecting usable business and systems-level data and few institutions are systematically collecting, integrating, and using their data.

4. Changes in Admissions

Last year, the University of Chicago that it would no longer require applicants to submit SAT or ACT scores, the most-selective institution ever to adopt a test-optional policy. Today, have adopted similar policies.

As colleges and universities continue to use data to better understand how their students perform, they become less reliant on test scores. According to the , 鈥渙n many campuses, deep dives into enrollment data have helped admissions offices determine which pieces of information they collect from applicants actually help them predict a variety of student outcomes, such as first-year grades and progress toward a degree.鈥� The University of Chicago 鈥渇ound that ACT and SAT scores didn鈥檛 tell it much about who would succeed and who would struggle.鈥�

5. Open-Access Research

Global advocates are for publicly funded research to be available through open-access sites, rather than behind paywalls of subscription-based journals. Over the last few years, the movement has gained momentum at increasing cost to publishers. In 2018, said it would not subscribe to a publisher鈥檚 journals in one bundled deal. This year, the cancelled its contract with Elsevier, one of the biggest academic publishers in the world. The University of Iowa also a new open-source online journal, providing open access to the research and creative scholarship of the university.

This debate has some immediate consequences for academics and researchers, who will lose access to journals unless schools renegotiate with publishers. The University of California attempted to mitigate some of these consequences by alternative methods to access publications.

听6.听Transnational Students

According to , the number of American students enrolling at foreign colleges is expected to grow from 2.3 million student in 2015 to 6.9 million in 2030. This trend is attributed to multiple causes, including 鈥渉igher ambitions and investments for world-class universities鈥� and 鈥渁ccelerated growth of global, multi-national networks.鈥�

However, in the United States, the number of new international student enrollments is declining. Inside Higher Ed that, 鈥淣ew enrollments fell 6.3 percent at the undergraduate level, 5.5 percent at the graduate level, and 9.7 percent at the non-degree level from 2016-17 to 2017-18.鈥� While , increasing by 1.5 percent in 2018, there is 听that new U.S. immigration policies might have long-term impacts on international enrollment.

7. Online Enrollment

Online courses continue to become more popular in the United States. In 2016-17, , while the number of students who took at least some of their courses online grew by 5.7 percent. Over the last 15 years, online enrollment has .

However, a from George Mason University claims that the growth in online enrollment has been 鈥渄isproportionately large in the for-profit sector.鈥� Further, 鈥渙nline coursework has contributed to increasing gaps in educational success across socioeconomic groups while failing to improve affordability.鈥�

8. Online Program Managers

As online enrollments rise, online program managers (OPMs) are working with colleges and universities to provide online options for students. contract with institutions of higher education to create, market, and recruit for online degree and non-degree programs. In return, from the online programs offered at public colleges and universities.

College and universities like Harvard University, the University of Pennsylvania, and the University of North Carolina already provide online programs through OPMs. Purdue University chose to Kaplan University in 2017 to directly expand its online presence.

Conclusion

Higher education continues to adapt to new technologies and a changing global environment. This blog represents just some of the most recent changes, and there are many other challenges and opportunities for American colleges and universities. As institutions seek to balance the status quo with contemporary shifts, their flexibility to adapt to changing circumstances will be a key element in determining their future success.

New Report Examines Challenges Facing Public Research Universities in 21st Century

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The Lincoln Project, the American Academy of Arts and Sciences鈥� study of public research universities (PRUs), , which examines the challenges facing PRUs and recommends strategies for addressing them. The recommendations are threefold:

  1. Address Financial Challenges:

The sharp reduction in state funding for PRUs鈥攄own 30 percent since the year 2000鈥攈as been particularly harmful because it has forced public universities to raise tuition. This directly affects access for low-income students鈥攐ne of the key responsibilities of public higher education. For this reason, the authors highlight financial aid for low-income, in-state undergraduate students as the most important program that institutions can provide. The UW鈥檚 Husky Promise program, which provides free tuition to resident undergraduates with financial need, is an example of this type of financial aid.

