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Four Year Degrees and Tuition Freeze

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Posted by Corrin Sullivan, Intern at the Office of Planning & Budget and Educational Policy student through the month of July 2014. My focus is on higher education access and听policy. I look forward to sharing newsworthy events听in the higher ed world with you.

Let’s start with a quick听summary of two articles from this past week in higher ed news.

The California State Assembly Committee on Higher Education approved (SB850) this past week, which launches a pilot program offering fifteen community colleges the opportunity to offer a four-year degree program as soon as January 1, 2015. The Community College Board of Governors and chancellor, in consultation with the California State University (CSU) and University of California (UC) systems, will consider a variety of colleges and select fifteen districts based on four-year degree proposals that meet a variety of criteria; most notably, degrees not available at any of California鈥檚 four-year schools and that address the state鈥檚 unmet workforce needs. Although the UC system has yet to comment on SB850, California鈥檚 Community College Chancellor, Brice Harris, commends the Assembly Committee鈥檚 approval of legislation stating that it has the potential to broaden higher educational access and offer more job training opportunities for Californians.

The North Dakota Board of Higher Education recently approved its biennium budget request, which asks for an approximate 14 percent increase in funding in exchange for freezing tuition rates among its eleven colleges and universities for the coming biennium (2015-17). Based on a new funding formula instituted in the 2013 legislative session that relies largely on credit-hour completion, the budget鈥檚 $774 base request reflects a $94 million dollar increase from the previous year鈥檚 request. The $94 million dollar increase includes a $49 million dollar request to cover operating costs associated with additional credits taken at the state鈥檚 colleges and universities. In addition to the $94 million base increase, the board has also requested $9.5 million dollars to cover sums 鈥渟tudents would have to cover without a freeze,鈥� compounded with several smaller requests to meet institutional equipment and staffing needs. The Board states that they will freeze tuition rates at all colleges and universities from 2015 through 2017 if and only if, the legislature agrees to fully fund the base budget and increase employee salaries and benefits. Noting affordability as an issue in declining student enrollment numbers, the freeze aims to decrease tuition so that rates are competitive with the state鈥檚 regional counterparts.

While the Board has frozen tuition rates at the state鈥檚 two-year schools for four of the past six years, this request to freeze tuition for all North Dakota higher education institutions is unprecedented. The budget is before Governor Jack Dalrymple, pending recommendations, prior to advancing to the state鈥檚 legislature.

91探花Plans To Create Startup Hub in Condon Hall

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The 91探花 (UW) plans to convert a small section of the UDistrict into a 鈥渟tartup hub鈥� that will help connect 91探花research activity with the entrepreneurial talent who can help commercialize it. The effort will begin with just one floor of Condon Hall 鈥� the old law school, which currently houses departments displaced by other campus construction 鈥� but will expand if there is demand. The ground floor will be transformed into an open meeting area, or 鈥渕ixing chamber,鈥� where University-based entrepreneurs can connect and collaborate with the startup community, including startups that don鈥檛 necessarily have a connection to the UW. The third floor may eventually be converted into space for startups. So far, TechStars, Founder鈥檚 Co-op, and UP Global (formerly Startup Weekend) are considering taking space on the second floor starting next July.

The Office of Planning & Budgeting and the Office of the University Architect are working on this and other UDistrict planning efforts. To read more about this project, see the 听by GeekWire. For more information about UDistrict planning as a whole, see the recent Seattle Times 听and visit the U District Livability Partnership .

Washington’s June Revenue Forecast Shows Small Improvements

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On Tuesday, June 18, the Washington State Economic & Revenue Forecast Council (ERFC) released its quarterly update of General Fund-State (GFS) revenues. Compared听with the , expected GFS revenues are up $110 million for the current biennium (2011-13) and $121 million for the next biennium (2013-15), meaning legislators have an additional $231 million to factor into their budget negotiations.

While these changes are positive, they represent very minor adjustments. Under the updated forecast, the state is expected to take in $30.65 billion in the current biennium and $32.66 billion in the next, thus the increases represent adjustments of less than 0.5 percent each.

Most of the positive variance came from increases in forecasted housing construction, taxable real estate activity, and Revenue Act taxes. Real estate excise taxes came in $34 million (34 percent) higher than forecasted and Revenue Act taxes came in $54 million (2 percent) higher鈥攅xceeding the January 2008 pre-recession peak.听Lower than expected inflation and employment worked against these gains, but weren鈥檛 enough to negate them.听 Although Washington employment has been slowly increasing in most sectors (especially construction), aerospace and government employment are in decline.

It is important to note that much uncertainty surrounds the council鈥檚 2013-15 baseline forecast due to the Federal sequester, Europe鈥檚 recession, and China鈥檚 slowing economic growth. The ERFC gives its baseline a 50 percent probability and its optimistic and pessimistic alternative forecasts 20 percent and 30 percent respectively.听The optimistic forecast is $2.5 billion above the baseline and the pessimistic forecast is $2.5 billion below.

In addition, it should be noted that, like the March forecast, the June update did not assume any revenue from taxable marijuana sales as the Federal Government鈥檚 response to Initiative 502 is still unclear.

