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UW’s Annual Economic Impact on Washington State

In May 2014,听Tripp Umbach, a national leader in economic impact analysis, was retained by the 91探花to update its 2010 analysis of the economic, employment and government revenue impacts of operations and research of all of its campuses.听 The updated听reveals that 91探花’s annual economic impact on the state of Washington is now $12.5 billion听an increase from $9.1 billion just five years ago.

An听article regarding this is posted on听as well.

91探花Plans To Create Startup Hub in Condon Hall

The 91探花 (UW) plans to convert a small section of the UDistrict into a 鈥渟tartup hub鈥 that will help connect 91探花research activity with the entrepreneurial talent who can help commercialize it. The effort will begin with just one floor of Condon Hall 鈥 the old law school, which currently houses departments displaced by other campus construction 鈥 but will expand if there is demand. The ground floor will be transformed into an open meeting area, or 鈥渕ixing chamber,鈥 where University-based entrepreneurs can connect and collaborate with the startup community, including startups that don鈥檛 necessarily have a connection to the UW. The third floor may eventually be converted into space for startups. So far, TechStars, Founder鈥檚 Co-op, and UP Global (formerly Startup Weekend) are considering taking space on the second floor starting next July.

The Office of Planning & Budgeting and the Office of the University Architect are working on this and other UDistrict planning efforts. To read more about this project, see the by GeekWire. For more information about UDistrict planning as a whole, see the recent Seattle Times and visit the U District Livability Partnership .

Washington’s June Revenue Forecast Shows Small Improvements

On Tuesday, June 18, the Washington State Economic & Revenue Forecast Council (ERFC) released its quarterly update of General Fund-State (GFS) revenues. Compared听with the , expected GFS revenues are up $110 million for the current biennium (2011-13) and $121 million for the next biennium (2013-15), meaning legislators have an additional $231 million to factor into their budget negotiations.

While these changes are positive, they represent very minor adjustments. Under the updated forecast, the state is expected to take in $30.65 billion in the current biennium and $32.66 billion in the next, thus the increases represent adjustments of less than 0.5 percent each.

Most of the positive variance came from increases in forecasted housing construction, taxable real estate activity, and Revenue Act taxes. Real estate excise taxes came in $34 million (34 percent) higher than forecasted and Revenue Act taxes came in $54 million (2 percent) higher鈥攅xceeding the January 2008 pre-recession peak.听Lower than expected inflation and employment worked against these gains, but weren鈥檛 enough to negate them.听 Although Washington employment has been slowly increasing in most sectors (especially construction), aerospace and government employment are in decline.

It is important to note that much uncertainty surrounds the council鈥檚 2013-15 baseline forecast due to the Federal sequester, Europe鈥檚 recession, and China鈥檚 slowing economic growth. The ERFC gives its baseline a 50 percent probability and its optimistic and pessimistic alternative forecasts 20 percent and 30 percent respectively.听The optimistic forecast is $2.5 billion above the baseline and the pessimistic forecast is $2.5 billion below.

In addition, it should be noted that, like the March forecast, the June update did not assume any revenue from taxable marijuana sales as the Federal Government鈥檚 response to Initiative 502 is still unclear.

Some state lawmakers are optimistic that the new forecast will expedite their budget negotiations; however, the two sides鈥 have a ways to go before the end of the fiscal year on June 30th (12 days from now). 鈥淲e鈥檒l get closer as a result of this,鈥 said Representative Ross Hunter during a press conference Tuesday morning.

Senate Releases Revised Budget Proposal

On Saturday, the Senate released a , which closely resembles the budget they passed in April.听For the UW, the two budgets differ in just a few ways:

  • Unlike the original Senate budget, the revised budget does not include a $12.5M transfer away听from the 91探花Hospital Account;
  • The revised budget does not cut the 91探花by $3.2M for 鈥渁dministrative efficiencies鈥 that were assumed in the original budget; but
  • Compared to the original proposal, the revised budget provides the 91探花with $3.2M less in new funding.

The latter two changes essentially nullify each other.听A few additional changes occurred with regards to state employee health benefits; we are working to interpret the effects and will provide more information as soon as possible.

As mentioned, the revised Senate budget doesn鈥檛 stray far from the original. Just like the Senate鈥檚 original proposal, its revised budget:

  • Provides the 91探花with $479.6M (General Fund and Education Legacy Trust funds) for听the 2013-15 biennium鈥$10.2M of which is one-time performance-based funding;
  • Assumes 0% tuition increases for resident undergraduates;
  • Preserves tuition setting authority, but nullifies that authority if either SB 5883 or SB 5941 pass (the bills would require the 91探花to decrease resident undergraduate tuition rates by 3 percent for the 2013-15 biennium and limit future resident undergrad tuition growth to the rate of inflation); and
  • Generates 鈥渘ew鈥 funding for higher education by imposing a 20 percent tuition surcharge on international students at the state鈥檚 public colleges and universities.

For more information about the original Senate proposal, please see the .