To cope with diminished state funding, the report also recommends:

  • Regional alliances with other PRUs, allowing the schools to combine programs;
  • Focusing fundraising on unrestricted donations, allowing universities to put the money towards core educational programs;
  • State-led creation of PRU long-term funding plans, allowing universities to more securely plan for their future; and
  • Advocating for additional federal research support.
  1. Form Public-Private Partnerships:

In the authors鈥� view, there is a natural alliance between PRUs and businesses. PRUs are critical to the business community: they educate workers and provide research upon which businesses and corporations build their enterprises. Universities also rely on businesses for funding assistance and for employment opportunities for their graduates. The report recommends that businesses provide research funds, well-paid internships, scholarships, and other support mechanisms for universities and their students. Universities, in turn, should provide easier access to their research and actively work towards partnering with businesses. The 91探花has a variety of public-private partnerships, including its Global Innovation Exchange (GIX), a partnership with Microsoft and Tsinghua University in Beijing.

  1. Serve Students:
  • Simplify financial aid: Filling out a FAFSA is a complicated process听which听can impede access to higher education. Simplifying the loan application procedure would help ensure that a larger proportion of students who are interested in higher education get access to the funds they need to pursue their goals.
  • Track student performance: Thanks to improved data analysis tools, universities have an enhanced ability to help students graduate. The report highlights Georgia State University (GSU) as a particularly successful example. GSU uses an algorithm to pinpoint students at risk of failing or dropping out, enabling the university鈥檚 advising services to intervene on a one-to-one basis. According to the report, these interventions have increased graduation rates by 20 percent, reduced time to graduation, and eliminated graduation rate differences between racial, ethnic, and socioeconomic groups.
  • Improve transfer pathways: The report recommends that four-year institutions work with community colleges to simplify the transfer procedure. Doing so can make higher education more affordable and accessible and can help transfer students graduate with a four-year degree on time and with as little debt as possible.

Two overarching themes of the Lincoln Project鈥檚 report are partnerships and accessibility. Public universities will need both in order to continue fulfilling their dual missions of conducting top-level research and providing high-quality, affordable higher education.

Stanford Announces It Will Divest from Coal Companies

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On Tuesday, Stanford鈥檚 Board of Trustees it 鈥渨ill not directly invest in approximately 100 publicly traded companies for which coal extraction is the primary business, and will divest of any current direct holdings in such companies.鈥� Furthermore, Stanford stated it would encourage its external investment managers to avoid investments in such companies.

The decision was made at the recommendation of the university’s Advisory Panel on Investment Responsibility and Licensing (APIRL), which had spent several months analyzing a petition by a student group called Fossil Free Stanford. After conducting an extensive research-based review of the issues, APRIL concluded that sufficient coal alternatives exist and that divestment 鈥減rovides leadership on a critical matter facing our world and is an appropriate application of the university’s investment responsibility policy.鈥�

This issue has arisen several times at the UW, which (like Stanford) is a leader in . Stanford鈥檚 decision may set a precedent for other universities, including the UW, that have grappled with this issue.

International Graduate Applications Increase, But Countries of Origin Shift

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The Council of Graduate Schools (CGS) released its on Thursday, which revealed that the number of international student applications to U.S. graduate schools increased by 7 percent in 2014 and, for the second year in a row, Chinese applications fell slightly, while those from students in India soared.

Chinese graduate applications (and enrollments) had steadily increased for the better part of a decade. But, in 2013, the number of graduate applications from China dropped by 3 percent and, this year, that number fell by another 1 percent. Meanwhile, Indian applications increased by 22 percent in 2013 and by an even more impressive 32 percent in 2014.

鈥淭he distribution of applications by country of origin鈥� remains a concern,鈥� the CGS report states, noting that Chinese applications trends have historically been more stable than Indian applications trends. Past fluctuations in Indian applications appear to have primarily resulted from changing economic circumstances and exchange rates; however CGS鈥檚 president, Debra W. Stewart, to tightening student-visa rules in the U.K.

The number of new Indian students at English universities since 2010-11, which observers partially ascribe to the elimination of post-study work opportunities for international students and, as notes, other U.K. immigration policy changes that have made the U.K. appear less welcoming of international students.