Some state lawmakers are optimistic that the new forecast will expedite their budget negotiations; however, the two sides鈥� have a ways to go before the end of the fiscal year on June 30th (12 days from now). 鈥淲e鈥檒l get closer as a result of this,鈥� said Representative Ross Hunter during a press conference Tuesday morning.

Senate Releases Revised Budget Proposal

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On Saturday, the Senate released a , which closely resembles the budget they passed in April.听For the UW, the two budgets differ in just a few ways:

  • Unlike the original Senate budget, the revised budget does not include a $12.5M transfer away听from the 91探花Hospital Account;
  • The revised budget does not cut the 91探花by $3.2M for 鈥渁dministrative efficiencies鈥� that were assumed in the original budget; but
  • Compared to the original proposal, the revised budget provides the 91探花with $3.2M less in new funding.

The latter two changes essentially nullify each other.听A few additional changes occurred with regards to state employee health benefits; we are working to interpret the effects and will provide more information as soon as possible.

As mentioned, the revised Senate budget doesn鈥檛 stray far from the original. Just like the Senate鈥檚 original proposal, its revised budget:

  • Provides the 91探花with $479.6M (General Fund and Education Legacy Trust funds) for听the 2013-15 biennium鈥�$10.2M of which is one-time performance-based funding;
  • Assumes 0% tuition increases for resident undergraduates;
  • Preserves tuition setting authority, but nullifies that authority if either SB 5883 or SB 5941 pass (the bills would require the 91探花to decrease resident undergraduate tuition rates by 3 percent for the 2013-15 biennium and limit future resident undergrad tuition growth to the rate of inflation); and
  • Generates 鈥渘ew鈥� funding for higher education by imposing a 20 percent tuition surcharge on international students at the state鈥檚 public colleges and universities.

For more information about the original Senate proposal, please see the .

March Washington State Revenue Forecast Remains Relatively Stable

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On Wednesday, March 20, the Washington State Economic & Revenue Forecast Council (ERFC) released its quarterly update of State General Fund Revenues.听Revenue from an anticipated increase in Washington housing permits and real estate excise tax receipts is expected to offset higher federal tax rates and spending cuts than were previously assumed. Overall, revenue projections for both the 2011-13 and 2013-15 biennia remain relatively stable, with a slight net gain of about $40 million across the two biennia.听However, this net gain is negated by the roughly $300 million in additional Medicaid caseload costs. The state and its lawmakers now face a $1.3 billion deficit along with court-mandated funding for K-12 education, which could cost another $1 billion. Their upcoming budget proposals will have to reconcile these demands on the state purse.

We anticipate that the Senate Majority Caucus Coalition will release its operating budget proposal sometime next week, while the House will likely release its budget by early next month. Until that time, any specific impact on the 91探花cannot be assessed.听 Please see the full for more information.

 

University District Unveils Its Strategic Plan

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My name is Julia Martinelli and I am the Student Assistant for the Office of the University Architect within the Office of Planning and Budgeting. I am currently a Sophomore at the 91探花 and I am planning on majoring in Architecture with a minor in Urban Ecological Design and Italian. Within my position I will be writing about events, updates, and news regarding the planning and architecture.

Currently, the University District is preparing to undergo multiple changes in the upcoming years. In an effort to guide these changes, a group of residents, businesses, social service providers, the U District Chamber, City of Seattle, and 91探花 has come together to create The University District Livability Partnership. (UDLP) is a four-year strategic initiative that is working towards transforming the University District into a sustainable, walkable community. The vision of the UDLP for the University District is to have a vibrant and innovative district of entrepreneurs, major employers, talented workers, and diverse residents. The collaboration of partnerships in the UDLP are preparing to help the University District transition and grow as it experiences many changes in the upcoming years, especially with the emergence of the light rail station on NE 43rd St. and Brooklyn Ave.

Within the UDLP there are four components, which include the Commercial Revitalization Strategic Plan, an Urban Design Framework, U District Next: A Community Conversation and Long-Term Leadership & Partnerships, each of which focuses on different aspects and strategies to reach the final desired goal for the U District. Additional information regarding the different components of the UDLP may be found .

The UDLP Strategic Plan was formally released on January 31, 2013, at the third and final U District Next: A Community Conversation event. In order to preserve the unique and historical aspects of the University District as well as develop new enhancements that will enrich the already vibrant community, the Strategic Plan has developed five initiatives. The initiatives include organization, economics, marketing, clean & safe, and urban design, each of which has its own specific set of goals and strategies. The goal of the organization initiative is to create long-term leadership capacity and partnerships of effective and diverse voices. Whereas, the economic initiative is striving to create an attractive neighborhood for various startups, large companies, and businesses where they can both flourish and contribute to the community. The marketing initiative wants to both appeal to the current community of the U District as well as reach out and draw in new residents, investors and businesses by advertising the best elements of the neighborhood. The clean & safe initiative wants to develop a safe and clean environment that contains resources that will provide support to everyone. And lastly, the goal of the urban design initiative is to design and create a built environment that fits and reflects the culture of the University District community. All of these initiatives create a group of organized tasks that will contribute to The Strategic Plan鈥檚 strategic vision for the future University District. If you would like more information on the Strategic Plan, visit the UDLP .