Washington Roundtable Urges Legislators to Prioritize Higher Education

A recent update on our state鈥檚 progress toward meeting the Washington Roundtable鈥檚听 emphasizes the need for legislative action on education, including protecting funding for our public universities, as well as transportation and business costs.听 The Roundtable 鈥 a nonprofit, public policy organization comprised of major, local business executives 鈥 created the Benchmarks in 2011 as a means to measure and track Washington鈥檚 economic vitality and quality of life. The organization publishes annual updates that examine state-by-state comparative data (primarily from federal sources like the U.S. Dept. of Education); assess Washington鈥檚 position in key categories; and highlight opportunities for improvement.

The showed that:

  • Washington trails most states in high school graduation rates (ranking 32nd nationally) and bachelor鈥檚 degrees awarded per capita (39th nationally).
  • Washington鈥檚 road condition rankings have dropped from 16th (2012 ranking based on 2008 data) to 29th (2013 ranking based on 2011 data) and our state continues to rank poorly on bridge conditions (41st).
  • Washington ranks in the bottom third of states for business tax burden (36th), unemployment insurance tax rates (40th) and workers鈥 compensation benefits paid (50th).
  • However, Washington has held onto its lead in patent generation (5th) and in low commercial and industrial electricity rates (3rd).

The authors argue that Washington must move quickly to improve its education pipeline and align with workforce needs. As 70 percent of Washington jobs will require postsecondary training by 2020, they assert, 鈥It is imperative that Washington prioritizes higher education and does a better job of preparing its citizens to succeed.鈥

In Monday鈥檚 edition of , Roundtable President, Steve Mullin, urged lawmakers to focus on two key topics during the remaining weeks of session:听 education and transportation. He specifically called for legislators to ensure our colleges and universities have the funding they need to develop necessary talent. 鈥淒ecision time is here,鈥 he wrote, 鈥Education is the driver of prosperity and individual quality of life. Transportation is the backbone of commerce. Both need attention before the 2013 Legislature adjourns.鈥

Sequestration Goes Into Effect at Midnight

Sequestration will take effect tonight at midnight. While the cuts will be smaller than originally mandated ($85 billion instead of $109 billion), the impact in federal FY13 will be higher since the cuts must now be applied to only seven months instead of nine. Immediate and long-term impacts on the 91探花and Washington State are difficult to predict. However, during the remaining months of federal FY13, we estimate that the sequester could reduce the UW鈥檚 federal grant and contract support by an estimated $75 million to $100 million and cut Build America Bonds (BABs) subsidy payments by $500K to $700K. Additionally, the 91探花is projected to lose about $33,000 in work study funds for 2013-14. The potential impact on Washington State includes $11.6 million less for primary and secondary education, $11.3 million less for education of children with disabilities, and 1,000 fewer children receiving Head Start services.

Please see听the prepared by the Offices of Federal Relations, Planning & Budgeting, and Researchand be sure to visit at the UW’s for regular updates.

University District Unveils Its Strategic Plan

My name is Julia Martinelli and I am the Student Assistant for the Office of the University Architect within the Office of Planning and Budgeting. I am currently a Sophomore at the 91探花 and I am planning on majoring in Architecture with a minor in Urban Ecological Design and Italian. Within my position I will be writing about events, updates, and news regarding the planning and architecture.

Currently, the University District is preparing to undergo multiple changes in the upcoming years. In an effort to guide these changes, a group of residents, businesses, social service providers, the U District Chamber, City of Seattle, and 91探花 has come together to create The University District Livability Partnership. (UDLP) is a four-year strategic initiative that is working towards transforming the University District into a sustainable, walkable community. The vision of the UDLP for the University District is to have a vibrant and innovative district of entrepreneurs, major employers, talented workers, and diverse residents. The collaboration of partnerships in the UDLP are preparing to help the University District transition and grow as it experiences many changes in the upcoming years, especially with the emergence of the light rail station on NE 43rd St. and Brooklyn Ave.

Within the UDLP there are four components, which include the Commercial Revitalization Strategic Plan, an Urban Design Framework, U District Next: A Community Conversation and Long-Term Leadership & Partnerships, each of which focuses on different aspects and strategies to reach the final desired goal for the U District. Additional information regarding the different components of the UDLP may be found .

The UDLP Strategic Plan was formally released on January 31, 2013, at the third and final U District Next: A Community Conversation event. In order to preserve the unique and historical aspects of the University District as well as develop new enhancements that will enrich the already vibrant community, the Strategic Plan has developed five initiatives. The initiatives include organization, economics, marketing, clean & safe, and urban design, each of which has its own specific set of goals and strategies. The goal of the organization initiative is to create long-term leadership capacity and partnerships of effective and diverse voices. Whereas, the economic initiative is striving to create an attractive neighborhood for various startups, large companies, and businesses where they can both flourish and contribute to the community. The marketing initiative wants to both appeal to the current community of the U District as well as reach out and draw in new residents, investors and businesses by advertising the best elements of the neighborhood. The clean & safe initiative wants to develop a safe and clean environment that contains resources that will provide support to everyone. And lastly, the goal of the urban design initiative is to design and create a built environment that fits and reflects the culture of the University District community. All of these initiatives create a group of organized tasks that will contribute to The Strategic Plan鈥檚 strategic vision for the future University District. If you would like more information on the Strategic Plan, visit the UDLP .