According to an article by , 鈥淪tewart said she worries that unless American lawmakers reform the visa system to make it easier for international students to stay and work after graduation, the United States could lose whatever edge it may have.鈥�

The Chinese slowdown is likely a more permanent change resulting (at least partially) from China鈥檚 push to improve its own research universities. The report鈥檚 other noteworthy findings include that Brazilian graduate applications increased by 33 percent鈥攚hich could be due in part to the Brazilian government鈥檚 massive scholarship program鈥攁nd that graduate applications from Africa, Europe and the Middle East (the three world regions reported on) all showed increases as well.

Figures for 2014 are preliminary and subject to revision in a CGS report planned for August.

“Pay It Forward鈥� Is really 鈥淧ay It Yourself and Pay More Than Ever”

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On Thursday, The Equity Line, a blog by , posted a (PIF) that discusses some of PIF鈥檚 major flaws. As a reminder, under PIF, instead of paying tuition and fees upfront, students would pay back a certain percent of their adjusted gross income for 25 years. For more information about PIF and how its supporters have applied PIF to the UW, please see the full .

The Equity Line鈥檚 blog post highlights that although PIF is marketed as a 鈥渄ebt-free鈥� way to pay for college, it is actually just another student loan program:

  • It is estimated (by the author and the UW) that many students would pay more under PIF than they currently do to pay back student loans.
  • Students with significant need 鈥� who currently receive federal, state, and institutional grants to cover tuition and fees 鈥� may have their grants (which do not need to be paid back) replaced with loans (which do).
  • Students would not be able to cover these other education costs with federal or state need-based grants because by removing the cost of tuition and fees from a student鈥檚 budget, that student鈥檚 level of calculated need would fall as would their eligibility for federal and state need programs. Thus, students would have to take out more loans (or find a way to pay upfront) for these expenses.

As the author notes, rather than 鈥淧ay It Forward,鈥� it鈥檚 really 鈥淧ay It Yourself and Pay More Than Ever.鈥�

Research Suggests MOOCs Primarily Serve the Well-Educated

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Researchers at the University of Pennsylvania recently surveyed students who had taken at least one of Penn鈥檚 twenty-four MOOCs and viewed at least one online video lecture.听Findings from the responses of 34,779 students revealed that 80 percent of the MOOC-takers already had a 2- or 4-year degree and that 44 percent already had some graduate education. This 听supports the platitude that MOOCs primarily serve the well-educated.

The trend was observed for MOOC students in the U.S., as well as those in developing countries, and even those in countries where MOOCs are popular. Coursera 鈥� the MOOC provider for Penn and several other universities 鈥� has made 鈥渁ccess鈥� central to its mission of bringing world-class education to everyone. However, notes:

鈥淐oursera has taken a hands-off approach to publicity, relying almost entirely on word of mouth (and its university partners) to spread awareness of MOOCs. It stands to reason that much of the hubbub about MOOCs has occurred in well-educated circles. Combine that with spotty Internet availability in underprivileged communities, and it makes sense that only the most privileged populations have had occasion to take a MOOC.鈥�

Coursera says they are working on several projects to help reach underserved students, particularly those without internet access. One of these efforts (we assume) are the global 鈥渓earning hubs鈥� discussed in a and in this NY Times .

Although the findings are noteworthy, the authors mention two important caveats:

  1. Their findings don鈥檛 necessarily mean MOOCs will never reach underrepresented populations, just that they haven鈥檛 done so yet; and
  2. The respondents represent only a small percentage of students registered for Penn MOOCs, let alone all MOOCs; thus 鈥渢he survey may not be generalizable.”

