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UW’s Annual Economic Impact on Washington State

In May 2014,听Tripp Umbach, a national leader in economic impact analysis, was retained by the 91探花to update its 2010 analysis of the economic, employment and government revenue impacts of operations and research of all of its campuses.听 The updated听reveals that 91探花’s annual economic impact on the state of Washington is now $12.5 billion听an increase from $9.1 billion just five years ago.

An听article regarding this is posted on听as well.

A Growing Student Loan Crisis? Maybe Not

A new report from the Brookings Institution concludes that student loan borrowers may not be in such a dire situation as media reports commonly suggest.听 The report, , finds that while student debt levels have risen along with college tuition over the past two decades, college graduates鈥 incomes have kept pace.听 The authors analyze data on student borrowers over the period 1989-2010.听 They conclude that education debt has not become a greater burden on borrowing households.

  • Education debt increased most among households with higher levels of educational attainment.听 Roughly one-quarter of the increase in student debt can be explained by an increase in the number of households with college degrees, especially graduate degrees.听 Since 1989, student borrowers with graduate degrees saw their average debt level increase from about $10,000 to about $40,000.听 Over the same time, the debt level for borrowers with bachelor鈥檚 degrees increased by a smaller margin, from $6,000 to $16,000.
  • On average, student borrowers鈥 incomes more than kept pace with increases in student debt.听 While average household debt increased by about $18,000 between 1992 and 2010, average annual household income for borrowers increased by about $7,400 over that same period.听 The average increase in earnings would pay for the increase in debt incurred in just 2.4 years.
  • The ratio of monthly debt payments to monthly income has held steady.听 Between 1992 and 2010, the median borrowing household consistently paid between three and four percent of monthly income toward student debt.听 The mean monthly payment decreased from 15 percent to 7 percent of income over that period.

Student debt levels have increased over the past two decades.听 The authors conclude that this is largely driven by tuition increases over that time.听 However, higher levels of student borrowing also partly reflect an investment in higher levels of education.听 For the average borrower, that investment pays off in higher incomes.

Governor Inslee’s 2015-17 Operating and Capital Budgets

The Governor released operating and capital budgets yesterday morning. Though the 91探花fared well in the capital budget, we believe the operating budget, as currently proposed, presents challenges. Please note that the Governor鈥檚 budgets will be taken up by the Legislature in January; we are many months away from a final legislative compromise. As usual, we will be sending out budget briefing documents throughout legislative session to keep you updated.

For an analysis and summary of the operating and capital budgets, please review the听.

Average Debt for Graduates Continues to Rise

Overall student debt levels of recent bachelor鈥檚 degree recipients continue to rise according to , a new report from the Project on Student Debt at The Institute for College Access & Success (TICAS). 听The report includes 2013 state- and college-level debt data for graduates from colleges that opt to disclose their graduates鈥 debt. However, since very few for-profit colleges choose to disclose debt data, the report鈥檚 figures represent only public and nonprofit colleges.

  • At the national level, 69 percent of graduating seniors had student loans and those that borrowed had an average debt of $28,400 鈥 a 2 percent increase over 2012. For comparison, in 2013, 50 percent of 91探花undergraduates graduated with debt, and those that borrowed graduated with an average debt load of $21,471.
  • At the state level, borrowers鈥 average debt at graduation ranged from $18,656 to $32,795, and the likelihood of graduating with debt ranged from 43 to 76 percent. In six states, average debt was greater than $30,000; in one state, it was under $20,000. Nearly all the highest debt states were in the Northeast and Midwest, with the lowest debt states in the West and South. In Washington, 58 percent of graduates had debt, and those that borrowed had an average of $24,418 in loans. Debbie Cochrane, research director at TICAS and coauthor of the report, says, 鈥淭he importance of state policy and investment cannot be overstated when it comes to student debt levels.鈥
  • At the college level, borrowers鈥 average debt at graduation varied widely 鈥 ranging from less than $2,500 to more than $71,000 鈥 and the likelihood of graduating with debt also varied 鈥 running from 10 percent to 100 percent. At nearly one in five (18%) colleges, average debt rose at least 10 percent, while at 7 percent of colleges, average debt decreased by at least 10 percent. In general, colleges with higher costs had higher average debt at graduation, although that wasn鈥檛 always the case.

The authors note that the report鈥檚 data have significant limitations, primarily because colleges are not required to report debt levels for their graduates. Only 57 percent of public and nonprofit bachelor鈥檚 degree-granting colleges provided data, representing 83 percent of graduates in those sectors. And , as mentioned, were excluded because hardly any chose to disclose their graduates鈥 debt.[1] Even colleges that do provide data may understate graduates鈥 debt loads because they do not include transfer students and are often not aware of all private loans.

Thus, the report鈥檚 main recommendation is to get better debt data via federal collection of cumulative student debt data for all schools. The report also makes recommendations about reducing students鈥 need to borrow, helping students make better-informed college decisions, and simplifying .

See the report or TICAS鈥 for more information.


[1] for 2012 graduates of for-profit. four-year colleges show that the vast majority (88%) took out student loans and that borrowers graduated with an average of $39,950 in debt鈥43 percent more than bachelor鈥檚 recipients in the other sectors. In addition, students at for-profits tend to much more frequently than students in other sectors.

New OPB Brief on Graduates’ Earnings Report

Washington State’s Education Research & Data Center (ERDC) recently published the , which provides earnings information for graduates from the state’s public institutions. OPB’s latest describes where the data for the report came from, discusses some of its limitations, and warns against relying on the report in choosing a program of study.