Moody’s Gives Higher Education a Negative Outlook

Last week, issued a negative short-term outlook for the entire sector of higher education based on its conclusion that every traditional revenue source for even the most elite colleges and universities is under pressure. That pressure, according to the report, is the result of nation-wide economic, technological and public opinion shifts, which are largely beyond institutions鈥 control.

The outlook report, released annually, articulates the fundamental credit conditions that Moody鈥檚 expects higher education will face during the next 12 to 18 months. For the last two years, Moody鈥檚 gave elite colleges and research universities a stable forecast; but this year, the following factors contributed to a negative outlook for the entire industry:

Struggling Revenue Sources:

  • State appropriations are unlikely to increase meaningfully due to weak economic recovery.
  • Federal spending on research and student aid could be truncated in response to the nation鈥檚 fiscal concerns.
  • Tuition revenue continues to be suppressed by low family incomes and public/political pressure to keep prices down.
  • Endowment returns are vulnerable to any economic volatility that could stem from federal tax and budget decisions.
  • Donations are not expected to increase and could face pressure as Congress evaluates associated tax deductions.
  • Financial diversity is no longer helpful as all revenue streams are strained.

Additional Challenges:

  • Student debt and loan default rates have increased and thus challenged the perceived value of a degree.
  • High school graduates are declining in number.
  • Public and political scrutiny of efficiency and degree value could add to institutions鈥 list of regulatory requirements.
  • New technologies such as online learning and MOOCs could provide new revenue opportunities, but could also undermine traditional higher ed models.

Moody’s analysts warn that revenue streams will never rebound to post-2008 levels and leaders in higher education will need to adapt by thinking strategically and adjusting their operations.

But not all is gloom and doom.听Although Moody鈥檚 gave higher education a negative outlook, most of the country鈥檚 top colleges and universities still hold the strong credit rankings. The UW, for one, continues to maintain a 鈥攖he highest offered by Moody鈥檚.听Additionally, the report stressed that the intrinsic value of and demand for higher education remains stable.

Senate and Congress Reach Deal to Avert Fiscal Cliff

Yesterday, the Senate and House of Representatives approved legislation to avert the fiscal cliff.听The deal postpones the automatic, across-the-board spending cuts鈥攌nown as 鈥渢he sequester鈥濃攂y two months and increases tax rates only for individuals earning over $400,000 and couples earning over $450,000. The bill also preserves funding for Pell Grants and extends for five years the American Opportunity Tax Credit (AOTC), which allows students and their parents to claim up to $2,500 a year for tuition and college expenses.

For details, please see the provided by Christy Gullion, Director of Federal Relations, and the articles provided by and

Higher Ed News Highlights

Here are a few noteworthy headlines from the past few days of higher education news:

  • that would hold tuition rates stable for 鈥渉igh-skill, high-wage, high-demand鈥 degree programs for at least three years.听 Most STEM degrees made the list of majors recommended for this tuition freeze, while core Humanities disciplines (such as history) did not.听 The Governor-commissioned task force responsible for the proposal said, 鈥淭he theory is that students in 鈥榥on-strategic majors,鈥 by paying higher tuition, will help subsidize students in the 鈥榮trategic鈥 majors, thus creating a greater demand for the targeted programs and more graduates from these programs, as well.鈥澨 Supporters feel such an approach will provide taxpayers with the maximum return on their investment and 鈥渋mprove the university system overall.鈥 听听However, the opposition, championed by a number of history professors, argues the strategy would detract from the university鈥檚 prestige and lead to a less 鈥渞ichly educated鈥 workforce.听 Over 1,300 faculty from Florida and beyond have petitioned Florida Governor Rick Scott to seek faculty input for future decisions regarding Florida鈥檚 higher education system.听听This particular form of differential tuition contrasts with the more typical, cost-driven approach, under which students in majors that cost the university more to provide (such as STEM fields) are charged higher tuition than students studying less expensive subjects (like history).
  • to 鈥済enerate the kind of attention and urgency that the circumstances demanded for the nation to keep its competitive edge.鈥 The commission鈥檚 mandate would be to address the many challenges confronting higher education (cost, access, etc.) and help policy makers determine its future.听 Given the drastic demographic, technological, and economic changes already occurring in higher ed, Mr. Gregorian believes now is the appropriate time to discuss nation-wide reform.
  • as a means of bridging the disconnect between what students learn in college and what their future employers actually want them to know. 听听Several Harvard professors, inspired by Germany鈥檚 鈥渄ual system鈥 of providing students with practical job-related skills and theoretical instruction, are working with six states to establish apprenticeship programs.