Higher Education and Career-Ready Graduates: New Surveys Offer Insight into America鈥檚 Opinions

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The released Tuesday reveal some of America鈥檚 views on both the future of higher education as well as its role in producing desirable outcomes, particularly career-ready graduates. Under Northeastern University鈥檚 sponsorship, FTI Consulting surveyed 263 hiring managers in July as well as 1,000 adult Americans in August.听 Here are some of their findings:听

  • Americans continue to see the value in higher education, but are concerned that the system does not adequately prepare graduates for their careers. Respondents ranked 鈥渓evel of education鈥� as the most important factor in determining a job candidate鈥檚 success; yet, 62 percent said colleges currently do only a fair to poor job of preparing graduates for the workforce. That said, 79 percent believe their own college education prepared them well.
  • Americans are conflicted about who has the greatest responsibility to train recent graduates for the workplace: employers (36 percent), colleges/universities (29 percent) or the graduates themselves (35 percent). When Americans were asked why U.S. companies are struggling to find good job candidates, the most common response was that companies are not investing enough in training new hires. However, 87 percent of Americans assert that higher education must change in order to maintain an internationally competitive workforce.
  • Americans and business leaders value 鈥渟oft鈥� skills, like problem-solving and communication, over 鈥渉ard鈥� industry-specific skills. Most Americans (65 percent) and business leaders (73 percent) believe that, for people on the job market, 鈥渂eing well-rounded with a range of abilities is more important than having industry experience because job-specific skills can be learned at work.鈥�
  • Americans and business leaders agree that experiential learning is highly valuable to students鈥� careers. Nearly all Americans (89 percent) and business leaders (74 percent) believe that students are more successful in their careers if they have work experience from a field-related internship or job. Both groups agree the most important step the U.S. can take to better prepare colleges students is to broaden the professional work programs available to them.
  • Although most Americans (67 percent) think colleges should adopt new technologies and interactive teaching methods, they have doubts about MOOCs and online degrees. Less than 30 percent of Americans and business leaders believe MOOCs are of the same quality as in-person courses, and only 37 percent of Americans would consider completing a postsecondary degree solely online. However, about half of all respondents believe MOOCs will transform education in the US and that online degrees will be equally accepted by employers within 5 to 7 years.

My take-away from all this, to summarize,听is:听 Americans and business leaders believe that people on the job market need a college education, some professional work experience, and a well-rounded skill-set and in order to succeed. However, they also believe that colleges, businesses, and the government must play a role in helping students garner those qualifications.

Oregon Passes Bill to Implement 鈥淧ay Forward, Pay Back鈥� Pilot Program

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(This piece was originally posted on 07/11/2013, however听it was lost听due to听technical issues and is therefore re-posted here.)

Last week, the Oregon legislature passed a bill that, if signed by the governor, will implement a pilot program to study the effects and feasibility of substituting upfront tuition payments with income-based, post-graduation payments. For 24 years after graduating, four-year college students would pay back 3 percent of their income and community college students would pay back 1.5 percent. Students who do not graduate would pay back a smaller percent determined by how long they were in school.

If, after several years of study, Oregon decides to adopt a plan (or some form of it), it would signify a major shift in the funding paradigm for public institutions.听But that鈥檚 a big IF. The plan has received considerable criticism due to a multitude of unanswered questions that could pose significant logistical barriers. For example:

  • How would institutions and/or the state pay for the plan鈥檚 implementation (i.e. the several years of foregone tuition revenue between when a student enters school and when they graduate and start earning pay)?
  • How would the state efficiently collect accurate income data on students who move out-of-state?
  • How would the state go about collecting and enforcing payments?
  • How would the plan account for and apply to part-time students, transfer students, mid-career students, and other non-traditional students?
  • How would the plan work with federal and state financial aid programs?听Would low-income students be accommodated so as to avoid creating barriers to entry?
  • How does one pilot a 24-year repayment program in just 2 or 3 years?

Even if Oregon鈥檚 higher education commission, which is tasked with implementing the pilot program, can find viable answers to those questions, the plan still has a number of possible (if not likely) negative consequences. For instance, the plan may:

  • Magnify the public鈥檚 view of higher education as a private good (only benefiting the individual) rather than a public good (benefits for many) which, in turn, could spur the continuing and problematic trend of replacing state dollars with tuition revenue;
  • Make institutions even more vulnerable to economic variations and recessions as their revenue would be tied to graduates鈥� earning and unemployment rates; and
  • Create social and economic imbalance between Oregon and other states since students who expect to earn less鈥攅.g. social science and humanities majors鈥攚ould be incentivized to go to Oregon, and students expecting to earn more鈥攅.g. engineering and medical students鈥攚ould likely go elsewhere.