Moody’s Gives Higher Education a Negative Outlook

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Last week, issued a negative short-term outlook for the entire sector of higher education based on its conclusion that every traditional revenue source for even the most elite colleges and universities is under pressure. That pressure, according to the report, is the result of nation-wide economic, technological and public opinion shifts, which are largely beyond institutions鈥� control.

The outlook report, released annually, articulates the fundamental credit conditions that Moody鈥檚 expects higher education will face during the next 12 to 18 months. For the last two years, Moody鈥檚 gave elite colleges and research universities a stable forecast; but this year, the following factors contributed to a negative outlook for the entire industry:

Struggling Revenue Sources:

  • State appropriations are unlikely to increase meaningfully due to weak economic recovery.
  • Federal spending on research and student aid could be truncated in response to the nation鈥檚 fiscal concerns.
  • Tuition revenue continues to be suppressed by low family incomes and public/political pressure to keep prices down.
  • Endowment returns are vulnerable to any economic volatility that could stem from federal tax and budget decisions.
  • Donations are not expected to increase and could face pressure as Congress evaluates associated tax deductions.
  • Financial diversity is no longer helpful as all revenue streams are strained.

Additional Challenges:

  • Student debt and loan default rates have increased and thus challenged the perceived value of a degree.
  • High school graduates are declining in number.
  • Public and political scrutiny of efficiency and degree value could add to institutions鈥� list of regulatory requirements.
  • New technologies such as online learning and MOOCs could provide new revenue opportunities, but could also undermine traditional higher ed models.

Moody’s analysts warn that revenue streams will never rebound to post-2008 levels and leaders in higher education will need to adapt by thinking strategically and adjusting their operations.

But not all is gloom and doom.听Although Moody鈥檚 gave higher education a negative outlook, most of the country鈥檚 top colleges and universities still hold the strong credit rankings. The UW, for one, continues to maintain a 鈥攖he highest offered by Moody鈥檚.听Additionally, the report stressed that the intrinsic value of and demand for higher education remains stable.

University District Livability Partnership Underway

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Staff from OPB in partnership with staff from Regional and Community Relations are participating in a community-wide effort known as the University District Livability Partnership (UDLP) 鈥� a four-year strategic initiative to encourage investment for a vibrant, walkable University District Community. The UDLP involves University District residents, business, social service providers, congregations, the Greater University Chamber of Commerce, 91探花 and City of Seattle鈥檚 Office of Economic Development, Department of Planning & Development, Police Department and Department of Neighborhoods. Additional information regarding the UDLP may be found .

The partnership includes four companion projects: a commercial revitalization plan, urban design framework, community conversations, and long-term leadership. U District Next: A Community Conversation is a series of events designed to bring local and national voices to the U District to provide perspectives of experiences that may be relevant to the future possibilities in the U District. The discussions are structured such that participants will have the opportunity to share their thoughts and ideas. The first event is to take place on October 11th at 5:30 PM. The event is a walk and talk tour of the University District focused on the pedestrian experience. To learn about future events or to participate through the web visit .

New OPB Brief on 91探花 Seattle Campus Planning Initiatives

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New OPB Brief on .

The Office of Planning and Budgeting (OPB) coordinates and oversees physical campus planning initiatives for the UW鈥檚 campuses. OPB is currently engaging partners and experts across the Seattle campus in several new planning initiatives, which are highlighted in this . The focus ranges significantly, but current initiatives include projecting future needs (e.g. precinct planning), systems planning (e.g. way finding and signage), master plans for sub-areas and features (e.g. Pend Oreille entrance and North Campus housing), campus-wide plans (e.g. Campus Master Plan), as well as participating in local community planning (e.g. University District planning).

Planning for Urbanization

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In 43 years, the world鈥檚 population is expected to double.听 In developing countries the urban population is expected to double between 2000 and 2030.听 The urban land cover will double in 19 years and the built-up area of major cities in the developing world will triple.听 At least, this is according to a new report, 鈥�,鈥� that was published by The Lincoln Institute of Land Policy last month.

For the past five years, a team of researchers looked at GIS-based maps, satellite images, and historical maps to create a comprehensive data set to look at five key attributes of urbanism 鈥� urban land cover, density as measured by population in relation to built-up areas, centrality (distance from city center), fragmentation (the amount of open space within cities), and compactness. The summary from all of the historical research: 鈥渁verage densities declined as population and wealth grew, not just in the U.S. as part of the familiar pattern of sprawl but worldwide.鈥�

Looking to the future, the research conducted by this report suggests that planners and policy makers should look at growth management within the context of the following: realistic projections of urban land needs, selective protection of open space, generous metropolitan limits, and infrastructure to support mass transportation.

As a planner at the听91探花, this emphasizes the importance of the University’s location in an urban center.听 Assuming that increased urbanization will continue, as suggested in the report, the University District area is on track for increased density.听 This makes the report timely in its reinforcement of the growing importance of planning for the future听using realistic projections, protection of open space, and an emphasis on听infrastructure prior to significant urban growth.