Final Gainful Employment Rule Removes Default Rate Metric

The Education Department鈥檚 (ED) final 鈥済ainful employment rule,鈥 which was released yesterday, will hold vocational programs accountable to just one of the two outcome metrics that were proposed in the .听 Cohort default rates (CDRs) were eliminated from the legislation, meaning that debt-to-earnings ratios will be the only听criteria upon which individual career education programs are evaluated to determine听federal aid eligibility.

Community colleges had for the change on the grounds that a relatively small number of their students take out federal loans and, thus, cohort default rates are 鈥渕aterially and statistically unrepresentative of all the students in a program.鈥

Student and consumer advocates, however, have contended that the change weakens the rule and doesn’t do enough to protect students and taxpayers. Pauline Abernathy 鈥 Vice President for The Institute for College Access & Success (TICAS), a consumer advocacy group 鈥 issued a yesterday saying:

鈥淲e and more than 50 student, civil rights, veterans, consumer, and education organizations urged the Obama Administration to strengthen its draft gainful employment regulation, but instead this final regulation is even weaker. The final rule also does not provide any financial relief to students who enroll in programs that lose eligibility; lets poorly performing programs enroll increasing numbers of students, right up to the day the programs lose eligibility; and even passes programs in which every student drops out with heavy debts they cannot pay down.鈥

For-profit colleges with the outcome either, arguing that the legislation does nothing to fix a proposal they see as being “fundamentally flawed.”

Arne Duncan, the education secretary, estimates that 1,400 programs鈥99 percent of which are at for-profit colleges鈥攚ill fail the rule in the first year. However, that number is 500 less than it would have been under the March version of the rule. Unfortunately, of those 500 programs, 15 are ones where students are more likely to default than they are to graduate. 听See the for more information.

Since programs will only become ineligible for federal aid after they fail the debt-to-earnings tests twice in a three-year period or are 鈥渋n the zone鈥 for four consecutive years, institutions will not face penalties for at least three more years. Therefore, it is possible that the gainful employment rule will be revised yet again before its effects are truly felt.

91探花Ranked 14th Best University in the World by U.S. News & World Report

The 91探花 was ranked the 14th best university in the world by U.S. News & World Report鈥檚 inaugural “,” which was released on Tuesday.

Unlike U.S. News鈥檚 national rankings, which focus on undergraduate admissions data and graduation rates, these new rankings were based on research-heavy factors such global research reputation, number of publications, PhDs awarded, and highly cited papers ().听 This methodological difference helps explains the odd fact that U.S. News ranks the 91探花14th globally, but 48th nationally.

“This is about faculty productivity and prestige … It is meaningful for certain things and not necessarily meaningful for other things. We get that. This is about big muscular research universities doing what research universities claim is their mission,” U.S. News Editor, Brian Kelly, told .

The 2015 Best Global Universities rankings include 500 institutions and 49 countries, and provide breakdowns by region, country, and 21 subject areas. The U.S. dominated the rankings with 16 institutions in the top 20, and 134 institutions on the list overall. 听Germany had the second most institutions on the list, with 42, followed by the United Kingdom, with 38. China, which has received a lot of attention in the higher education world lately, also did well with 27 schools among the top 500.

The 91探花ranks highly on several other global lists:听 15th worldwide by the and 26th by the Times Higher Education .

ED Releases New PLUS Loan Rules

It will soon be easier for students and parents with adverse credit histories to qualify for federal PLUS loans. 听Under new the Education Department鈥檚 (ED鈥檚) 鈥 which were released on Wednesday and are expected to take effect in March 鈥 ED will review only two years (rather than five) of a prospective borrower鈥檚 credit history to determine loan eligibility, and will excuse up to $2,085 in certain types of delinquent debt听when running initial credit checks.

ED agreed to revisit the rules following pressure from many colleges and families who were angered after ED tightened the PLUS loan standards in 2011. The 2011 changes resulted in thousands of sudden loan denials and, consequently, enrollment declines and revenue losses at some institutions. According to , department officials expect that the new standards will allow an additional 370,000 applicants to pass the initial credit check for PLUS loans.

Representative Chaka Fattah 鈥 Pennsylvania Democrat and co-chair of the Congressional Black Caucus Education Task Force 鈥 ; however others connected with historically black colleges have for not moving quickly enough.听 Meanwhile, some policy analysts and consumer advocates to prevent borrowers from being saddled with unmanageable debt, and that the new rules don鈥檛 do enough to safeguard against default.

If defaulting becomes an issue as a result of the new standards, the silver lining is policymakers will at least know about it and, hopefully, be able to do something. As part of ED鈥檚 changes to the PLUS program, the department will begin calculating and publishing annual cohort default rates for institutions receiving PLUS loans.[1] That information should help illuminate whether borrowers are getting in over their heads.

Ultimately though, as points out:

鈥淭he Department must do a better job reaching out to parents and helping them understand the terms and conditions of their loans, including the ability to repay their loan as a percent of their income if they consolidate into a Federal Direct Consolidation Loan. Better counseling won鈥檛 solve all the issues with the PLUS loan program. But it鈥檚 a start until we can ensure PLUS loans are a safe product for families and we can improve access to better aid options like grants for low-income families.鈥


[1] ED currently only calculates cohort default rates for colleges that receive Stafford loans.