Granted, the idea of basing college payments on graduates’ income is not a new one. Some federal student loans are eligible for income-based repayment and a program similar to Oregon鈥檚 already exists in Australia. However, Australia鈥檚 version is administered at the federal level, meaning many problems inherent in Oregon鈥檚 plan (tracking students who move around the country, imbalance between states, etc.) are avoided.

The Economic Opportunity Institute, a liberal think tank in Seattle, proposed a version of the plan for Washington in October 2012; but, unlike Oregon鈥檚 version, it has yet to go anywhere.听 We鈥檒l keep you posted.

Washington’s June Revenue Forecast Shows Small Improvements

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On Tuesday, June 18, the Washington State Economic & Revenue Forecast Council (ERFC) released its quarterly update of General Fund-State (GFS) revenues. Compared听with the , expected GFS revenues are up $110 million for the current biennium (2011-13) and $121 million for the next biennium (2013-15), meaning legislators have an additional $231 million to factor into their budget negotiations.

While these changes are positive, they represent very minor adjustments. Under the updated forecast, the state is expected to take in $30.65 billion in the current biennium and $32.66 billion in the next, thus the increases represent adjustments of less than 0.5 percent each.

Most of the positive variance came from increases in forecasted housing construction, taxable real estate activity, and Revenue Act taxes. Real estate excise taxes came in $34 million (34 percent) higher than forecasted and Revenue Act taxes came in $54 million (2 percent) higher鈥攅xceeding the January 2008 pre-recession peak.听Lower than expected inflation and employment worked against these gains, but weren鈥檛 enough to negate them.听 Although Washington employment has been slowly increasing in most sectors (especially construction), aerospace and government employment are in decline.

It is important to note that much uncertainty surrounds the council鈥檚 2013-15 baseline forecast due to the Federal sequester, Europe鈥檚 recession, and China鈥檚 slowing economic growth. The ERFC gives its baseline a 50 percent probability and its optimistic and pessimistic alternative forecasts 20 percent and 30 percent respectively.听The optimistic forecast is $2.5 billion above the baseline and the pessimistic forecast is $2.5 billion below.

In addition, it should be noted that, like the March forecast, the June update did not assume any revenue from taxable marijuana sales as the Federal Government鈥檚 response to Initiative 502 is still unclear.

Some state lawmakers are optimistic that the new forecast will expedite their budget negotiations; however, the two sides鈥� have a ways to go before the end of the fiscal year on June 30th (12 days from now). 鈥淲e鈥檒l get closer as a result of this,鈥� said Representative Ross Hunter during a press conference Tuesday morning.

Senate Releases Revised Budget Proposal

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On Saturday, the Senate released a , which closely resembles the budget they passed in April.听For the UW, the two budgets differ in just a few ways:

  • Unlike the original Senate budget, the revised budget does not include a $12.5M transfer away听from the 91探花Hospital Account;
  • The revised budget does not cut the 91探花by $3.2M for 鈥渁dministrative efficiencies鈥� that were assumed in the original budget; but
  • Compared to the original proposal, the revised budget provides the 91探花with $3.2M less in new funding.

The latter two changes essentially nullify each other.听A few additional changes occurred with regards to state employee health benefits; we are working to interpret the effects and will provide more information as soon as possible.

As mentioned, the revised Senate budget doesn鈥檛 stray far from the original. Just like the Senate鈥檚 original proposal, its revised budget:

  • Provides the 91探花with $479.6M (General Fund and Education Legacy Trust funds) for听the 2013-15 biennium鈥�$10.2M of which is one-time performance-based funding;
  • Assumes 0% tuition increases for resident undergraduates;
  • Preserves tuition setting authority, but nullifies that authority if either SB 5883 or SB 5941 pass (the bills would require the 91探花to decrease resident undergraduate tuition rates by 3 percent for the 2013-15 biennium and limit future resident undergrad tuition growth to the rate of inflation); and
  • Generates 鈥渘ew鈥� funding for higher education by imposing a 20 percent tuition surcharge on international students at the state鈥檚 public colleges and universities.

For more information about the original Senate proposal, please see the .